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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDavid Paleologos (Suffolk U) latest VA poll shows Obama +2, announces "unwinnable for Obama"
Latest Suffolk Poll 9/27
http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/53562.html
President Barack Obama (46 percent) clings to a 2-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney (44 percent), in a swing-state nail-biter, according to a Suffolk University/NBC12 (WWBT-Richmond) poll of likely general-election voters in Virginia. Seven percent were undecided.
The race is close with survey results within the statistical margin of error despite a decided popularity advantage for Obama. He boasted a +8 (52 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable) to Romneys -3 (42 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable).
Barack Obama shows personal popularity and strength, especially outside of the D.C. area in northern Virginia, said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.
and today
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/pollster_says_obama_cant_win_fl_nc_and_va.html#050759a
Pollster David Paleologos of Suffolk University told Bill O'Reilly that his organization will not be doing any further polls in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia because he believes President Obama has no chance to win those states.
If I ever ran a company the way that these guys carry on I would have been closed on day one.
And no one bothers to click on their website to see what the guys own polls show. Oh yeah he was on Fox.
What a farce.
This isn't about cherry picking polls this is about a pattern of incompetence and willful misrepresentation that if it were a lawyer or a doctor would get you a malpractice suit. (By the way did you note that the last poll was 'likely voters' usually the most disadvantageous way to poll for Democrats?
But hey in an industry where an unemployed DeVry graduate can get to the head of the class over night why ask questions.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)Well good riddance, that's a ridiculous statement. Must be for financial reasons or something.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)His polls suggest Obama will win the state.
porphyrian
(18,530 posts)...the republicans tied to the voter registration fraud.
Obama is leading, among likely voters, no less, but can not win? Bizarro world, indeed.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)Don't get what he's thinking. The pollsters have been getting weirder and weirder.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)and FL is now pink. VA is still light blue. NC is pink.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)So this presumptuous little fellow made his grand sweeping pronouncement while interviewing with none other than the grand master bloviator himself, Bill O'Reilly. Here is the transcript in full:
O'Reilly: [Asks a question about other states, such as Pennsylvania, Iowa, Nevada, etc]
Paleologos: ...I think In places like North Carolina, Florida, Virginia - we've already painted those red. We're not polling any of those states again. We're focusing on the remaining states--
O'Reilly: That's interesting. Let me stop you there. So you're convinced - your polling ageny is convinced - that Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia are going to go for Romney?
Paleologos: That's right, and here's why. Before the debate the Suffolk Poll had Obama winning 46-43 in the head to head number - a poor place to be for a couple of reasons. Number 1, his ballot test, his head to head number, was under 47 before the debate. And it's very difficult when you have the known quantity, the incumbent, to claw your way up to 50. So that was a very very poor place for him to be. And so we're looking at this polling data not only in Florida, but in Virginia and in North Carolina, and it's overwhelming.
more at link
Baitball Blogger
(46,703 posts)Or are they counting on the flip voting software in Palm Beach?
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)psyching people out...
=== from KOS
Because it is not possible that whatever movement we're seeing towards Romney right now is an ephemeral bounce? Because yours is the only poll in existence, and no others showed Obama exceeding the 46% mark in any of these states? Because two nights ago PPP didn't show Obama leading with 50% post-debate? Because, oh I don't know, even if you're right and a huge shitbomb just exploded in those three states, other mitigating factors can't impact the race in the next four weeks?
Nope. Those three are done. No more polling.
OK. So even if there were a somewhat justifiable rationale for pulling all polling from these states, is there no hint of journalistic integrity in you at all? Do you have no sense that by making a pronouncement like that, you are actually creating a media narrative that impacts the state of the race? <----- [stupid rhetorical questions]
Is there any reason at all that anyone can think of, any rational and understandable scenario, where a pollster 4 weeks before an election would declare 3 states that have been very much in play for the entire year, and for most of this time trending in the President's favor, would blithely write them off with absolutely no justification other than appealing to numbers from previous polls? Now granted, as I said I have no background in statistics. But is past performance any reliable indicator of future performance? Pretty sure I heard somewhere that past performance has zero bearing on future outcomes.
Cha
(297,196 posts)voters into the FEAR Zone/Big Freak Out Distraction Zone..and, by dawg it's Working so well..you can smell it on some of these threads.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)I'm half ready to write a rant because this is all a big psyche out and the Republicans WIN at that game!
aaarg
After Thursday things should calm down but the pundits have to stop saying the momentum is with Romney, the democratic pundits!
Cha
(297,196 posts)flamingdem
(39,313 posts)She has so much energy, and no signs of pessimism there
Indpndnt
(2,391 posts)Well, isn't that special.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)maybe maybe not
Indpndnt
(2,391 posts)Nobody would do that to their own image without some big $$$$$$.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)MiniMe
(21,714 posts)get recognition and "credibility" for his poll. Bet he watches Fox Noise.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Unless there's some bullshit we don't know going on in those states how the hell your going to stop polling a month out before election thats what they did against Dewey vs. Truman
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)He definitely has a candidate in this fight. He should say so.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)President Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney 46 percent to Romney's 43 percent in a new poll of Florida from Suffolk University. From their analysis:
Romney continues to struggle with his likability. His 45 percent favorable rating is 3 points higher than in a survey the Suffolk University Political Research Center conducted in May; yet his unfavorable rating is also up 2 points, to 47 percent today.
Obama has been consistently more popular, with a 51 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable rating.
<...>
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-leads-by-3-points-in-florida
Baitball Blogger
(46,703 posts)B2G
(9,766 posts)Before the debate. In political terms, that's a lifetime ago. Just sayin...
grantcart
(53,061 posts)How is it a reason to call it unwinnable for either candidate,
Unless,
Just saying . . .
OldDem2012
(3,526 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...have been lying their asses off about the polls and who is winning--since this campaign's inception.
When they were behind--they were spouting all kinds of conspiracy theories and they even had Dick Morris explain to everyone why Romney was really winning.
Looks, it's no big deal. It's just more spin and lies from the Republicans.
I was flipping through the channels last night and I happened to see Fox News had an electoral map. I laughed so hard. Most of it was red! It was utterly ridiculous!
This is Karl Rove, people--trying to increase the rabid factor with the base. They're lying. And spinning.
This is nothing new. Nothing to get excited about. They lie when they're losing. They lie when they're gaining a bit. And next week--after Biden and Obama have great debates---they'll lie some more.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)reformist2
(9,841 posts)MattBaggins
(7,904 posts)What an appropriate name.