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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDU Exclusive: Gravis Marketing exposed as a fraud Part I
Last edited Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:40 AM - Edit history (1)
Gravis Marketing wants you to believe that this is Doug Kaplan
http://gravismarketing.com/?gclid=COz0t-aY77ICFUjhQgodlDcAew
Meet Doug Kaplan
http://dougkaplan.net/Political_Specialist.html
My interest was peaked when gravismarketing entered a thread with this very lame response on a thread.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021425136#post3
Didn't seem like a very professional response.
So I started a lengthy background check using public and private sources to track the principles behind Gravis Marketing, all of their public appearances and have come to the conclusion that Gravis Marketing is a complete fraud. Nate Silver and Real Clear Politics have all been punked.
Want to have an impact on the election or do you want to try and make some money out of it then start up a website and start issuing press releases with poll numbers. Find industry averages and publish it on a PR piece. In a poll hungry environment you will be quoted and if you do it regularly you will be put into the regular rotation. And you never have to make a single phone call.
Gravis Marketing promises to be the cheapest in the business. Well there is one way to undercut the others, save on direct expenses like a telemarketing center.
It triggered Daily Kos to ask the question who are these guys and nothing came substantial came up.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/11/1130526/-Weird-Obama-Romney-Poll-I-Need-your-Input
This is like the Sherlock's case of the dog that didn't bark. Check out the three 'officers' of the company and nothing comes up. No academic, professional or occupational hits.
They are
Doug Kaplan
Chad Miller
Bobby Hymel.
They have between 2 to 4 employees.
As a Managing Partner in one of US largest consulting companies between 1994 and 2000 I was thousands of business resumes. This is one of the thinest I have ever seen.
http://dougkaplan.net/Political_Specialist.html
So he promotes himself as a political expert and national pollster.
His public spots? One is with some small failed local Limbaugh wannabe in Florida by the name of Ed Dean. The other is on the Voice of Russia, the Russian Government's English language channel and a political show called: Carmen Russell-Sluchansky's Campaign Connection.
He is quoted there as a national US Pollster and Political analyst.
You can listen to this twerp here:
http://english.ruvr.ru/2012/01/20/64250633.html
You can start to listen to him at the 5 minute mark. His comments have all of the sophistication of a poli sci major having a beer induced bull session with a bunch of his friends trying to sound like they are on the inside. Pay special attention to his rambling inarticulate explanation of why South Carolina is important.
He sounds completely uninformed for a pollster. He seems unaware the South Carolina had special importance before because of the heavy front loading of the Republican schedule with winner take all primaries that made it very difficult to be viable after SC if you didn't score in Iowa or NH. He seems unaware of the substantial rules changes that had a dramatic impact on the Republican Primary schedule and dynamics.
I could match his numbers with even better numbers and, like him, not make a single phone call.
Next there is the structure of their business model. Go to any other polling company and the political polls are just a small part of a larger business, usually in doing polling for marketing of consumer products. Face it the general elections only show up every 4 years so you can't make a lot of money there. In fact most polling companies publish polls as a loss leader so that they can attract commercial customers.
None of this exists at Gravis.
But they do have testimonials, all politically related.
There is "Cindy L" in Oregon and "Chris Young" in Rhode Island, both very satisfied and anonymous.
Mike Hardin is very happy with "Doug and the rest of the folks" at Gravis (pretty impressive for a 2-4 employee company).
Mike is also a political consultant (probably a roommate from college) but if you google Mike Hardin political consultant all you get is the Gravis referral page, and this letter to the editor in Sacramento:
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/01/4532351/state-officials-pay-cut.html
The Democratic legislative leadership makes me sick. How dare they place themselves above the thousands of state employees who suffered through furloughs for almost two years and face them again. Speaker John A. Perez derides the California Citizens Compensation Commission. Of course, this is a blip in terms of the budget mess. But why not suffer together through this recession? The political scientists quoted throughout the article are no better. What are they thinking?
Now there is some very sophisticated political analysis.
Leaving us with a single actual political candidate who endorses Gravis Marketing.
And he is a 'Democrat', Chris Benjamin.
Except it turns out that Benjamin is also a fraud:
http://thesource.typepad.com/thesource/2010/06/questions-being-raised-about-chris-benjamin-financial-mismanagement.html
Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/06/01/4532351/state-officials-pay-cut.html#storylink=cpy
After it was revealed that Chris Benjamin, a municipal judge and part time political consultant, is having serious personal financial problems, questions are being raised about his ability to manage public funds. Benjamin is most infamous for switching parties to run for the State Senate as a Democrat in 2008.
Either Benjamin was one of these guys that takes money to run as a Democrat so that the Republican can win easily or he ran as a Democrat because he thought he might make money it doesn't really matter.
And that is Gravis Marketing's great success and only identified public client.
So Nate, Huffington Post, Real Clear Politics have all been punked.
And the right wing blogs are running around with all of these wonderful numbers, and some at DU get their chain pulled.
Doug probably hasn't made any money off of it yet but next time around the Republicans will be happy to throw some bucks his way to get some good PR numbers.
Until then Gravis remains 'non partisan' lol.
Now you know Gravis is a fraud.
I know Gravis is a fraud.
The media can pick up this work and get a story out of it.
Tabbi reads DU and he may have got interest in the KB Toys from one of my articles so this would be a fun story for him, how many other pollsters are punking the media.
I have done most of the work already so some journalist can take all of the credit, just give a mention to DU.
Now Doug Kaplan is going to scream like a stuck pig.
Well all a good investigating reporter has to do is ask to see his W-2s for all the people making the calls and all of the phone bills for all of the calls. Check back on every poll he made and ask to see the telephone bills for all of the calls, I know my bill lists every call I made. Or do you think that they all used the same Vonage line, lol.
Gravis Marketing is a fraud.
Doug Kaplan is a fraud.
And until all of their records have been published and checked that's how they should be noted.
Just another notch for DU fettering out right wing bull shit.
(if someone could take the time to send this to real clear politics, nate silver and post it at Daily Kos, I would appreciate it. I have to move today. On to Tucson.)
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)BumRushDaShow
(127,270 posts)because more and more sleeper cells have been activated here on DU and it will only get worse unless the crap is debunked.
malaise
(267,791 posts)Excellent post!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)LiberalAndProud
(12,799 posts)malaise
(267,791 posts)Yes!
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Indpndnt
(2,391 posts)Most impressive! Fantastic work.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)When I listened to the Russian radio show I knew he was a fake.
Didn't have a clue of why SC had such an impact.
Then when I saw that his only possible client was the phony Dem in Missouri I kmew I struck gold.
Cha
(295,899 posts)' and dismissed gravis as blatantly bogus.
"Clown" was too kind.
Indpndnt
(2,391 posts)Does that mean we can look forward to poking it with sticks when it returns? I love the little farting noises they make when we do. I guess that's what passes for communicating in clown world for the repubs these days.
tavalon
(27,985 posts)freshwest
(53,661 posts)jsr
(7,712 posts)jsmirman
(4,507 posts)Great work
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)LOL
Cha
(295,899 posts)From George Clooney to Jon Lovitz. And, I mean in character, too.
frazee
(61 posts)renate
(13,776 posts)janx
(24,128 posts)Excellent.
CurtEastPoint
(18,548 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts).
speedoo
(11,229 posts)Great to see rethugs exposed.
rufus dog
(8,419 posts)Edit out comment and link, same posted above.
Still too damn funny.
LiberalAndProud
(12,799 posts)Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec Rec
(because I can only hit the button once)
lunatica
(53,410 posts)renate
(13,776 posts)And how extra impressive that you did all this right before a big move. Hope it all goes well!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts).
beac
(9,992 posts)With a "full team" and "equipment and staffing", allowing them to make "hundreds (even thousands) of calls per day, per employee", no less.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)psychic technology that allows them to reach out of voters without speaking to them or otherwise contacting them in what is now an outdated mode of communication known as "words"
grantcart
(53,061 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)Thanks for posting this. I've always looked at their numbers and suspected they weren't quite right, and your research has proven that. For all the talk of skewing polls, the right seems to have no problem with these frauds putting out magic numbers. They obviously didn't watch Sesame Street when they were kids.
beac
(9,992 posts)only says "Coming Soon"??? http://gravismarketing.com/why_us.html
Yeah, it's a sign of "Top-Tier Sotware and Systems" when part of your webpage is still under construction!
ETA: I was going to correct my "Sotware" typo, but decided it actually describes Gravis' services perfectly.
Cha
(295,899 posts)answer! If you want sociopaths like mitt romney to be ahead getting 60% of the Black vote, for pete's sake, we're your guys!
"top-tier sotware and systems" yet they are using Bluehost.com
The domain name was registered on April 21st, 2010... not many elections since then to need polling on.
The domain registrant information went private in June of this year. I wonder why.
Anyone with a paid account on DomainTools.com could get the Whois history for the domain name and even MORE information.
bigtree
(85,915 posts)mouth open
k&r
longship
(40,416 posts)R&
titaniumsalute
(4,742 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)Another fraudulent operation.
Adelson funded, no doubt.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Grateful for Hope
(39,320 posts)porphyrian
(18,530 posts)lamp_shade
(14,796 posts)flamingdem
(39,303 posts)thanks for your excellent work!!
WillyT
(72,631 posts)DURHAM D
(32,595 posts)Do you think Doug should be allowed to remain as a poster on DU?
Aerows
(39,961 posts)and immediately telling him he was biased, and one of those fraudulent companies that tried to make it a horserace. Well, you can see it all now, and it appears I was right on target
Cha
(295,899 posts)for Marc Rubio..that's all I needed to see. DU has been some tough learning curve for gravis.
Ikonoklast
(23,973 posts)I posted in that htread, looked up the company, and laughed.
Justs another quick-buck scammer looking to fleece gullible Republicans.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)proves that "fair and balanced" is creating the impression that psychos rule this country. Lying is Genius. Greed is good. Vague is brilliant. Cheating is American.
Nate factored in this bullshit poll that shows Romney winning the black vote..
Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In CO 60%-40%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251123534
Here's Nate:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/
Now, that was a nice way of saying the poll is bullshit, but why the hell is Nate Silver giving these polls credibility? The poll is ludicrous.
If the OP can expose a fraudulent polling company, why can't the MSM?
Still, if they want to take these absurd polls seriously an increase Republican delusion, so be it.
Just because Republicans are complaining about the polls doesn't mean polls by fraudsters have to be given merit.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021488451
Cha
(295,899 posts)expose a fraudulent polling company why can't Nate Silver?!
AnnieK401
(541 posts)I had seen them used in some averages and thought they sounded kind of strange.
Control-Z
(15,681 posts)If I ever meet a man that inspires me to date again, I want you to check him out for me first!!
PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)Thank you grantcart. Excellent work!
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)I've brought this up several times. They are frauds.
Generic Other
(28,979 posts)You have a sense of how organizations do hiring and background checks that sounds like you have experience in this field.
What lowlifes republicans must rely on to herd the sheep.
trailmonkee
(2,681 posts)on his consulting website....it just screams dufus?
superpatriotman
(6,232 posts)He has that kind of face I just want to, you know, punch.
gademocrat7
(10,623 posts)Great work.
gademocrat7
(10,623 posts)typo on my part.
starroute
(12,977 posts)This is from a few weeks ago, when people simply thought Gravis was heavily biased in its sampling -- and even then they were ripping it apart. Kaplan's own semi-literate responses are particularly interesting.
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2012/09/gravis-marketing-polls-and-reporting-ii.html
PotatoChip
(3,186 posts)Another good find. It appears that even a hint of criticism smokes him out.
That blog btw, was an interesting read. Thanks starroute!
LiberalAndProud
(12,799 posts)Besides campaign contributions, what money trail would there be?
starroute
(12,977 posts)That would be in the FEC filings of whatever campaigns were paying him.
There's also his own PAC, which I mentioned elsewhere in this thread.
DURHAM D
(32,595 posts)their address at 910 Belle Avenue, Winter Springs, FL
It is a smal office strip and lists these businesses:
Central Florida Environmental?
Integrity Restoration & Remodeling?
Mars Financial Group?
Micro Innovations?
Music Teachers Collective?
Pro-Co Inc?
Pro-Rehab Contracting Inc?
Products Llc JB?
Solutions of America?
Total Water Treatment, inc?
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)DURHAM D
(32,595 posts)JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)What a loser this guy is. I suspect he'll have a show on Faux very soon.
Nice work Grantcart, I hope the move goes smoothly.
Julie
trumad
(41,692 posts)Hasn't been PPred yet.
Cha
(295,899 posts)..maybe this one? We can alert his uber bogus poll ass.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)*SIGH*
So many crooks...so many scams...so many liars.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)or some equally incoherent nonsense. And, yes, of course, they point to Silver and others including the Gravis numbers in their averages. This story, and your research here, should put all of that to bed. It will be very interesting to see who continues to post Gravis numbers with just the very weak "qualifier" that they are "Republican leaning." They - supposing these three con artists even qualifier for a "they" - are not merely "Republican leaning. They are just what many of us have always said they were - a pure GOP PR invention, a nothing, a zero. At some point, posting their polls with only that very flaccid qualifier functions as aiding and abetting a fraud, and should at the very least be looked at closely by admins and juries on this board.
Fantastic work.
pkdu
(3,977 posts)Doug Kaplan was Born in Brooklyn, New York, I grew up as the middle child of seven siblings. Early on, I developed a love of project development. By the age of 14, I had read several books . It was at this time that I knew what I wanted to do with my life. Upon graduating from high school, I entered Valencia and Devry University, I quickly found work developing my first project for Discovery Marketing. I learned a lot with the company, as I was responsible for their first national campaign. The most important lesson I learned was the importance of pushing the envelope and not being afraid to take risks. My technique has continued to evolve to the present day.
I am currently a freelance professional, working from my private office in Orlando I enjoy meeting other professionals and following the latest trends. I enjoy attending conferences and symposiums, as well as adding more books to my reading list. Although I am highly sought after, I am always open to new projects. No job is too big or too small. Call me today at 407-242-1870.
Doug Kaplan
(407) 242-1870
1931 South Prairie Dunes
Oviedo, Florida 32765
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Oh my.
I also love "By the age of 14, I had read several books."
pkdu
(3,977 posts)Cha
(295,899 posts)twice. "I had read several books."
mrs_p
(3,012 posts)OMG. My 19 month old has already outpaced him.
IDemo
(16,926 posts)Domain Privacy Service
1958 South 950 East
Provo, Utah -
United States
Phone: +1.8017659400
dmr
(28,321 posts)sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)MSM like the NYT?
I'll send it around anyhow. Great job, thanks for doing all that work. So sick of frauds undermining our electoral process and I think it's time to strengthen laws against this kind of fraud.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)If it is used by others pls mention DU as the original site.
patrice
(47,992 posts)rather than as research. Will share!
Please take a bow!
budkin
(6,688 posts)Thank you!
hue
(4,949 posts)blogslut
(37,955 posts)LiberalAndProud
(12,799 posts)attempted to falsify his senior thesis. Rather than gathering statistics, he rolled dice. He flunked.
We have a polling organization that does much the same, with less random results, and his numbers are reported, analyzed and legitimized.
We've got trouble, my friends.
madrchsod
(58,162 posts)it points out the reason why du is at this moment 1,130 in the alexia us traffic rank...
eridani
(51,907 posts)If you don't have a journal, you can start one. We used to have a Research section, but it was closed because of insufficient usage.
great white snark
(2,646 posts)Whovian
(2,866 posts)Great work.
Cha
(295,899 posts)pushing him with phony polls.
Good Job, grant!
OneGrassRoot
(22,917 posts)greatauntoftriplets
(175,694 posts)Great find.
Progressive dog
(6,861 posts)Also, the name of Thomas E Young PhD is listed as author of some (or all) of the PDFs. Tried google on the name with no relevant results.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)classof56
(5,376 posts)Great work, grantcart!
starroute
(12,977 posts)The address given for Kaplan in one of the comments further up, at 1931 S Prairie Dunes Ct, Oviedo, FL 32765, also appears as the address for something called I Marketing Co.
http://start.cortera.com/company/research/k2k1osr3l/i-marketing-co/
Doug Kaplan appears in any number of listings as the president or the CEO of I Marketing Co. For example, http://start.cortera.com/company/research/k2k1osr3l/i-marketing-co/
http://www.manta.com/c/mm3tk88/i-marketing-company
http://www.corporationwiki.com/Florida/Oviedo/doug-kaplan-P1139882.aspx
And it appears that I Marketing got itself in a bit of trouble back in 2005:
http://www.sptimes.com/2005/02/14/news_pf/Business/Disney_adds_to_troubl.shtml
<Jake> Wood, 27, may have a bigger problem on his hands with Disney. Last month, the Burbank, Calif., company added him to a list of defendants it accuses of infringing on its copyrights and trademarks.
According to the suit, filed in the U.S. District Court in Orlando, Wood and several other defendants representing I Marketing Co. of Oviedo allegedly marketed "Disney" vacation packages without Disney's permission. Unsolicited faxes showed images of Disney characters; customers who called the toll-free number allegedly were told they had reached the "Disney Reservation Center" or "Disney Reservations."
starroute
(12,977 posts)This mentions the company name "IMC," which is presumably the same as I Marketing Co.
http://www.junkfax.org/fax/profiles/FloridaReservations.htm
Doug Kaplan purchased fax.com's number database from a former fax.com employee and is sending out their travel faxes using this database. So if you formerly got fax.com faxes and are now getting these faxes, it's not surprising.
You've been hit by Kaplan and his associates if you got a fax saying something like this:
5 days and 4 nights in Orlando
Fun in the Sun (As Seen on TV)
response number: 800-617-6442; Remove number: 800-603-1712
<snip>
They used to be at 407-215-8565 and were located at 460 State Rd. 436, Casselberry, FL 32707. They used the company name IMC. 30-40 Telemarketers worked out of the office there but they moved out in late 2004.
Contacts:
Doug Kaplan aka Douglas Joseph Kaplan of Oviedo, FL (age 26) is listed on the DNS registration for floridareservation.net. Doug is famous for Vacation Showroom (see Rip Off Report Vacation Showroom (Doug Kaplan) ) and Rip Off Report VACATION SHOWROOM - Doug Kaplan)
Lance Sawyer, Doug's partner (see Rip Off ReportVacation Showroom, direct Reservations, vacation 123,wcc Travel, wholesale Connection Company ripoff Maitland Florida)
Jason Giza aka Jason A Giza (age 26) (has been doing this since 1999; Richard Z. has details)
Jacob R Wood (age 27) (business partner of Jason Giza)
Anthony Alfred Arrigoni aka Tony Arrigoni (partner of Giza; also well known in the travel business)
DURHAM D
(32,595 posts)typical Young Republican shysters
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Watta buncha doot-da-doo's, as we used to say.
It's like the fucking cast from Boiler Room.
starroute
(12,977 posts)Vacation Showroom (Doug Kaplan) rip-off! The company doesn't pay employees correctly. It's a fraud vacation!
vacation showroom is a complete ripoff... first off, they dont pay the staff hourly which is illegal. straight commission. Noone goes by their real names. vacation showroom is located at 2700 westhall ln suite 110 maitland fl 32751 they have also been known as w.c.c. travel "whole sale connection"
lets get down to the brass tax. Douglas Kaplan is the owner. He's a little weird quiet guy who talks behind everyones back. He doesn't say anything to anyone directly because he isn't a big fan of confrontation. his cell# is 407-463-2157 you can call him directly for a refund. he has money. or e-mail him at dougkaplan32765@yahoo.com
Also they only take check by phone. Doug wasn't able to get a merchant account cause noone trusts him at all--actually come to think of it--the resorts he's selling the vacations for doesnt know he's involved otherwise they wouldnt deal with him--so they use other names....
if you get a fax from them just rip it up--actually you know it's from them cause there isnt a business name on the fax - "very clever" it just states you can go to orlando for $99---but it goes to 296.99 right when you call--then if you dont buy it on that call they say they are running out--complete lie----dont buy it..dont call them....dont fall into the same thing alot of people do..i used to work for doug answering phones--he is a complete weasel.
http://www.ripoffreport.com/travel-companies/vacation-showroom/vacation-showroom-doug-kapla-md4ea.htm
VACATION SHOWROOM - Doug Kaplan rip-off It's a fraud FLORIDA vacation Customer Service is rude and hangs up if want to talk to supervisors
MY WIFE RECEIVED A FAX AT HER WORK PLACE SOVEREIGN BANK, ASBURY PARK, NEW JERSEY. It just states you can go to orlando for $99--- but it goes to 296.98 right when you call--then if you dont buy it on that call they say they are running out the vacations--complete lie - they don't accept Credit Card only cheque over the phone - It should have raised a red flag but I don't know how fell into the trap, maybe because my wife received the fax at her work place.
After struggling on the phone for several hours I finally got thru some supervisor named Mary Johnson X 0101 who promised me and my wife that the Refund cheque was processed on April 7, 2004 and that I should be getting the cheque in the mail in 3-4 weeks. It's been more than 5 weeks but I haven't received anything yet. I wish I'd done some background check on the company before paying $296.98 to them over the Phone.
starroute
(12,977 posts)Protect Candidate Speech Pac
910 Belle Ave Suite 1042, Winter Springs, FL 32708
Treasurer: Douglas Joseph Kaplan
Committee Name: Protect Candidate Speech Pac
Treasurer: Douglas Joseph Kaplan
Committee Designation: Unauthorized
Committee Type: PAC
Address: 910 Belle Ave Suite 1042
Winter Springs, FL 32708
Committee Party: Unknown
Filing Frequency: Quarterly filer
Interest Group Category:
Connected Organization:
Last Update: Sep 2, 2012
On edit: Here's the link for the FEC filings.
http://images.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/fecimg/?C00526020
starroute
(12,977 posts)Too much legalese for me to wade through, but they may be of some use.
http://www.legalmetric.com/cases/copyright/flmd/flmd_604cv00993.html
http://fl.findacase.com/research/wfrmDocViewer.aspx/xq/fac.20051115_0000431.MFL.htm/qx
muriel_volestrangler
(101,146 posts)Those are good links for people to work from.
starroute
(12,977 posts)It seems like Douglas J. Kaplan and D. Joseph Kaplan are the same person.
http://www.corporationwiki.com/Florida/Longwood/douglas-kaplan-7558934.aspx
Companies associated with Douglas Kaplan
D K Advertising, Inc. President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Oviedo, FL
Discovery Marketing, Inc. President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Longwood, FL
Fine West Global, Inc. President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Oviedo, FL
I Marketing Company President is an active role held by Douglas Kaplan Oviedo, FL
http://www.corporationwiki.com/Florida/Oviedo/1931-S-Prairie-Dunes-Ct-Oviedo-FL-32765-a1086636.aspx
1931 S Prairie Dunes Ct Oviedo, FL 32765
Companies at this address:
K2K End Media, Inc.
D K Advertising, Inc.
I Marketing Company
US Travel Services, Inc.
Dk Equities of Orlando, Inc.
K2K Media, LLC
Douglas Kaplan
Kaplan Consulting Company
Fine West Global, Inc.
Equity Communications Enterprises Inc
People at this address:
Doug Kaplan
Karen Kaplan
D Joseph Kaplan
Douglas Kaplan
Dj Kaplan
DURHAM D
(32,595 posts)starroute
(12,977 posts)Defendant: Illinois v. Discovery Marketing, Inc. and Source Marketing, Inc. dba Fax Source
Headquarters: Discovery Marketing: Longwood, FL; Source Marketing: Littleton, CO
Product or Business: Unsolicited faxes offering discount vacations without disclosing the full terms and conditions of the offer
Action: Final Judgment and Consent Decree (April 6, 2000)
Court or Agency: U.S. District Court, Central District of Illinois
starroute
(12,977 posts)FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20554
May 11, 2001
Douglas Kaplan Douglas Kaplan
President President
US Travel Services, Inc. US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc. a.k.a. Omega Marketing of
Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. a.k.a. Discovery
Marketing, Inc.
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
1567 Oberlin Terrace 740 Florida Central
Parkway, Suite 1028
Lake Mary, Florida 32746 Longwood, Florida 32750
Douglas Kaplan Douglas Kaplan
President President
US Travel Services, Inc. US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc. a.k.a. Omega Marketing of
Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. a.k.a. Discovery
Marketing, Inc.
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
1931 S. Prairie Dunes Court P. O. Box 521612
Oviedo, Florida 32765 Longwood, Florida 32752
Douglas Kaplan Douglas Kaplan
President President
US Travel Services, Inc. US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc. a.k.a. Omega Marketing of
Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. a.k.a. Discovery
Marketing, Inc.
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
P. O. Box 941990 531 N Hwy 17-92, Suite 6
Maitland, Florida 32794 Longwood, Florida 32750 US
Douglas Kaplan
President
US Travel Services, Inc.
a.k.a. Omega Marketing of Orlando, Inc.
a.k.a. Discovery Marketing, Inc. .
a.k.a. Consumer Magic Travel
Box 522493
Longwood, Florida 32752
RE: EB-01-TC-027
Dear Mr. Kaplan:
This is an official CITATION issued pursuant to section
503(b)(5) of the Communications Act of 1934, as amended (the
Communications Act), 47 U.S.C. § 503(b)(5).
It has come to our attention that your company recently sent
an unsolicited advertisement to a telephone facsimile machine
(see attachment). Pursuant to the Telephone Consumer Protection
Act of 1991 (TCPA) and the Commission's rules, it is unlawful to
use a ``telephone facsimile machine, computer, or other device to
send an unsolicited advertisement to a telephone facsimile
machine.'' 47 U.S.C. § 227(b)(1)(C); 47 C.F.R. § 64.1200(a)(3).
In addition to the violation identified above, it appears
that your company has also violated the provisions of the TCPA
and the Commission's rules that require any person or entity who
sends a message via a telephone facsimile machine to clearly mark
``in a margin at the top or bottom of each transmitted page of
the message or on the first page of the transmission, the date
and time it is sent and an identification of the business, other
entity, or individual sending the message and the telephone
number of the sending machine or of such business, other entity,
or individual.'' 47 U.S.C. § 227(d)(1)(B); 47 C.F.R. §
68.318(d).
dchill
(38,315 posts)Persona non Gravis...
Among other things. Great work, grant cart!
AikidoSoul
(2,150 posts)I'm impressed with what you've done, and hope to see more deep digging like your post.
Panasonic
(2,921 posts)back in '01 - and yes, that's where I lived when 9/11 happened.
jsmirman
(4,507 posts)and some people on the campaign.
Anyone else have other contacts?
hedgehog
(36,286 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)http://www.democraticunderground.com/125193207#post6
"Gravis is not "right-leaning." It is a front organization. Completely non-credible and therefore not worthwhile to post."
http://betterment.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=93245
Also interesting to see who is the biggest sucker / Gravis promoter on these boards. Very interesting indeed.
woo me with science
(32,139 posts)K&R
rury
(1,021 posts)and a shout out to you for one fine piece of investigative journalism!!
Whovian
(2,866 posts)Plucketeer
(12,882 posts)Kudos to you for shining the light on this!
Denzil_DC
(7,187 posts)Now how many more of these minor "pop-up" pollers are similar scam artists?
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)You wonderful you.
BrainMann1
(460 posts)Laelth
(32,017 posts)-Laelth
fiorello
(182 posts)Sam Wang has a great poll-aggregation site: election.princeton.edu . He also includes your friend at Gravis, and your info via dailykos is already there.
I added my own twist: a math-based analysis of whether Gravis poll numbers look real or made up. (They don't look real. He has his 'favorite numbers' for filling in the after-the-decimal-point digit that makes a poll number sound oh-so-real. I mean, if a pollster goes through the trouble to report values as exact as 43.9%, they sound 'sciencey' and must be real, right?)
Here are the nasty details:
I pulled up a poll from the Gravis web site, that gave a number of 3-significant-figure percent values. I took only the last digit of each poll number (- the number after the decimal point, which should be randomly distributed from zero to nine -) and it looked strange. I counted the occurrences of odd and even digits (32 odd, 10 even) and applied the "Monobit frequency test", and found that this distribution has a 1-in-one-thousand chance of occurring by accident likilihood of occurring by accident. That's way too low - suggesting the numbers were, uh, invented.
It is true that I 'polluted' this test because I first noticed the non-random pattern and then picked a test that was geared to the non-randomness that I found. Also, Monobit requires more than 100 entries; I just had 42. (And that a true random collection of numbers does sometimes look nonrandom.)
But in my defense: this was a quick first effort, from a polling sample picked at random, and a more sophisticated analysis would probably identify an even higher non-randomness.
Gravis poll used for evaluation:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_FL_1001.pdf
Last significant figure of each entry:
307173 94359 07797 0559
37 0394517 4913950 532372.
Frequency of occurrence:
0. =5
1. =3.
2. =2.
3. =8.
4. =3.
5. = 6
6. = 0.
7. = 8.
8. = 0.
9. = 7.
---
frazee
(61 posts)results by way of a likelihood ratio chi-square test (x2 = 28.999, p = .0007). Unfortunately, there are too many rows for an exact test with my software.
frazee
(61 posts)goodness of fit. With this, chi-square = 19.905, p = .019. With the small sample size, Cohen's w = 0.688 -- a very large effect size.
Scuba
(53,475 posts)reflection
(6,286 posts)and I knew Gravis was full of shit. Now I "know" it. Thank you so much. A hearty k/r!
outsideworld
(601 posts)since those suspicious colorado numbers .
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)It will be interesting to see how this all ends.
Trajan
(19,089 posts)Great work, Grantcart ....
formercia
(18,479 posts)based on the size of his Gold Chain.
A real Pikey would have at least three.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,216 posts)Damn, that is one shiny shirt.
cyberswede
(26,117 posts)Thanks for the giggle. Nice to see you!
Ruby the Liberal
(26,216 posts)Miss ya.
reflection
(6,286 posts)This article in the Denver Business Journal is pimping the Gravis Marketing "poll" in CO. I don't have any of the accounts required to post a comment, no Facebook, no Yahoo, etc. Can someone please comment at the article and include a link to this thread? I would hate to see the vote depressed by misinformation.
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2012/10/06/romney-leads-in-1st-post-debate-poll.html
fiorello
(182 posts)If the Denver Biz Journal believes this guy, they'll just end up fooling themselves. So best of luck to him! May he be so successful that next year he can retire to the Cayman Islands aling with Mitt.
Moondog
(4,833 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)I am kind of behind the eight ball on this subject. Could someone concisely tell me how Nate Silver has been punked? I check his site regularly and his numbers are the ones I trust the most. Did he give too much credence to these guys and his numbers have been adversely influenced? If so, in what way? I hope someone can let me know. I hoping this might mean some of Nate's numbers have been under weighted,* but that is a stab in the dark. I have not been on this train.
Hopefully, someone can fill me in on how Nate's numbers are impacted....
K & R this thread.
Sam
*meaning Romney's numbers are not as good as they seem; Obama's are better than seen. Didn't want to be misunderstood in using these words.
Denzil_DC
(7,187 posts)http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/#more-35637
Gravis is also included in his sidebar state roundups.
DemocratSinceBirth pointed out on DU:
Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In CO 60%-40%
Sloppy work by Nate there.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)I was hoping someone would say something like that -- that Silver's numbers had Romney overweighted and Obama underweighted. So you have specifically pointed out one swing state where that happened, and I assume there are more. This was something I had noticed myself yesterday, and I could not believe Romney's debate performance (meaning performance art) had changed the numbers in some states that much. I wonder if they influenced Florida in any way?
Thanks again.
Sam
Denzil_DC
(7,187 posts)I saw after I posted that ProSense had posted much the same information upthread.
It's not so much a question of weighting (Nate's weighting of Gravis has usually been low - i.e. the amount of significance awarded its results) as outright contamination and manipulation of the narrative and polling averages (along with Nate's singling Gravis out in his post since there was very little CO polling available at that point).
Digging around a few places, it seems that Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium has now chimed in in the comments at the Angry Bear blog:
Sam Wang here from the Princeton Election Consortium.
I think that Mr. Kaplan could allay concerns by specifying whether he follows generally accepted principles of polling as described by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), whether he is a member, and where he gets his technical expertise. To my knowledge, reputable pollsters of all stripes, clientwise, do that.
http://www.angrybearblog.com/2012/09/gravis-marketing-polls-and-reporting-ii.html
And Mr. gravismarketing has now been PPR'd.
It's obvious there are other firms out there up much the same tricks. We need to expose them.
LiberalAndProud
(12,799 posts)thevoiceofreason
(3,440 posts)NBachers
(16,998 posts)God I love seeing these vermin getting roasted under the white-hot light of truth.
Thank you, Grantcart. Good for you.
I'm proud to share Democratic Underground with the likes of you.
Bozita
(26,955 posts)Science Geek
(161 posts)Fantastic job of outing a confidence-man who's still actually influencing the electoral process. It's an amazing piece of work, the kind of work that I'm old enough to remember used to be done by actual journalists working for news organizations. Now, those organizations are the ones being duped, to their great shame, by this con-men; still being duped as I write this. Just wow.
It's painful for me to see some of the names of the those being duped! People I respected; but I've been forced to alter my opinions about them. Folks who would fall for this guy when cursory investigation turns up all the two-bit, petty-thief, boiler-room, scam-artist facts, are not worthy of an iota of respect.
This is really something! Well done sir.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Does anybody know who the dude in the necktie actually is?
MADem
(135,425 posts)Those stock photos come from all over the world.
highplainsdem
(48,718 posts)progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)I can't believe they'd use a STOCK photo for the bio pic. It's obviously a stock photo...
This is all so very plausible. One day in the early 90s, I met a well dressed man at a happy hour downtown. He was in town working on a Congressional campaign for a republican woman. He fancied me a bit, so he was talking and talking.. about what he did. He said that anyone can call themselves a political consultant. He told me to basically get some cards printed up, put the volunteer experience I had, and I could get clients right away. He had no real credentials, he told me, just started doing it... It's a world of bullshit.
Man.. I hope that this news gets out EVERYWHERE.
anneboleyn
(5,611 posts)so that this ridiculous, manipulative creep can get his due. It is disturbing that one dude can basically make shit up and his made-up, pro-Romney numbers will be cited in a presidential race. And nobody else even bothered to check before a DU-er went after him.
anneboleyn
(5,611 posts)should have serious repercussions. This needs to be sent to every media outlet that has used this jerk's information.
AnnieK401
(541 posts)They look kind of suspicious also.
MessiahRp
(5,405 posts)IMA is a right wing corporate lobbying group and has opposed a litany of worker's rights. See more here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_Manufacturers%27_Association
AnnieK401
(541 posts)Raine1967
(11,589 posts)I created a new op: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021503745
Thanks for the hedz up! We Ask America is another fraudulent polling outlet.
MessiahRp
(5,405 posts)It's funny as hell that when the polls don't go their way, the GOP claims fraudulent polling however they own a good portion of the polling firms.
Raine1967
(11,589 posts)It's just not getting traction.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Excuse my language. I went off on Doug Kaplan yesterday as a fraud for his AA#'s in the CO poll. I knew something was not right.
grantcart, you are brilliant. Now I can go to bed knowing that CO poll is total crap and every other Gravis Marketing poll is worth toilet paper.
Moses2SandyKoufax
(1,290 posts)A-Schwarzenegger
(15,596 posts)Good work. Like to see the same micro-surgery done to WeAskAmerica.
Vestigial_Sister
(182 posts)friggin' groovy Disco shirt you're sporting there Doogy.
underpants
(182,271 posts)great research grantcart - thanks for giving us the complete picture.
They are still at it if you check out realcclearpolitics current poll page
Check their "results" in Colorado on Sat. 10/6/12
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
myrna minx
(22,772 posts)WinkyDink
(51,311 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)I think it has been established that he has ties to the Republican party despite his protestations to the contrary. I think it also has been established that he has been involved in some shady business deals in the past and has inflated his credentials.
However, I don't think we can say with certainty he doesn't conduct any polls at all. You don't need much of a staff when you use you a predictive dialer.
He can just be a crappy pollster with his finger on the scale who has been involved in some shady deals in the past and lied or misled about his Republican ties.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,146 posts)It looks like a brand-new, one-man band, from someone involved in cutting corners in the past. I found a poll from a few days ago in which he said the Libertarian candidate was polling 10% in Ohio, and Republicans were pretty scathing about that. He may be making the number of robocalls he claims, but they don't look as though there's a decent attempt at making them representative of demographics.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)He doesn't use a predictive dialer. Salespeople used predictive dialers. A predictive dialer is when the phone call is placed automatically and the caller speaks to whoever answers it. Our "friend" uses a robocaller with automated responses. A pre recorded voice asks you to press a button on your phone to indicate your answers. You do not need much of a staff to do that but you do need to know what you're doing.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)He doesn't have a sustainable business model for a pollster.
He doesn't have academic credentials for a pollster.
and there is no evidence before he started providing numbers on a national race that he had ever done a single poll.
Do a google search and find out what was his first published poll?
I can't find anything in 2011.
Now let me ask you another question if you set a polling operation that published results but never ran a poll and it was done intentionally to induce people to make contributions under the premise that their candidate was doing better than he really was would that be grounds for criminal fraud?
But putting aside the question of whether or not he conducted any polls or not the real issue is that the media has nobody checking at the gate. They have a corral of people they are broadcasting results for and they never put in a couple of hours to check if they were legitimate or not. No matter what standard you use Gravis Marketing is not going to meet it.
Maeve
(42,223 posts)I mourn for the loss of "journalism"
But for you, grantcart--
MADem
(135,425 posts)I see their rather cheap and sleazy commercials on late-night TV all the time, interdispersed between the cartoons. They have 90 "campus" locations and an acceptance rate of 93 percent, and our hero read a few books when he was a teen, so he was surely a fine candidate. It is a "for profit" educational institution.
The big question here, though is one you raised in your last paragraph--the media has NOBODY CHECKING AT THE GATE. Why? Are they grabbing this info to make a horse race, to hell with the facts, so they can sell ad time? Or is it even more nefarious?
The media wonders why the kids turn to social media and other sources for news and screen entertainment--but when they fall down on the job this way, who can blame them?
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Gravis Marketing Exposed As A Fraud (via Democratic Underground)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/07/1141340/-Gravis-Marketing-Exposed-As-A-Fraud-via-Democratic-Underground
Sun Oct 07, 2012 at 11:41 AM PDT
TxVietVet
(1,905 posts)chemp
(730 posts)"Democratic" candidate for Mayor in Providence, Hard right religious lunatic and head case.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)here are many people that I think will not like reading this. I don't care
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)Historic NY
(37,449 posts)to find out where the photo came from they left a lot of open holes. But I see it already came up as stock art.
Ilsa
(61,675 posts)Spazito
(49,735 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)You're brilliant, and great work. Thanks for that!!!
dawolf
(2 posts)After reading this, I decided to do some analysis of one of their "polls.
Results are here
http://www.logarchism.com/2012/10/14/a-gravis-fraud/
Indpndnt
(2,391 posts)Raster
(20,996 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)Raster
(20,996 posts)We should NEVER underestimate or flippantly dismiss some of the DU contributions to the national political discourse.
Thank you for going the extra mile!
KAPLAN IS A SCUMBAG! His purpose is to muddy the waters and confuse the issues.
Nice takedown!
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Other than that I am 100% committed!!
Raster
(20,996 posts)Raster
(20,996 posts)Southern Arizona (Baja Arizona) is completely different from Maricopa.
I grew up in a small town called Safford, in the shadow of Mt. Graham.
Maeve
(42,223 posts)Lucy Fer
(11 posts)Wow