The Pandemic Is Heading Toward a Strange In-Between Time

[Initech]

Is the United States past the worst of the pandemic? Cases and hospitalizations have fallen in most states in the past few days, and vaccination news has brightened. Johnson & Johnson published trial data showing that its one-dose vaccine is safe and effective, and the Biden administration has bought 200 million additional vaccine doses from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, which already have approved vaccines. By the start of the next school year, every American adult who wants a vaccine should be able to get one. The data scientist Youyang Gu, whose pandemic models have been justly celebrated for their performance, projects that the U.S. will reach herd immunity in late July.

The promise of summer vaccinations means that Americans can confidently plan for the end of the pandemic. The crisis is softening now, and America could crush it by autumn. What happens in between? The pandemic’s medium-term future remains the biggest outstanding question: March to May is the mystery.

The outlook is not all rosy. A consensus is developing that this window may be large enough to allow for another surge in cases, Kristian Andersen, an immunology professor at the private medical institute Scripps Research, told me. In fact, he expects such a surge, he said: The increased transmissibility of the U.K. variant makes any other outcome “unrealistic.”

The U.K. variant, which scientists call B.1.1.7, is “of grave concern,” he said: In every country it’s dominated, this variant has increased the disease’s reproduction number—R, a measure of how easily a disease spreads—by 50 percent. If R is higher than 1, then a surge is building. Right now, California has an R of 0.77, according to the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. Were B.1.1.7 to become the dominant strain in California right now, Andersen said, the state would head back into a surge.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/will-there-be-another-surge-spring-mystery/617900/

Great piece in the Atlantic. There's a lot to be hopeful about what has happened, but there's also a lot to be frightful about what's coming. We're not out of the woods yet, but vaccination levels are rising and hospitalizations are dropping. Anything can happen in the next two months though.

[dweller]

1. But 1st

SUPERBOWL SUPERSPREADER !

✌🏻

[Initech]

2. I don't know anyone who's having a party this year.

I'm sure there's idiots who will though.

[FakeNoose]

4. I hope the bars are closed in your state

I'm in Pennsylvania and most bars are having difficulties staying open right now. Restaurants can serve food but only for outside consumption. Who wants to eat outside when it's 20 degrees? The only profitable operation is in carry-out orders, but that makes it tough for alcohol sales.

Super Bowl parties like we've all seen in previous years - I don't think they're going to happen. Maybe a bar stays "closed" but has a private party for the SB, they might be able to get away with that. It's still risky though, establishments are losing their liquor licenses if they don't follow the Covid rules.

I'm like the other senior citizens, I don't need to take any chances. I'm OK with staying home and watching it on TV. I'll be 70 in March and I've seen a lot of Super Bowls over the years. Anyway the Steelers aren't playing, so who gives a rat's azz?

[dweller]

5. I think they are closed

but I haven’t gone anywhere since Oct, so doesn’t affect me ...

Not watching anyway either

✌🏻

[marlakay]

6. All the restaurants have these indoor outdoor

Tents which to me don't seem safe but i bet they are desperate. I have no idea how they will make it.

[progree]

13. Bars and restaurants are open in Minnesota for indoor dining since Jan 11

Even though we were in the top 5 states in highest daily new cases per capita for weeks in November, including some time in #1 place. Sigh.

Last I looked, though we were among the lowest few states. Thanks to shutdowns from November 13 - January 11.

There are some restrictions: 50% max capacity and must close by 10 pm.

[chowder66]

7. This is my concern as well.

Then comes St. Patricks Day, Memorial Day and Independence Day. St. Patricks will probably be the least celebrated but Memorial Day is a big weekender for most and the weather will most likely be pretty nice.

[SheltieLover]

3. Idiot TN Gov Lee just reopened school sports

& is trying to force in-person schooling.

[Initech]

10. I asked my brother who is a public health expert about this.

He said that the openings are happening way too fast for comfort, but he thinks that the next two - three months will definitely be better than what we've seen in the last year. So I will trust his advice on this subject, especially since he's treated COVID patients.

[SheltieLover]

11. Ty!!!

Worried about mutant strains here.

[Initech]

12. He thinks the vaccines will work against the UK and SA strains.

But if not they can be very easily adapted to it. He also thinks we'll have to get booster shots every year in order to be really effective against this virus.

[SheltieLover]

14. Ty for sharing!

Fingers crossed!

At least we are in situation where President is not trying to murder us all!

[nitpicker]

8. In my opinion, some counties and states are already halfway to herd immunity, BUT...

For example, ND and SD already have had over 12% of their residents test positive.

One county in IA (Buena Vista) is over 20% recording positive, and I don't think it was all from mass testing at meat processing plants.

Many counties (including my father's home county) are at 10% or more.

As a result, if there are two unreported positives for every reported one, that could mean 30-60% of Tiny County's residents have had CV, and officials know where to target vaccines to cover the most vulnerable.

BUT some other counties and states have had anywhere from 2% to 5% of their residents report positive for CV. What if one or more of the new variants gets loose there??

[Mr.Bill]

9. Some places in California are prohibiting TV sets

being on in outdoor dining/bars to discourage Superbowl parties. Not sure if that is a good idea. Outdoor parties have to be safer than indoor house parties.

[roamer65]

15. There will be a third wave in October and November.

Children won’t be vaccinated. The vaccines are not approved for children.