100,000 Americans will die of Covid-19 this month.

[My Pet Orangutan]

Covid killed 37,000 in November, 63,000 in December, and 79,000 in January. Perhaps 100,000 will die this month, perhaps, if we are lucky, it will be less.



There is a huge difference between the last crisis that the GOP left in our laps in 2009, and today. Jobs can be regained; the dead are lost forever.

100,000 a month. If that is not an emergency, what is? So pass the biggest bill possible ASAP, and pass it with 50 votes. Vote for our lives; Vote for our people; Vote for the the future. Now.

[IngridsLittleAngel]

1. Should've never gotten here...

But, hey.. The dummies have fought hard for their freedumbs...

And Drumpf got great ratings...

So millions got infected... And hundreds of thousands died...

At least we have pie pants instead of science... And we took care of what is really important.


It should never have come to this. We're all fighting two pandemics. It's beyond dealing with COVID-45. When that goes away, we're still stuck with STUPID-45.

How many %$*@ing more? We've lost too many already.

[genxlib]

2. I don't think this is true

I am not sure what you are using as the basis for this but I think deaths will decline marginally this month. February deaths, while still brutal, will be fewer than January.

Cases peaked on January 6th. Now three weeks later, the deaths will decline accordingly. In fact, I think they probably peaked the week of the inauguration.

It is still going to be a lot of pain and suffering but I think it is declining from here on out. Slowly at first but very quickly when the vaccine starts taking hold. Even with the limited number of vaccinations so far, it should start having an impact on death tolls right away since the elder and vulnerable are going first.

[My Pet Orangutan]

4. Sources

November
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/us/covid-november-numbers-records/index.html

December
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/december-deadliest-us-coronavirus_n_5fe87fa0c5b64e44210423de

January
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/01/us/covid-november-numbers-records/index.html

OK - I got it wrong.That was only a projection even if it fits the numbers on worldometer.

As at January 30, the 7 day moving average is 3,270 deaths per day.

But yeah, the Johns Hopkins figure is 79,000 so I will update my OP.

TY (sincerely) for the fact check.

[genxlib]

7. No worries

I have been tracking this particular trend pretty closely.

I have a prediction that is pending resolution and seems like it was pretty close.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214861773

Looking closely at the death numbers, there is a double peak in the seven day trend line around the inauguration. That is mostly noise in the data due to the long weekend on MLK. I think if the actual death days (rather than when reported) were graphed, it would probably land right on inauguration day +/- a day.

All that is to say I think we are on an improving trend since then. Not to mention that February has 2-3 fewer days in which to catalogue deaths compared to other months. I think between 70-80 is probably more likely. Either way, we will blow by half million this month and start a lingering decline to settle somewhere around 600-650k

I am using Worldometers for data and graphs. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Was about to post this

We've definitely turned the corner on this now. January will be the deadliest month of the pandemic.

In my opinion, and there will be studies down after the fact, but a competent response to this health crisis and the US could have kept total deaths under 100,000. If Trump had instituted real screenings and travel restrictions back in February last year. If he had followed the science and worn a mask all the time as an example. If he had supported the governors rather than undermined them. If he had not called it the flu. Just the normal stuff a non psychopathic leader would do and 80% of the deaths don't happen. Any other President and this would have been less than 1/5th the tragedy it was.

Of course, you know for a fact that if Hillary had been President, there would be hearings in Congress right now about how she let 80,000 Americans die from Covid.

We're over 450,000 deaths now. If things go right, we can keep that below 700,000.

[My Pet Orangutan]

6. Update - yes

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=15036844

But the 7 day moving average on Worldometer is 3,270 deaths per day.

[SoonerPride]

8. We have not "turned the corner"

All experts say the deadlier variants will take off and the worst is still coming.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. All experts is a pretty bold claim

I've seen and read experts who say we're through the worst of it in the US and perhaps 1/3 of the country now has some immunity. I'm sure MSNBC has their own experts who say it's about to get worse though, that's how they drive ratings these last few years, with fear mongering.

This has been pretty easy to follow, deaths have lagged cases by about 3-4 weeks, cases started dropping 3-1/2 weeks ago, deaths are starting to drop now. It's not over, the new variants of it spread faster, and there are some suggestions one of them is more deadly. It's a race against time now, have to get people vaccinated to control the spread, but we're seeing that happen right now.

And we're still at nearly 3300 deaths a day, if that falls 50% we're still losing 1650 people a day, that number is hard to fathom still. And the families losing loved ones in the Spring when deaths are perhaps several hundred a day are not going to grieve less than families who lost people last month. Each loss is still a tragedy.

Another factor is that we're vaccinating the elderly first. If everyone over 65 can get vaccinated, the deaths are going to fall quickly. So relieved both of my elderly parents are getting their 2nd dose later this week. They'll still have to remain careful, but they'll be perhaps 94% protected and nearly 100% protected from it being serious. Wife lost someone in her family.

[Hugin]

10. All things considered, I hope you are correct...

At the very least, we no longer have a President (who, he himself, was allegedly infected) who refuses to follow and implement the advice of experts and instead relied on charlatans in a headlong pursuit of a 'herd immunity' which could never happen in the wild.

The absence of actual encouragement of risky behavior and cessation of stupid super spreader rallies alone will probably have an impact on the overall numbers.

I'm a little concerned we're approaching the historical 'flu and cold' season. I don't know why Feb thru April have this designation, but, it has always been there. The only saving grace to this fact is some of the COVID protocols may reduce the other infections generally seen this time of year.

[North Shore Chicago]

3. I work in the public school system.

Not sure all the schools opening is a grand idea.