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Tue Jan 5, 2021, 02:28 PM

Where Trump got all those new voters

Analysis here.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/05/trump-lost-he-won-millions-new-voters-where-did-they-come/?arc404=true

I do think a huge part of his appeal was for less educated working class people who thought the pandemic was overblown and just wanted to get back to work. His re-open everything message must have been very appealing to them, but obviously it was shortsighted given the awful consequences now-- the growing death toll.

Noteworthy to me is he got 1.5 million new votes in California, especially in around LA. I think this might explain better why they are having such a large COVID19 outbreak there.

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply Where Trump got all those new voters (Original post)
LymphocyteLover Jan 2021 OP
onecaliberal Jan 2021 #1
LymphocyteLover Jan 2021 #3
onecaliberal Jan 2021 #5
rocktivity Jan 2021 #2
LymphocyteLover Jan 2021 #4
onecaliberal Jan 2021 #6
StClone Jan 2021 #7
jcgoldie Jan 2021 #8
central scrutinizer Jan 2021 #9
MyOwnPeace Jan 2021 #10
David__77 Jan 2021 #11
LymphocyteLover Jan 2021 #12
rocktivity Jan 2021 #13
LymphocyteLover Jan 2021 #14

Response to LymphocyteLover (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 02:34 PM

1. 3/4 of California is supposed to be under a stay at home order.

In my county today there are 0 ICU beds for the 18 day in a row. Very few are adhering to the order. There is 0 enforcement. After almost a month with the vaccine, we still havenít managed to vaccinate all healthcare workers. I just went to the county health department web page, the word vaccine cannot be found on the entire website.
The state doesnít seem to care about containing the virus anymore. I guess itís anything goes. There are LOTS of brown and black people in this county.

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Response to onecaliberal (Reply #1)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 02:37 PM

3. what county?

I'm very sad about what happened with my home state and I have family there.

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Response to LymphocyteLover (Reply #3)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 02:39 PM

5. Fresno

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Response to LymphocyteLover (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 02:35 PM

2. But Trump LOST the popular vote, and by TWICE as much as he did in 2016

Last edited Sat Feb 20, 2021, 12:30 PM - Edit history (4)

Why isn't WaPo also wondering where BIDEN'S "new" voters came from, as well?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=14641126


rocktivity

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Response to rocktivity (Reply #2)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 02:38 PM

4. Yeah. That's important to remember.

But trump is so awful it's important to understand what his appeal is too.

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Response to LymphocyteLover (Reply #4)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 02:40 PM

6. His appeal is lying cheating hate and fascism.

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Response to LymphocyteLover (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 02:43 PM

7. Trump is great at appealing to fears

Finding and motivating fears in people is where he thrived especially where education is less. Note that Massachusetts and East Cost is an example of that. But oddly New York NY, a lot of the interior west, and West Virginia had less pro-Trump votes, too.

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Response to LymphocyteLover (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 02:46 PM

8. Just like Trump... head in the sand approach

I thought the virus helped him in the election not the other way around ironically. People want to ignore the virus because it is inconvenient rather than following the science because that is hard.

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Response to LymphocyteLover (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 03:06 PM

9. That analysis makes some sense

The Republicans have always tried to keep working people right on the edge. Low wages, poor benefits, living from paycheck to paycheck, make people choose between food or shelter. Saddle students with crushing debt. Now with the pandemic, many families were really between a rock and a hard place. Stay safely at home, use up your savings and face hunger and homelessness, or go to work and risk getting very sick. The hunger and eviction seemed certain given McConnellís intransigence and callousness. It probably looked like you had a better chance of surviving the virus.

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Response to LymphocyteLover (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 03:57 PM

10. I'm sure no vote analyst ever......

thought they would have to derive data from Emergency Room intakes.....

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Response to LymphocyteLover (Original post)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 04:16 PM

11. Yeah, COVID-related issues worked against Democrats, I think.

At least on net I think that's the case. I get the frustration that the economy was ramped down without the government replacing wages. Other countries that had shutdowns replaced wages with the wage replacement rate being very high.

Trump had a ground campaign and did all sorts of things like marketing himself via letters about COVID-related checks, letters in food boxes that went out to people, etc.

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Response to David__77 (Reply #11)

Tue Jan 5, 2021, 08:14 PM

12. Yes, agree. Although we focus on all the crap he did, his campaign probably was

effective at highlighting how he was really good for the voters he targeted.

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Response to LymphocyteLover (Original post)

Mon Jan 11, 2021, 11:14 AM

13. Trump's (AND Biden's) "new" votes ALL came from those who DIDN'T vote in 2016

Last edited Wed Sep 8, 2021, 03:07 PM - Edit history (29)

Trump lost because Biden got nearly 60% of them (which is why I consider this WaPo "analysis" to be "fake news"):

In 2016, 129 million people voted Democrat or Republican.
In 2020, 155 million people voted Democrat or Republican -- an increase of 26 million.

In 2016, Trump got 63 million votes and DIDN'T get 66 million votes.
In 2020, Trump got 74 million votes -- an increase of 11 million votes over 2016.
Add the 15 million votes that Trump DIDN'T get in 2020 from those who DIDN'T vote in 2016
to the 66 million votes that Trump DIDN'T get in 2016 -- and you get 81 million votes.
In 2020, Joe Biden got 81 million votes.

In 2020, Biden got four million votes more from those who didn't vote in 2016 than Trump did.
Add those 4 million votes to the three million votes by which Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 -- and you get seven million votes.
Biden's 2020 margin of victory was seven million votes.


Analysis accomplished, WaPo -- you're welcome.


rocktivity

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Response to rocktivity (Reply #13)

Mon Jan 11, 2021, 11:53 AM

14. thanks

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