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My Pet Orangutan

(9,179 posts)
Fri Feb 5, 2021, 10:39 AM Feb 2021

Larry Summers: The economy needed 'a much larger fiscal stimulus in early 2009'.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. The time the Dem Congress came locked and loaded.

The Biden stimulus is admirably ambitious. But it brings some big risks, too.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/04/larry-summers-biden-covid-stimulus/

President Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid-19 relief plan, added to the stimulus measure Congress passed in December with the incoming administration’s strong support, would represent the boldest act of macroeconomic stabilization policy in U.S. history. Its ambition, its rejection of austerity orthodoxy and its commitment to reducing economic inequality are all admirable. It is imperative that safety-net measures for those suffering and investments in vaccination and testing be undertaken rapidly after the indefensible delays of the last months of the Trump administration.

...

I agree with the general consensus of progressive economists that it would have been much better if the Obama administration had been able to legislate a much larger fiscal stimulus in early 2009, in response to the Great Recession. Yet a comparison of the 2009 stimulus and what is now being proposed is instructive. In 2009, the gap between actual and estimated potential output was about $80 billion a month and increasing. The 2009 stimulus measures provided an incremental $30 billion to $40 billion a month during 2009 — an amount equal to about half the output shortfall.

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Larry Summers: The economy needed 'a much larger fiscal stimulus in early 2009'. (Original Post) My Pet Orangutan Feb 2021 OP
You lost me at Larry Summers nt liskddksil Feb 2021 #1
+1 Celerity Feb 2021 #2
He is what he is, My Pet Orangutan Feb 2021 #4
and who disastrously helped ramrod through the horrific repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999, and Celerity Feb 2021 #8
No one should listen to Larry Summers. And the White House isn't. n/t servermsh Feb 2021 #3
The 2009 stimulus was too small. My Pet Orangutan Feb 2021 #5
I'll go with Janet Yellen. onecaliberal Feb 2021 #6
Any day. My Pet Orangutan Feb 2021 #7
In this instance, he's right. bearsfootball516 Feb 2021 #9
All the 'expert opinion' was pushing for something less than $1 trillion. My Pet Orangutan Feb 2021 #10

My Pet Orangutan

(9,179 posts)
4. He is what he is,
Fri Feb 5, 2021, 10:52 AM
Feb 2021

a man who gave the wrong advice to President Obama in 2009. A $2 trillion stimulus, passed by budget reconciliation was a better way forwards, but everything is clear enough in hindsight

Celerity

(43,107 posts)
8. and who disastrously helped ramrod through the horrific repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999, and
Fri Feb 5, 2021, 11:12 AM
Feb 2021

the even more disastrous Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 (which re-legalised most all forms of the long-banned financial weapons of mass destruction known as derivatives). Those 2 actions were 2 of the most fundamental drivers to the global financial crash of 2007-2009.

Great PBS documentary on how Summers, Rubin, Greenspan etc helped kneecap Brooksley Born (the women who warned of it all in the late 1990's from her position as the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ).

FRONTLINE

The Warning


https://www.pbs.org/video/frontline-the-warning/ (Video at this link)


on YouTube as well (lower quality)



"We didn't truly know the dangers of the market, because it was a dark market," says Brooksley Born, the head of an obscure federal regulatory agency -- the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC] -- who not only warned of the potential for economic meltdown in the late 1990s, but also tried to convince the country's key economic powerbrokers to take actions that could have helped avert the crisis. "They were totally opposed to it," Born says. "That puzzled me. What was it that was in this market that had to be hidden?" In The Warning, veteran FRONTLINE producer Michael Kirk unearths the hidden history of the nation's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. At the center of it all he finds Brooksley Born, who speaks for the first time on television about her failed campaign to regulate the secretive, multitrillion-dollar derivatives market whose crash helped trigger the financial collapse in the fall of 2008.

"I didn't know Brooksley Born," says former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, a member of President Clinton's powerful Working Group on Financial Markets. "I was told that she was irascible, difficult, stubborn, unreasonable." Levitt explains how the other principals of the Working Group -- former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin -- convinced him that Born's attempt to regulate the risky derivatives market could lead to financial turmoil, a conclusion he now believes was "clearly a mistake." Born's battle behind closed doors was epic, Kirk finds. The members of the President's Working Group vehemently opposed regulation -- especially when proposed by a Washington outsider like Born.

"I walk into Brooksley's office one day; the blood has drained from her face," says Michael Greenberger, a former top official at the CFTC who worked closely with Born. "She's hanging up the telephone; she says to me: 'That was [former Assistant Treasury Secretary] Larry Summers. He says, "You're going to cause the worst financial crisis since the end of World War II."... [He says he has] 13 bankers in his office who informed him of this. Stop, right away. No more.'"

Greenspan, Rubin and Summers ultimately prevailed on Congress to stop Born and limit future regulation of derivatives. "Born faced a formidable struggle pushing for regulation at a time when the stock market was booming," Kirk says. "Alan Greenspan was the maestro, and both parties in Washington were united in a belief that the markets would take care of themselves." Now, with many of the same men who shut down Born in key positions in the Obama administration, The Warning reveals the complicated politics that led to this crisis and what it may say about current attempts to prevent the next one. "It'll happen again if we don't take the appropriate steps," Born warns. "There will be significant financial downturns and disasters attributed to this regulatory gap over and over until we learn from experience."




My Pet Orangutan

(9,179 posts)
5. The 2009 stimulus was too small.
Fri Feb 5, 2021, 10:53 AM
Feb 2021

Forget Summers, there is a broad consensus on this.

New spending in the Recovery and Reinvestment Act was only $550b.

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