Are Republicans really going to abandon Trump in 2022 and 2024?

[Polybius]

Right now, he's more hated and his approval ratings are the lowest they've ever been, but will it stay like that in Republican minds? People have very short memories when it comes to politics. It's always been a "What have you done for me lately?" thing.

So what's the prediction for 2022? Will Trump candidates win or lose their GOP primaries? Will a Romney-type (Haley) win the nomination in 2024, will will it be Cruz or someone like him?

[servermsh]

1. They are going to fight, fight, fight each other. And it will be glorious. n/t

[Aristus]

2. If Trump isn't dead, he's going to be too tied up in legal cases to campaign.

I'm sure the RNC is going to be receiving lots of visits from the Lincoln Project, urging them to devote money and time to more traditional Republican prospects.

[Polybius]

5. I'm not talking about Trump personally

I'm talking about Trumpers like Cruz and others, wondering if the hard-right will be the GOP in 2022 and beyond.

[wnylib]

14. I think the partyvis splitting between

traditional conservatives and Trumpists.

I heard an NPR report about a survey of Trumpists regarding elections. At the same time that they are digging their heels in to support Trump and his acolytes, they are saying that elections are rigged and voting is becoming futile.

So maybe they are dropping out of voting as a means of expressing their views. Let's hope so.

[still_one]

3. Right now they are the party of trump. It will be interesting it they want that label hung around

their neck

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. I predict a Republican split into 3 parties

I think there will develop three parties out of the ruins of the RepubliCon party:

1) Rational Conservatives, like the Lincoln Project, who are willing to work with Democrats.

2) Rotting Elephant Carcass Party: clever but corrupt RWs like McConnell, Pence, and Collins clinging to the remnants of the Greed Over People party.

3) MAGA Q God Emperor of the US party with Gym "Medal of Freedom" Jordan and Graham and a horde of similar miscreants.

[Polybius]

8. I predict more of a split of 2 and 3

The Lincoln Project is hated by Republicans. They are not considered conservatives at all by them. The most moderate liberal running was Collins, and TLP ran ads even against her. The Bill Weld wing of the Party is completely dead.

It'll more likely be war-mongering neo-cons versus MAGA Q's.

[dalton99a]

11. +1. Mostly Cheney/Cotton/Haley vs. Cruz/Hawley/(name your trash)

[Bernardo de La Paz]

18. Yeah, #1 will be the smallest. Maybe Carcass biggest, but not by much ahead of GEotUS party. nt

[NCDem47]

10. This post made my week.

Cackled like a witch reading it.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. The prospect warms my heart too! Republicons are in "disarray"! . . . nt

[Keth]

6. ??

Who knows when it comes to Republicans. They are a confusing lot. I just hope the Democrats stay united and make sure we hold onto the House in 2022 - if the Repubs somehow get control I could see impeachment as their first line of business. Biden stubbed his toe, therefore he must be impeached.

[CentralMass]

7. I predict that they are going to be as dirty and unfied as usually

[mcar]

9. And abandon their base?

It's a conundrum for sure. I, for one, will enjoy watching it.

[Mike 03]

12. I'm no good at predictions. One thing not many people are talking about

is the possibility that the most hardcore MAGAts could break with Trump. There were a couple of fascinating stories right after the insurrection saying that on Parler and other far-right platforms, a lot of the people who went to the Capitol were furious at Trump for leading them into this action without giving them instructions of what to do when they got to the Capitol. Many also thought he really was going with them. They were under the impression there was a plan, but nobody told them what to do.

Some of the far, far right fanatics have grown disillusioned with Trump because he started off well but lost his way in their opinions. (Racists like Richard Spencer and his group, some in the Christian Nationalist movement. Early on, Steve Bannon said similar things, but apparently has come back into the fold.).

There was a key moment during the rise of the Nazis where the SA almost broke in half because Hitler was Chancellor but they thought he wasn't doing anything, wasn't moving forward quickly enough with the agenda. The Night of the Long Knives was in part a response to that fear of a rupture within the party.

These militant types are very independent, nihilistic, cocky and self confident and they may feel they have enough power to go out on their own, coalesce around a new leader. I don't think that deep down they believe in the concept of a "leader" or the idea they need a leader. Trump just came along at the right time and lent them legitimacy.

Trump's purpose may have been served. He's spent, he's exhausted, and possibly useless.

If there are any signs of that happening, I believe Republican politicians would break from Trump in a second. They are already fretting about this recent poll showing Republican support for Trump has dropped about a third in the last few days.

[Vivienne235729]

13. I think when it all cools down, they will. This is why trump has been so diligent to keep feeding

them blood and hate.

[CaptainTruth]

15. I think it's more a question of "are Trumpers going to abandon the GOP"?

Right now Trumpers hate the GOP, they feel betrayed, every GOP member who didn't fight to overturn the election is a "RINO" to them, & they want to form their own party.

Right now it looks like a major fracture in the Republican party, & I'm hoping they keep it up at least through 2024.

One thing that makes me hopeful is that a lot of these folks have no real loyalty to the GOP, it's not like they're life-long diehard Republicans. They're Trumpers, they're loyal to Trump, not the party.

[Mike 03]

19. Excellent.

Exactly. Many of Trump's followers are not inherently political. They are not loyal to the Republican party. So for people like Cruz, Hawley, Rubio,Ron Johnson or anybody else to bank on their support is really a throw of the dice.

The wild card might be Don Jr. or another Trump (Ivanka, Eric?).

I'm extremely dubious that Trump loyalty will extend even to his children. It sounds crazy, but I can see it going to a media figure like Alex Jones or Mark Levin before I could imagine it going to a politician.

[catbyte]

16. I suck at predictions regarding that thing, but I get the sense his influence will wane. He said it

himself--he wouldn't be where he was if not for Twitter. I think once he's ousted from the White House, it will be difficult for him to retain his grip on the gop. He will no longer be able to call a press conference at a moment's notice or spew crap on the Internet for everyday Americans to see. They'd have to access right-wing sites and I doubt that the majority will. Oh, sure, the vile nut jobs will still worship him, but he's finished in a general election. Plus, I'd be surprised if he would put himself in the position of another potential ego-crushing loss, but what do I know. I'm not a psychopathic, malignant narcissist so I don't know what he'll do.

[Cosmocat]

20. N O

Unless he is convicted of the impeachment and then they pass the measure stating he can't hold federal office again and/or he is successfully charged and convicted of whatever other crimes he has done AND there is a shit ton off accountability both electorally and criminally for all the lunatics in congress who were involved with last week, if there is not SERIOUS accountability, criminally and electorally for the BOTH him and the R party, the same shit will happen as happened in 2016 ...

He will run with a bunch of other wanna bes, who wash out what little not full on hate/crazy voters they have, he will win the nomination, and regardless of who it is, the rest of them will fold in again cause the dem will be the real problem - coin flip, could break like it did for Hill or like it did for Joe.