Some thoughts on the swiftness of the Senate Trial - delay is in nobody's interests.

[althecat]

I am not convinced McConnell and McCarthy have any real plan here beyond trying to keep Donald Trump calm, and getting to the inauguration. The decision to delay the Senate Trial makes very little sense. As does the assertion the trial needs to be long.

Neither the Dems nor the GOP will benefit from a trial that lasts any more than a few days. But the Republicans have more to lose, the longer Trump's defense runs the more they will hemorrhage funders & voters.

Back to the Dems. There is no upside for them to giving any breath to anything Trump related. The best amount of attention for Trump to be getting is zero, and for the country to look to the future. There is limitless work to be done, Covid, the economy and fixing a broken Govt.

As for the public, I am not sure how American's feel about all this. But I for one just want this all to be over. To never hear Trump's name again and instead to hear news that America is soberly and carefully restoring itself after a five year Trump nightmare.

And here is another dynamic for the public which all parties to this catastrophe need to keep in mind. Right now the American Voting public are in a state of shock. This provides an opportunity for change and transformation. But the window is closing. Desensitization.

For McConnel and McCarthy Every additional day of a Trump trial, including the waiting period, is a day of additional harm to the GOP & for more focus and association with the disaster that is Trump. To prolong this is invite grotesque self harm.

The mechanism for self-harm is also self reinforcing, a negative cycle of GOP reps saying dumb stuff > incandescent media coverage > nutters responding with violence >>> repeating continuously. To save both America and the GOP really have no choice but to try to shut this down.

[This post is a version of a twitter thread also @althecat.]

[servermsh]

1. Pelosi should wait until Schumer is in control. Schumer can send it to committee n/t

[duforsure]

2. They may be holding off to get more information against trump,

To make sure they can have the needed votes to convict him.

[Mike 03]

3. I was of the same opinion, thinking we should strike while memories are fresh and

anger is high, and there might be fierce pressure on Senate GOP to convict. I have to admit, after listening closely to an interview with historian/fascism expert Timothy Snyder, he convinced me there are advantages to taking some time to more fully investigate this and connect all the dots. Snyder has been giving interviews over the last few days about this. I see pros and cons both ways, but that guy is so intelligent that I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.

[Blues Heron]

4. It's one charge. It's essentially an up or down vote.

they could do it today have him gone this afternoon. Why is this monster still in our house. This is insane and has gone on far too long. These pukes need to be held to account for inflicting this on us. They had a chance to get rid of this obvious psycho, and now look where we are - 5 dead at the capitol, Mall closed, National Guard deployed in the streets of DC, IED threats etc etc. When will these sickos step up and do the right thing? Ever?

[soothsayer]

5. I think so much scary evidence is going to come out about the officials involved

... that it’s fine to wait

[kentuck]

6. Would it be advantageous for Republicans to immediately vote to acquit?

If they did that, there would be a long investigation which would probably not look too good for them. It would likely be politically disastrous for them.

There would be a good argument to get the trial started before Trump leaves and continue it after he is gone. That would be less likely to be legally challenged, in my opinion.

[Mike 03]

9. That's a fascinating idea about starting the trial before (or maybe the moment after)

Trump leaves to heighten its legal legitimacy/primacy.

Then the trial itself could unfold slowly, maybe leaving large sections of each day to get Joe's and Kamala's agenda in place.

We could do to the Republicans what they always do to us: slow roll them, drag things on, while we fully investigate this crisis.

It would also give us time to ascertain how violent these insurrectionists are going to be. If they create more chaos, I think it will increase the odds that the GOP will vote to convict.

[StarfishSaver]

13. They don't need an acquittal to conduct a longer, more in depth investigation

But an investigation without any consequences for Trump is a mistake.

They can do both. And we're not talking months and months and months. Taking a little extra time in order to gather evidence and present a stronger case, making it more likely that Trump will be convicted - something that has never happened before in our history to any president - and disqualify from office is worth a little delay.

[njhoneybadger]

7. It makes sense to wait until we have the 17 republican votes we need.

It is in the Democrats interest to put it on the back burner until we have those votes.
We don't know what the FBI investigations will find.

[kentuck]

8. That makes sense.

Hold off until you know you have the votes.

[HariSeldon]

10. If Pelosi waits until Ossoff and Warnock are seated

...before sending the impeachment to the Senate, then the majority -- the Democratic majority -- can allow the House managers (which might again be led by Schiff) to dig and dig and dig some more into who was involved in planning this insurrection, with full subpoena powers backed by Biden's DOJ, and no Presidential privilege against giving testimony.

[Johnny2X2X]

11. If McConnell truly does want to convict to rid the party of Trump

Delay may be his best chance. Trump will start to fade away next week, this will make Senators more willing to vote against a man who no longer has the bully pulpit of the Presidency.

[StarfishSaver]

12. I think they're delaying for two important reasons:

1. To gather more solid evidence in Trump. I know some people will say "Good Lord! We all saw it!" What more evidence do we need?" But I am sure there our volumes of solid evidence linking him directly to what happened and will make allow them to put together an airtight case against Trump and make it very difficult for all but a handful of Republican senators to vote to acquit.

2. To ensure they're trying the case to a senate under the control of Chuck Schumer and the Democrats, who will determine all the rules of the trial.

[althecat]

14. The decay in interest which comes from public desensitization is the problem that comes from a delay

Collectively we are like the boiling frog. Trump's reign has shown clearly that once the population collectively get used to a situation they pay less notice. Moreover tolerance for news that is inherently disturbing is limited. People will turn off.

While both parties are negatively affected by a delay - the longer the delay the more damage is done to the GOP as everybody knows how the Democratic Senate will vote. And they GOP continues to receive wall to all negative press.

The Democrats hold the whip hand here and they should use it.

At the very least Pelosi should submit the article and force McConnell to make a decision.

The story then becomes what is McConnell waiting for. The Capitol has been attacked and he is sitting on his hands. A non-response will look cowardly and weak. A response accepting that the trial will take place as soon as Schumer takes over begins the debate over conviction, assures a swift trial.

Either way after the GA Senators are seated Schumer takes control of the process.

As for the argument about investigations continuing. This will happen regardless. It will be painful but it will be necessary. But the source of the fire is Trump and erasing him is the only way to create conditions which can ultimately lead to the end.