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helpisontheway

(5,008 posts)
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 06:27 PM Jan 2021

Kornacki's exit polls show big drop in 18-39 voters

so far.. They are at 13% now and were at 20% in November. I hope the numbers increase. I really thought the new registered voters(that never voted before) that they mentioned last week was young voters.

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Kornacki's exit polls show big drop in 18-39 voters (Original Post) helpisontheway Jan 2021 OP
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Jan 2021 #1
Isn't this just for today? DonaldsRump Jan 2021 #2
That's what I'm wondering PatSeg Jan 2021 #5
I think so, it's exit polls and he said it's just first wave. Hoyt Jan 2021 #7
I'm not sure. I hope it is for today only. Nt helpisontheway Jan 2021 #8
Yes - cilla4progress Jan 2021 #3
exit polls of live voting people. does not include mail in/drop off voters nt msongs Jan 2021 #4
That age bracket Mr.Bill Jan 2021 #6
lets hope they stayed home and safe RANDYWILDMAN Jan 2021 #9
That is what I am hoping riversedge Jan 2021 #12
This is not a presidential election blogslut Jan 2021 #10
Agree LeftInTX Jan 2021 #13
He said the numbers could move around a bit but he was not helpisontheway Jan 2021 #15
oh crap. But maybe this age group voted early??? riversedge Jan 2021 #11
Exit Polls Can Be Misleading -- Especially This Year (FiveThirtyEight) Make7 Jan 2021 #14
3 million early votes... stillcool Jan 2021 #16
Here's an explanation DeminPennswoods Jan 2021 #17
Not advisable to pay too much attention to exit polling as it beachbumbob Jan 2021 #18
Polls are discredited cameliano1 Jan 2021 #19
Maybe includes a lot of Rs? torius Jan 2021 #20
Because they already voted and aren't in the exit polls grantcart Jan 2021 #21
+1 AngryOldDem Jan 2021 #22

Response to helpisontheway (Original post)

PatSeg

(47,613 posts)
5. That's what I'm wondering
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 06:30 PM
Jan 2021

I'm not going to turn my TV on until later. I'll be a nervous wreck and that won't change anything.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
7. I think so, it's exit polls and he said it's just first wave.
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 06:32 PM
Jan 2021

Smart folks voted early or dropped off their ballots.

Mr.Bill

(24,330 posts)
6. That age bracket
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 06:32 PM
Jan 2021

is also more likely to be working. So I think in the later hours you could expect to see more of them.

blogslut

(38,018 posts)
10. This is not a presidential election
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 06:34 PM
Jan 2021

Sadly, a lot of people only vote in presidential elections. All other elections suffer from this lack of voter turnout. I certainly hope Kornaki is factoring that into his statements.

helpisontheway

(5,008 posts)
15. He said the numbers could move around a bit but he was not
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 06:40 PM
Jan 2021

sure if they would increase enough to make up that gap. I did not hear him say that these were only fir today. I just hope it is for today only.

Make7

(8,543 posts)
14. Exit Polls Can Be Misleading -- Especially This Year (FiveThirtyEight)
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 06:36 PM
Jan 2021
Exit polls are usually a core component of election-night reporting — especially before real results come in. They can provide an early sense of which candidate is leading and how certain key demographics voted. But here at FiveThirtyEight, we won’t be covering exit polls much at all, at least not on election night. That’s because pandemic-related changes to how the exit polls are being conducted will make them even less reliable this year.

Even under ideal conditions, exit polls can be misleading. People often use them to suss out the horse race while waiting for results to get insight into who’s winning, but exit polls aren’t intended to be used this way. Really, what they’re designed to do is help explain how a candidate won after everything is said and done, breaking down a candidate’s support using various demographic variables like gender, race and education. (For example, they made it really easy to tease out how the gender gap between Democratic and Republican support has grown with time.)

But exit polls should not be used as a way to gauge a candidate’s support in real time. For starters, exit poll numbers can — and do — change over the course of election night, so you should be especially skeptical of the earliest exit-poll numbers, typically released around 5 p.m. Eastern. By definition, this first wave of exit polls are incomplete: Polling places are still open, and who’s represented in the electorate could change. For example, people who vote early on Election Day tend to be older than the electorate at large, which can skew the numbers some.

As the night wears on, though, more interviews get added to the sample, and the exit polls become much more representative of voters as a whole. In fact, exit polls are eventually weighted to match the final results, but that only happens after the election is over. On election night itself, the numbers are reweighted as more data becomes available, but what you’re seeing is still subject to a lot of uncertainty — especially this year given that the pandemic has radically transformed the way we run elections.

...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/exit-polls-can-be-misleading-especially-this-year/

Not sure if anything is going to forecast the results for these races, we'll probably just have to wait until the counting is done.

DeminPennswoods

(15,290 posts)
17. Here's an explanation
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 06:46 PM
Jan 2021
The CNN exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of CNN, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News. Interviews were completed with 5,260 voters in one of three ways: In-person on Election Day at 39 polling places across Georgia, in-person at 25 early voting locations around the state or by telephone for voters who cast ballots by mail or in-person during early voting. Results for the full sample of voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups


Link: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/georgia-exit-poll-20210105

These are the same numbers Kornacki cited. They're all getting their numbers from the same source, Edison Research.
 

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)
18. Not advisable to pay too much attention to exit polling as it
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 06:50 PM
Jan 2021

representative of only 25% of votes being cast in same day vote. 75% are early/mail in votes

torius

(1,652 posts)
20. Maybe includes a lot of Rs?
Tue Jan 5, 2021, 07:08 PM
Jan 2021

Hope so! Maybe young Rs have decided they want to survive the decade. Yeah right ...

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