Can someone explain why Biden said there was nothing we can do to change the trajectory

[Baitball Blogger]

of the virus over the next 6 months? Right-wingers are having a field day with that comment. I could understand if he said over the next month. But 6 months?

Biden warned on Friday that as the outbreak continues, “there’s nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months.” The president has repeatedly warned that the situation is likely to worsen before it improves.

While it wasn’t immediately made clear what projections Biden was referencing, one key projection from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates that the U.S. could reach 600,000 Covid-19 deaths by March if states were to ease social distancing mandates. However, the model’s current projections show Covid-19 deaths plateauing just above 560,000 Covid-19 deaths by late April.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/biden-says-nothing-can-change-the-trajectory-of-covid-pandemic-over-the-next-several-months.html

[stopbush]

1. Several months means three or more months. How do you come up with six?

[Baitball Blogger]

5. They're saying 6.

But getting back to the point, "Several months" means three or more. So it's irrelevant to them, because it can also mean 6. If we start following Biden's plan, we should see results in a month.

[stopbush]

11. Who is they? Biden?

[Baitball Blogger]

15. The group of right-wingers who are talking about this.

I followed one of them, so I'm lurking in on their conversation.

[stopbush]

22. Oh. So they're lying. Am I surprised?

[uponit7771]

33. Come on people, damn

[lame54]

38. Don't let them say 6 - Biden didn't say 6

[drmeow]

46. on the other hand

if they keep saying Biden can't improve things for 6 months and things start to improve in 3 it makes Biden look good.

[Squinch]

2. I hope IHME is not the metric he is referencing. They have never even been close. They were

the ones that insisted for months last year that it would be 60,000 dead. Their estimates are not actually based on any relevant data.

[Pobeka]

3. I'll bet he meant 6 weeks? In 6 months even w/o vaccine 100% masks and distancing help a lot.

[Baitball Blogger]

9. I know why they're hanging their hat on "months"

It's because they're criticizing a Biden tweet against Trump that said, We're eight months into this pandemic and Donald Trump still doesn't have a plan to get this virus under control.

[Mike 03]

4. I'm guessing he's mostly talking about people who have already been infected but

are just now beginning to get tested/show symptoms/move through the multi-week process of being hospitalized and/or recovery. Meanwhile, many of those presymptomatic people have been spreading the virus to other people who then will begin the same process with a 7-14 day lag. It can be a long timeline from first exposure to final outcome.

There is also the more problematic issue of slowly changing peoples behavior. The CovIDIOTS are going to have to understand they need to mask up, social distance. They won't do this overnight.

[Baitball Blogger]

7. Again, then we should start seeing results in a month, shouldn't we?

[Mike 03]

12. I'm thinking more like six to eight weeks.

But I don't know.

When we've had major lockdowns in states, hasn't it usually taken six to eight weeks to see those waves start to come down?

I'm worried about people who get their first vaccination shots not understanding they still need to mask up and that they may be able to contract and spread the virus even if they don't get sick.

There might be factors he's taking into account that we're not completely clear on.

I think regionality will play a big role, with certain states doing better fairly quickly, but others continuing to deteriorate due to poor governorship.

[Baitball Blogger]

16. I think he needs to come out and clarify his statement.

I can even accept two months. But "several months" gives them too much runway to complain about,

[Baitball Blogger]

36. I learned my lesson. I stopped dropping in to keep track of the responses,

which, surprisingly, doesn't seem to be attracting too much attention.

[Mariana]

41. You know perfectly well it doesn't matter what he says.

They're going to 1) lie about it and 2) complain about it.

[Mike 03]

19. Deleted - posted in the wrong place.

[niyad]

39. Dear Goddess. How many people will be vaccinated in a month? We are seeing, according to

experts (not simply our wishes for this to be over) that we are entering the most severe cycle. Your belief that things should be better in a month is based on what scientific evidence?

You know, it takes about six weeks to truly eliminate a flea problem. The corona virus is much more complicated.

[Hav]

40. I really think seeing improvements over months is more realistic than just weeks

Right now, the numbers are so catastrophic. With something like 100k new cases every day and not to mention so many active cases that can infect others, you simply lose control over it. All the measures to check who came into contact with someone who got infected, which is the basis for containing the disease, cannot be performed on a necessary level. The numbers need to come down to a controllable level and the winter season doesn't help.

[LizBeth]

44. Right. If w look back at May and June, we were seeing an 8 week period to change

[Demsrule86]

6. Trump was out of vaccines and stupid people still are not wearing masks.

Last edited Sun Jan 24, 2021, 11:11 AM - Edit history (2)

Trump did nothing for over a year. Biden is working hard but Trump left a mess.

Tablets are so annoying sorry for the garbled words!

[bronxiteforever]

13. +100 Absolutely

[still_one]

21. +++

[RAB910]

8. In context he was speaking about the economic impact

not the disease itself

[marmar]

10. I see "several". Where are you seeing 6?

[Baitball Blogger]

14. One of the Facebook posts mentioned 6 months.

But again, several months means more than three. I don't understand why we won't see results in a month's time. Someone mentioned that he was referring to the economic picture.

[marmar]

17. I suspect will will start to see results in a couple of months.

Promise low, deliver high.

[stopbush]

24. A couple of months means two months. Several months means three or more.

Jus to be clear.

[marmar]

37. I don't think most people adhere to the literal definition of several when speaking.

[stopbush]

25. No. It means more than two.

[rzemanfl]

30. More than two less than many. n/t

[Hugin]

18. It is going to take that long to overcome the negligence of Trump and...

the fraudulent plans and malfeasance.

It's a realistic estimate.

The supply and effectiveness of any vaccine campaign were vastly oversold by Trump and the 'open-er-up' crowd as a campaign theme and a means to jack the stock market with promises of a return to pre-covid normalcy.

IOW... A head fake. A con-job. Sold to an audience of Americans who only want silver bullet solutions to problems which may require a little sacrifice and inconvenience to fix.

[Mike 03]

20. I know it's a horrible thought, but...

Since some governors want Biden to fail, I can see people like DeSantis (and the govs of Arizona, South Dakota and others) not following Biden's new guidelines, messing up the vaccination process, just to make him look like he's failing. I wonder if Biden is thinking about those sorts of "Black Swans" in making his estimates.

[Baitball Blogger]

31. That, and as someone else pointed out, we still don't know what to expect from the new

mutated variants.

[DLCWIdem]

23. With that new UK strain out it is going to be awhile

Some are estimating that the UK strain will be the dominant obe by March. That new strain is much more transmissable then the current strain.

[bronxiteforever]

27. +100 Also the South African & Brazilian variants.

We don’t know if the vaccines will be effective against all the variants.

[Wounded Bear]

26. First off, it's not 6 months, it is "several"...

the problem is that in real time there are built in delays to the system. There are delays from infection to onset of symptoms to need for hospitalization to resolution, whether that be recovery or fatality. Basically the number of infections that happen today has set the number of fatalities we will see in 3-6 weeks in stone. Bending the curve takes time, because we're trying to fix something that has those delays built in.

Now, don't try to explain that to a RWer. Their eyes will glaze over when you try to tell them anything that can't be put on a bumper sticker.

[Baitball Blogger]

28. You're right. Trying to reason with them is pointless.

[yardwork]

29. Stop taking the bait. It will certainly take "several" months to begin to turn this around.

[Turin_C3PO]

32. It will probably take several months.

Six months is very possible. The vaccine program needs time to amp up plus people’s behavior must change. I’d like to see significant progress in two months but that’s a best case scenario, imo.

[Thekaspervote]

35. He's following the science..period. Let what the others say go

[ismnotwasm]

42. Because it's a pandemic

We are just now starting to vaccinate, it takes a bit to develop immunity. There are variable strains. Variable symptoms. Variable human behavior
Six months is reasonable

[Irish_Dem]

43. If people won't wear masks and social distance, it is going to take longer to

get the pandemic under control.

[LizBeth]

45. I read someone say he was talking about the economic situation and that would certainly be true.

I guess it matters if that is what Biden was referencing.