PPP: Paul Trails Gingrich by 1% (in Iowa)

[Tiggeroshii]

Raleigh, N.C. – There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential
race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all
the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at
16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman
at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

I sense a new Republican frontrunner in the near future...

[Joe the Revelator]

1. Look at Huntsman's late surge....Nt

[Old and In the Way]

2. I wonder how Paul will handle being a frontrunner?

Seriously, I can see the Teapublican voter triangulating between Gingrich and Romney and start to get behind Ron Paul. He's not a serial adulterer and he's not a liberal mormon. He's not a religious nut (Santorum), or a moron (Perry) or a plain old nut like Bachmann. He's not very exciting, though. Except for his position on the wars, his ideas for domestic policy is pretty much looney tunes, but I don't see that being a deal breaker with the Republican primary voter...hell, they believe they'd love a zero funded federal government.

If Herman Cain (remember him?) could lead the pack, I really don't see why Ron Paul couldn't get traction. But what intrigues me, is he's never been really, really been in the spotlight. He's been relatively shunned in Congress by his own Party and this is his 2nd or 3rd run for President. He's always been ignored by the media pundits and the voters. How will Ron handle center stage and a high pressure / high visibility perch as the frontrunner? Will he maintain the unflappable, uninspiring persona or will we see a completely different guy when people start to really pay attention to his message and start challenging his visions for this country's future?

[opihimoimoi]

3. Holy Bat Shit...GOPers going into frenzy during final 6 weeks when main runner reaches the

end zone.

Noot is OUT as too mean...too volitol, angry, and too extreme... he is outta touch

Paul??? Who woulda thought...but then.....who else?

Bachmann?

Huntsman?

[ellisonz]

4. Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachmann are running for VP Nominee. n/t

[Hart2008]

5. Yep, I called this. Paul is also leading Obama in Iowa in the November 2012 general election.

Gingrich leads, but Paul most likely to beat Obama in latest Iowa poll:
http://news.yahoo.com/gingrich-leads-paul-most-likely-beat-obama-latest-181751047.html

The teabaggers really don't have another candidate. Paul is a small government purist. Those farmer and rancher types will love him. I predict Paul gets almost all of Bachmann's supporters, and half of Perry's. He will do well in the Midwest and West, especially in a three way race and the Repuke winner-take-all system. The Repuke establishment will need to force Romney or Gingrinch out to stop Paul.



(edit to correct link)

[AtomicKitten]

6. In one poll in November, Ron Paul ties the president in Iowa.

Your link doesn't work, but here's a link from Ron Paul's own website: http://www.ronpaul.com/2011-12-04/only-ron-paul-can-beat-obama-in-iowa/

Your headline is misleading. In one poll, Ron Paul is actually tied with the president in Iowa, in another unnamed poll it is a statistical dead heat (+1 Obama). In neither poll mentioned is Ron Paul leading the president in Iowa. I realize you are a big Ron Paul supporter, but you're exaggerating his gravitas.

[Hart2008]

7. No, in one poll Paul leads Obama in Iowa.

However, the poll also says Paul is the candidate best suited to face Obama in an election.

Against Paul, 42 percent of registered voters in Iowa support Obama and ... — 43 percent — support Paul. Paul’s popularity among independents could be a crucial advantage. Paul leads Obama 42 percent to 35 percent among independent voters, according to the poll, and he also attracts 15% of Iowa’s Democrats. Not to mention that 16 percent of voters were undecided.

Against the rest of the field, Obama wins a hypothetical race handily.

So Paul has 43% and Obama has 42%.

Within the margin of error perhaps, but 43% is always greater than 42% mathematically, and Paul is beating Obama badly among independent voters.

Sorry, I am not a Paul supporter, (which you have persisted in asserting) but with all of your cheer leading, you mistake a discussion of Paul's candidacy for supporting the man himself. The fact is that in certain parts of the country, Paul's message is resonating with voters.

If 15% of Iowa Democrats want to elect a Repuke who wants to end Social Security, the party has serious issues with renominating Obama.

Denying Obama's high disapproval ratings is not helpful to winning in 2012.

[AtomicKitten]

8. From Ron Paul's own website: Tied 42% to 42% - and - Paul 38% to Obama 39%.

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From Paul's own website -- Poll #1:
http://www.ronpaul.com/2011-12-04/only-ron-paul-can-beat-obama-in-iowa/

"According to an NBC-Marist survey (pdf) conducted Nov. 27-29 among 2,896 registered voters, Paul ties Obama, with each contestant gaining 42% of the vote.

Other Republicans do significantly worse against the presumed Democratic candidate: Romney -7, Gingrich -10, Perry -11 and Bachmann -23. The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points.

Ron Paul 42%, Obama 42% (tied)
Mitt Romney 39%, Obama 46% (-7)
Newt Gingrich 37%, Obama 47% (-10)
Rick Perry 37%, Obama 48% (-11)
Michele Bachmann 31%, Obama 54%" (-23)

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From Paul's own website -- Poll #2:
http://www.ronpaul.com/2011-08-23/ron-paul-38-barack-obama-39/

"Ron Paul 38%, Barack Obama 39%: Ron Paul and Barack Obama are in statistical dead heat in a hypothetical 2012 general."

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Like I said, you exaggerate Ron Paul's gravitas with your

[coalition_unwilling]

9. Muddying the waters even further, Repuke primaries (and

caucuses) up until April 1 award delegates based on proportional representation.

Iowa specifically favors candidates with good ground games. If that is the sole criterion, then Paul wins going away, as Gingrich has no ground game in Iowa to speak of. Paul's organization, I read somewhere, has contacted some 40% of likely caucus goers.