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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsKornacki's exit polls show big drop in 18-39 voters
so far.. They are at 13% now and were at 20% in November. I hope the numbers increase. I really thought the new registered voters(that never voted before) that they mentioned last week was young voters.
Response to helpisontheway (Original post)
Chin music This message was self-deleted by its author.
DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)Does it account for all the early voters?
PatSeg
(47,613 posts)I'm not going to turn my TV on until later. I'll be a nervous wreck and that won't change anything.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Smart folks voted early or dropped off their ballots.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)cilla4progress
(24,777 posts)what about early voters??
msongs
(67,453 posts)Mr.Bill
(24,330 posts)is also more likely to be working. So I think in the later hours you could expect to see more of them.
RANDYWILDMAN
(2,676 posts)and voted through the mail
riversedge
(70,311 posts)blogslut
(38,018 posts)Sadly, a lot of people only vote in presidential elections. All other elections suffer from this lack of voter turnout. I certainly hope Kornaki is factoring that into his statements.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)sure if they would increase enough to make up that gap. I did not hear him say that these were only fir today. I just hope it is for today only.
riversedge
(70,311 posts)Make7
(8,543 posts)Even under ideal conditions, exit polls can be misleading. People often use them to suss out the horse race while waiting for results to get insight into whos winning, but exit polls arent intended to be used this way. Really, what theyre designed to do is help explain how a candidate won after everything is said and done, breaking down a candidates support using various demographic variables like gender, race and education. (For example, they made it really easy to tease out how the gender gap between Democratic and Republican support has grown with time.)
But exit polls should not be used as a way to gauge a candidates support in real time. For starters, exit poll numbers can and do change over the course of election night, so you should be especially skeptical of the earliest exit-poll numbers, typically released around 5 p.m. Eastern. By definition, this first wave of exit polls are incomplete: Polling places are still open, and whos represented in the electorate could change. For example, people who vote early on Election Day tend to be older than the electorate at large, which can skew the numbers some.
As the night wears on, though, more interviews get added to the sample, and the exit polls become much more representative of voters as a whole. In fact, exit polls are eventually weighted to match the final results, but that only happens after the election is over. On election night itself, the numbers are reweighted as more data becomes available, but what youre seeing is still subject to a lot of uncertainty especially this year given that the pandemic has radically transformed the way we run elections.
...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/exit-polls-can-be-misleading-especially-this-year/
Not sure if anything is going to forecast the results for these races, we'll probably just have to wait until the counting is done.
stillcool
(32,626 posts)got to be some people 18-39's in there.
DeminPennswoods
(15,290 posts)Link: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/georgia-exit-poll-20210105
These are the same numbers Kornacki cited. They're all getting their numbers from the same source, Edison Research.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)representative of only 25% of votes being cast in same day vote. 75% are early/mail in votes
cameliano1
(17 posts)Very inaccurate lately.
torius
(1,652 posts)Hope so! Maybe young Rs have decided they want to survive the decade. Yeah right ...