General Discussion

RandySF

(86,193 posts) Tue Jan 10, 2012, 07:51 PM Jan 2012

Nate Silver: Typical N.H. Winner Gets 39 Percent of Vote

If Mitt Romney stays close to our forecast and gets about 39 percent of the vote in New Hampshire tonight, his performance will be highly typical for the winner of the primary.

Since 1972, the winner of contested New Hampshire primaries has gotten an average of 43 percent of the vote and a median of 39 percent.

If incumbent presidents are excluded from the calculation, the average is 39 percent and the median is 38 percent.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/10/live-blogging-the-new-hampshire-primary/?src=twt&twt=fivethirtyeight#typical-n-h-winner-gets-39-percent-of-vote

2 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate Silver: Typical N.H. Winner Gets 39 Percent of Vote (Original Post) RandySF Jan 2012 OP

So, less than 39% should be viewed as bad news. For him ChairmanAgnostic Jan 2012 #1

Romney will only get 28% of the vote. golddigger Jan 2012 #2

ChairmanAgnostic

(28,017 posts)

1. So, less than 39% should be viewed as bad news. For him

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Jan 10, 2012, 08:05 PM

Jan 2012

golddigger

(3,804 posts)

2. Romney will only get 28% of the vote.

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Tue Jan 10, 2012, 08:26 PM

Jan 2012

Reply to this discussion

Kick in to the DU tip jar?

This week we're running a special pop-up mini fund drive. From Monday through Friday we're going ad-free for all registered members, and we're asking you to kick in to the DU tip jar to support the site and keep us financially healthy.

As a bonus, making a contribution will allow you to leave kudos for another DU member, and at the end of the week we'll recognize the DUers who you think make this community great.