General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPrimarying Joe Manchin has to be the dumbest idea in the world.
He's probably the only person in America with a (D) after his name who can win a senatorial race in West Virginia.
TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)Dems just ran a progressive for Senate in WV in 2020. She lost 70-27.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)And lost to him almost as badly.
Hotler
(13,747 posts)I have lost my copy. Thank you.
33taw
(3,343 posts)themaguffin
(5,221 posts)Cha
(319,077 posts)TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)With Manchin, we get at least half of his votes.
With the alternative - a Republican - we get zero.
This isn't hard, people. It's simple math.
BobTheSubgenius
(12,217 posts)Politics is the art of the possible.
Without Manchin, Democrats would not have control of the U.S. Senate. Mitch McConnell would still be the Senate Majority Leader, and would right now be blocking every single thing that Biden tried to do, including appointing judges and SCOTUS justices if that comes up.
Here are Manchin's votes over the years to protect the ACA:
https://www.healthreformvotes.org/congress/412391
He also voted to convict Trump in the first impeachment trial
https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-manchin-will-vote-to-convict-trump-impeachment-trial-2020-2
Pulling a few random Dem senators out of the hat, Manchin voted in 70% agreement with Tammy Duckworth:
https://projects.propublica.org/represent/members/M001183-joe-manchin-iii/compare-votes/D000622-tammy-duckworth/115
70% of the time with Chuck Schumer:
https://projects.propublica.org/represent/members/M001183-joe-manchin-iii/compare-votes/S000148-charles-e-schumer/115
74% of the time with Ben Cardin:
https://projects.propublica.org/represent/members/M001183-joe-manchin-iii/compare-votes/C000141-benjamin-l-cardin/115
79% of the time with Michael Bennet:
https://projects.propublica.org/represent/members/M001183-joe-manchin-iii/compare-votes/B001267-michael-bennet/115
To be clear, I'm not a fan of Manchin's rhetorical shenanigans, although I understand them to be necessary in order for him to protect his seat. I also don't like how he voted on a number of Trump's appointees, even if those appointees were going to pass with or without his vote.
But until and unless he actually casts a deciding vote to destroy a major piece of Dem legislation -- for example, if he were to be the deciding vote that killed the entire COVID relief package -- he is in no way as worthless as a Republican would be in that seat.
A 50-50 Republican-controlled Senate would be a disaster right now.
We need to look at people like Manchin in context. Every viable alternative in WV is a Republican. We can have Manchin's "bipartisan" stance, which is why he keeps getting reelected, or we can have an R in that seat who votes against us every time.
Bradshaw3
(7,964 posts)Slams the door shut on the topic. Manchin may give people heartburn but he is 10 times better than a repub and probably a thousand times better than a repub WV would send in his place.
Hekate
(100,133 posts)BobTheSubgenius
(12,217 posts)I'm amazed you can even find the time to do the research! Thanks for that.
Game. Set. Match.
Drahthaardogs
(6,843 posts)Its the best we can hope for in WV.
75% > 0%
Dont let the perfect be the enemy of the good
StarfishSaver
(18,486 posts)The rest Majority Leader Schumer and the Democratic committee chairs can work around.
BannonsLiver
(20,595 posts)Ill be waiting. A long time.
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)didn't vote for the Rightie tax reform...taking away Mitch's efforts to call it bipartisan...He also voted against the GOP plan to end fair pay rule and make work less safe...and without him, we don't have a majority. When it was important he voted with us...how many times has an GOP type voted with us?
pnwmom
(110,261 posts)More than twice as often as the most "moderate" Republican.
And if he were a Republican, Mitch McConnell would be majority leader.
JonLP24
(29,929 posts)I use this.
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/report-cards/2019/senate/ideology
Manchin is there with Collins & Murkowski.
pnwmom
(110,261 posts)the biggest in the country.
We're not going to get a progressive voted in there.
Turin_C3PO
(16,385 posts)Nonetheless, he pisses me off quite often.
ProudMNDemocrat
(20,897 posts)They want to RULE, not govern. When is Joe Manchin going to get that through his thick head?
TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)That's why they keep reelecting him.
Should he do what his constituents want? He's not answering to Republicans in Congress. He's answering to them. The only reason he continues to win is that he at shows independence and bipartisanship.
Sucks for us sometimes, often even, but every viable alternative means an R who never votes with us.
Turin_C3PO
(16,385 posts)for the 1.9 trillion relief bill and not lose any votes. I agree he has to be more conservative on a lot of issues in order to keep his seat but this bill has no political cost, imo.
sop
(18,621 posts)To them it means following the will of the vast majority of voters of both parties, not simply compromising with a pack of corrupt Republicans in Congress, who only really care about their wealthy corporate donors, just to get legislation passed. Manchin understands the majority of his Republican constituents will benefit greatly from Biden's Covid relief package, no matter how much they buy into their party's rightwing propaganda.
I believe Biden is bypassing the traditional concept of legislative bipartisanship, appealing directly to a large chunk of working class Trump voters by actually improving their lives economically. He's hoping these disaffected voters will realize Democratic policies are better for them in the long run, despite all the divisive bullshit put out by the GOP.
mopinko
(73,726 posts)no, unfuck the voting system, then primary his ass.
most red states arent red. they're suppressed.
33taw
(3,343 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)The QOP has spent decades cooking up hundreds of crafty suppression schemes.
TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)It's a red state. Has been for 20 years. The claim that it's just suppressed is laughable.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)Find voter suppression in WV. It one of the easiest states in the country to vote in.
Celerity
(54,408 posts)least being a possibility, if not a big one, IF we lose the Senate in 2022).
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)this is Democratic Underground. There is no indication that Manchin would switch parties. We have opportunities in the Senate in 22 if we are willing to elect moderate Democrats like Manchin who without we will not.. have majority ever. Perhaps rather than primarying sitting Democrats with candidates that if they were successful would lose the election by 40 points are so, some could work on unseating Republicans. You know help Democrats actually win elections and all.
Celerity
(54,408 posts)stances. I have said over and over that Manchin is the only Dem who can win that WV Senate seat, primary him, beat him (I do not see that happening) and we lose the seat.
I never advocated a prog should primary any sitting Dem Senator in 2022, You have the wrong poster.
I have always understood that we need to be pragmatic in purple, pink, and reddish states and districts.
I do think that some on here take it too far the other way, and want to see centrists/moderates take out some of the higher profile progressives, progs who are in deep blue districts. Go back and look at the AOC 2020 primary threads. The anti-AOC comments (in terms of her being beaten by a string of failed candidates) did not age well at all.
The big tent works both ways. We are never going to be a party that is made up of only centrists across the board.
As for Manchin, I never said it was a lock he would jump parties at all, only that IF we lose the Senate in 2022 it is not an impossibility that he would considerate it IF certain other things occurred as well. Many miles to go, I doubt he switches, and we are all assuming that he runs for re-election, which may not happen either, although I am fairly sure he will run again.
As for 2022 in the Senate
OH - Portman retiring is a big deal, as now we at least have a shot at flipping it, especially if Ryan wins the primary.
NC (open seat) should be Jeff Jackson for us, I think he would have won in 2020, as well, instead of the disastrous Cunningham (sext scandal blew that seat).
PA is an open seat as well, and I think either John Fetterman, the sitting Lieutenant Governor, or the sitting AG, Josh Shapiro (if he runs) can win it. Tom Wolf, the current Governor, is not running for it.
The other Rethug seat that is pretty flippable is Johnson in WI. Mandela Barnes, the sitting Lieutenant Governor, would be a great candidate, and I hope he runs. If he doesn't, then it is wide open on our end from all that I see. Tom Nelson, formr majority leader in the Assembly, is running, and the sitting AG Josh Kaul might also run.
FL is tougher to flip (hopefully Ivanka Rump causes chaos for Rubio) but we have a slew of potential good candidates,
Charlie Crist, U.S. representative
Val Demings, U.S. representative (my choice)
Stephanie Murphy, U.S. representative
Ted Deutch, U.S. representative
Nikki Fried, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture
Gwen Graham, former U.S. representative and candidate for governor of Florida in 2018
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. representative (lost in 2020, along with Shalala)
I terms of our at-risk seats, we have 3 and a half
The half is Kelly in AZ, as we dodged a bullet with Ducey refusing to run, plus the AZ Rethugs are imploding
that leaves 3 at risk
GA (Warnock) with Doug Collis perhaps his most likely opponent, and a horrid vote suppression scheme potentially rolling out to try and fuck us.
NV (Cortez Masto) Sandoval is by far the most dangerous potential opponent
NH (Hassan) Gov Crhis Sununu would be the toughest, and NH just went full Rethug trifecta at state level, as we lost both the state House and the state Senate in 2020, Ex US Kelly Ayotte might run as well.
The thing that worries me the most is our horrid record in the last two initial midterms (1994 and 2010) for a new Dem POTUS. We are in real danger in the House (35 to 45 or so at risk seats, although almost none of those are progressives in swing districts (and I doubt you will see any at risk Dem Reps primaried by actual legit, 'capable of wining the primary' candidates, none (in vulnerable districts) were in 2020 (at least nothing serious).
The only challenges were in the perfectly acceptable (for a primary challenge, and that is where me and you deffo disagree) deep blue seats. Multiple of them won, Jamal Bowman, Mondaire Jones (beat multiple centrists/moderates for Nita Loweys open, old seat), Cori Bush (mixed emotions on her, not that she beat too long serving (he and his father had that seat since the 1960's, and his district said it was time for new blood) Lacy Clay, but that she (Bush) has lose cannon potential), and also Marie Newman, who beat the RW Lipinski (RW on many things, plus his campaign falsely smeared Newman as anti Catholic and as a HOLOCAUST DENIER, ffs)-
We have a good deal more House seats we can lose in 2022 than ones we can flip back (a lot of those losses in 2020 for us were simply Red seats reverting to mean after the one-off Blue Wave of 2018).It is not a great position atm at all.
Finally, just so you are crystal clear as to my stance, there is only one Dem incumbent in congress I want to see primaried and beaten, One, that is it, now that Lipinski lost, Henry Cuellar, in safe blue seat, has never once be held by a Rethug, but he is the worst Dem (no one else is close) in Congress. Anti LGBTQ, forced birther, A- rated NRA favourite, pro drill baby drill, super pro private prisons, campaigns and fundraisers for racist climate change denier Rethug Jon Carter (Cuellar helped cost MJ Hegar that seat in 2018) against Democrats, and is anti immigrant far too often. Now, to show you that I understand how things work, we need a centrist, NOT a prog (like the last two challengers) to take hi on. All I ask is a person who actually supports our Democratic platform. Cuellar, other than voting for Pelosi, is barely a Dem.(in the Congress before the last one, Cellar voted with Trump and the Rethugs almost 70% of the time). All we need is a run of the mill moderate there who believes in in our platform and won't vote to take away my rights as both a member of the LGBTQ community, and as woman, which Cuellar does do.
TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)Sure, great idea.
We ran a progressive in 2020 in WV, by the way. She lost 70-27. Look for similar numbers if we primary Manchin.
mopinko
(73,726 posts)but rly. this ass needs to go.
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)Democrat will win period.
LeftInTX
(34,295 posts)It is red, trust me....
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)once Manchin goes WVA will send a Democrat to the Senate...once Manchin is gone so is the seat And a primary could weaken him.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Because WV is red.
mopinko
(73,726 posts)any more questions?
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Yeah, with organizing like Stacey Abrams we have more of a chance. And states like GA and NC with large urban areas of well educated people we can win. Especially as those states are also becoming more diverse. Georgia should be a model for how we fight in them.
But I have family in KY. It is still overwhelmingly white and equally bad for us, evangelical. Can a democrat win? Sure, their Governor is a democrat. But it took a very bad republican to let that happen.
Im certainly not saying we should not try to win everywhere. Otherwise we will always feel like we are treading water. But there are several states that wont vote Democratic no matter who we put up to run. I would love to be proven wrong.
Have a nice evening.
mopinko
(73,726 posts)the tide that changed in '18 is gonna keep rollin.
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)Losing many districts we won in 18.
Im not worrying about it right now. Just enjoying the changes Joe is making.
JI7
(93,617 posts)Budi
(15,325 posts)We will lose seats & majority because of it .
And that's what they want.
A nation of extremisim.
JonLP24
(29,929 posts)I'm not a fan of Sinema. She voted to confirm Barr who is one of the worst AG ever.
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)ebbie15644
(1,244 posts)they should be flipping other Senate seats instead to give us more votes
Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)
Chin music This message was self-deleted by its author.
Autumn
(48,962 posts)the only person in America with a (D) after his name who can win a senatorial race in West Virginia.
bottomofthehill
(9,390 posts)Autumn
(48,962 posts)mountain grammy
(29,035 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(23,236 posts)Democrats to losing control of the house in 2022.
At this point, Manchins obstruction means Dems have NO power in congress, not even through reconciliation, since he opposes the COVID relief bill without bipartisan support...not even appointing judges since he wont break the filibuster to force a vote on a new organizing resolution, so Lindsey is still in charge of the judiciary committee.
But nooooo, primarying Manchin is a dumb idea, because Dems would lose all that hard won power that they cant use because of him.
Primarying Manchin is too good for him- if Dems add to their majority in 2022 (a good possibility), and Dems lose their majority in the house because Manchins obstruction caused them to fail to deliver on Bidens promises and agenda, then Schumer should strip Manchin of all committee assignments, send him to the Steve King Club. Kicking him out of the Dem caucus might even be worth it.
At this point, Manchins career ends in 2024, he just doesnt know it yet.
Biden is meeting with Dem senators today- I hope he makes Manchin feel the heat.
Wawannabe
(6,890 posts)Tweet in the twittersphere
Musta been a good call!
Fiendish Thingy
(23,236 posts)Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)Democrats to vote with us... accept the face we have 7 moderate to conservative Democrats who will have to vote to keep their seats or McConnell is back in charge. This is how it is.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,236 posts)For Bidens COVID relief bill. All I have seen is him shrugging off the $1.9T amount, but not backtracking on his insistence that, in order to get his vote, the relief package must have bipartisan support.
pnwmom
(110,261 posts)and he's not opposing it.
https://news.yahoo.com/manchin-support-democrats-reconciliation-bill-183600667.html
Fiendish Thingy
(23,236 posts)And it looks like Manchin is still using weasel words about only supporting immediate relief, which seems to exclude $15 min wage and possibly other elements of the package outside of relief checks, vaccine funding, and aid to states.
Manchin is a weasel.
pnwmom
(110,261 posts)For example, here.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/manchinsupports-advancing-covid-19-aid-resolution
Manchin is a Democratic Senator from a state where, in 2016, Trump won by 40 points -- the largest margin in the US. We're lucky to have Manchin there. We would be much worse off with any Republican.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,236 posts)pnwmom
(110,261 posts)from West Virginia who would replace him.
Mister Ed
(6,927 posts)TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)Keep the seats we have; find more. Not a difficult concept.
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)Republicans.
Dem4Life1102
(3,974 posts)TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)A progressive just lost a WV Senate seat 70-27 and people *still* insist that a more liberal candidate should be an easy win.
I don't know if people just don't have a clue or if they're being intentionally obtuse. That happens a lot around here.
R B Garr
(17,984 posts)so if the brand building is contributing to these losses, time to get a clue.
mopinko
(73,726 posts)Crunchy Frog
(28,280 posts)more like Claire McCaskill and less like Joe Lieberman. I know we can only get a conservative Dem in there, but I'd prefer one who is at least reliably loyal to the Democratic Party.
I also don't see how Manchin can lose by ensuring that his constituents get the assistance that they desperately need and overwhelmingly want during a time of national crisis. I think he's more about playing cutesy little power games than he is about either serving his constituents, or getting himself reelected. I hope I'm wrong about this.
It's why we need to build up a bit of a margin in the Senate.
BComplex
(9,914 posts)There definitely is room for a democratic senator in West Virginia.
JI7
(93,617 posts)They are uncomfortable with social progress so they tend to vote Republican . But like Byrd, Manchin has served in office for a long time there so he has a relationship with many that newer democrats are not going to have.
TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)Particularly his first few decades.
WV was blue for a very long time. Prior to 2000, only three Republicans won the presidency in WV in 64 years.
It is no longer. Trump won it by 40 points and they haven't voted for a D since Bill Clinton.
JI7
(93,617 posts)TwilightZone
(28,836 posts)WV Democrats aren't typical Democrats, whatever "typical" is. I'm not sure why that's so difficult for some to grasp.
But then, that applies everywhere. Every state, every district, every race is different. Trying to apply NYC or SF or Northeast US rules to WV is just laughable, yet people make the attempt all the time.
The bottom line is that we have a Democratic Senator in a state Trump won by 40%. That should tell people just about all they need to know. If that's not enough, a progressive ran for Senate in WV in 2020 and lost 70-27.
SoCalNative
(4,613 posts)are the "southern Democrats" of old. It may say "democrat" but their "values" align more with republicans.
mcar
(46,058 posts)Happy Hoosier
(9,535 posts)Can't say I'm a fan of "Barely a Democrat" Joe, but it beats losing to an R in WV
redstatebluegirl
(12,827 posts)People really do not understand that not all states are the same. Hell all Democrats are not the same.
Nasruddin
(1,258 posts)I agree with this (for the reasons cited by others).
I think what this sentiment argues for is proportional representation in the Senate. The Senate is an awful institution and probably the best thing to do is follow John Dingell's advice & just abolish it. Another alternative: look at a proportional representation hybrid system like Germany's (eg https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/how-does-proportional-representation-work-in-germany/]).
If we're going to have a system where a member in KY or SF CA has so much power over the whole country, the whole country should have some say. It's undemocratic otherwise. A proportional representation system is one way to accomplish this.
BannonsLiver
(20,595 posts)Crunchy Frog
(28,280 posts)and yes, I do think that the country will eventually break apart. Minority rule is unsustainable in the long term.
Stuckinthebush
(11,203 posts)Manchin is back peddling a little anyway it seems. Chuck can work with him and get his vote while Manchin placates his crazy WVA voters. Better Joe than an R.
BannonsLiver
(20,595 posts)MadMike47
(168 posts)JaneQPublic
(7,117 posts)She didn't come close.
On Twitter, etc., certain young Progressives keep saying we need to primary Manchin with a Bernie type, arguing that WV USED TO BE the heart of the labor movement and crawling with lefties and socialists, so there's hope!
Then I ask them if they've ever been to WV, and, of course, they haven't. Beautiful state, but you're much more likely to find Proud Boys and militias there than Bernie supporters.
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)just fucking with our primary...I used to live WVA and DC people are starting to move out there but it will be years before we make inroads there. Manchin is just fine.
cry baby
(6,876 posts)Cobalt Violet
(9,976 posts)Only maintaining the filibuster is dumber.
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)He will try but if the Senate GOP don't come along, he will hammer them and/or do it a different way.
Response to Cobalt Violet (Reply #58)
Chin music This message was self-deleted by its author.
peggysue2
(12,533 posts)Every single year, the same howl rises into the ether--purge the blue dogs from Red states/districts.
With the present configuration of the Senate, it's especially dumb. Unless, of course, we want McConnell to take power again.
Deja vu all over again.
bucolic_frolic
(55,140 posts)Senator Manchin has an independent streak. We may not agree with him most of the time. If you have a better alternative, go for it. Let's not deal with illusions.
dchill
(42,660 posts)VA_Jill
(14,371 posts)I'm really no fan of his, but I see his value. I have to live right next door to West Virginia, and he gets a lot of crossover votes because he keeps his fences mended at home.
TheFarseer
(9,770 posts)Dems In safe states or districts makes more sense. As for WV specifically, why dont they try to pick off a house district? That would be more productive.
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)Win Republican seats.
crickets
(26,168 posts)I'm so sick of this talk of Dems primarying other Dems when going after reachable Repub seats is a much more constructive plan. I understand that there are those who want to change the makeup of the Dems we have, but at least get a bigger Dem margin overall in Congress before trying it.
Primary the Republicans for goodness sake.
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)Democrats.
TheFarseer
(9,770 posts)Im less concerned what letter a person has in parentheses next to their name and more concerned with what policies they are fighting for. I fully understand why we support Joe Manchin in WV but if he was the rep from San Francisco or Manhattan, why shouldnt we elect someone that is never going to vote with Trump and unequivocally fight climate change, lefty judges and income inequality etc etc?
Gothmog
(179,869 posts)maxsolomon
(38,729 posts)It's pretty fucking dumb.
Focus on taking MORE Senate seats from REPUKES in 2022.
Hermit-The-Prog
(36,631 posts)IronLionZion
(51,268 posts)Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)moderate or conservative Democrats.
IronLionZion
(51,268 posts)Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)JI7
(93,617 posts)off podcasts , subscriptions and other crap selling shit to Democrats angry at republicans in office.
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(135,718 posts)JustABozoOnThisBus
(24,681 posts)Or self-lefteousness, as the case may be.
We need every dog we can get, regardless of hue. Even blue.
Budi
(15,325 posts)+
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Tied for third place with chemtrails.
But I've learned how much of a waste it is to argue with these demographics. They'll pull any logical fallacy out of their pockets to force the round peg fit into a square hole and the result a triangle.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... and a clear desire to hurt the Democratic party and "teach us a lesson".
Personally, I love Joe Manchin... we're damned lucky to have him!
Without him, we'd be TWO SEATS BEHIND in the senate. Do the math. It's true.
betsuni
(29,078 posts)for so long because they weren't the right kind of "progressive," to have an actual centrist to talk about.
jalan48
(14,914 posts)they are he has no worries.
pnwmom
(110,261 posts)We were very lucky we had a centrist Democrat who was able to win the state.
jalan48
(14,914 posts)Calista241
(5,633 posts)So prepare to lose this seat in 2024.
LiberalFighter
(53,544 posts)VarryOn
(2,343 posts)2 or 3 votes where he'll disappoint us in a big way. The question is which votes. We need him desperately, and he knows it and will use it.
Mike Niendorff
(3,650 posts)Things change.
Especially when progressives actually start fighting back.
MDN