Pundits are saying the Senate will vote to acQuit - I'm not so sure.....

[kpete]

from Heather Cox Richardson:

Pundits are saying that the Senate will vote to acquit former president Donald Trump at the end of his second impeachment trial, set to start on Tuesday.

I’m not so sure.
............

......Trump’s support is falling. An ABC News/Ipsos poll released today shows that 56% of Americans believe that Trump should be convicted and barred from ever holding office again. By a 17-point margin, Americans say that the Republican Party has more radical extremists than the Democrats.

There is another problem: it is likely that the more we learn about what happened on January 6, the worse the participants are going to look. And, if indeed the Department of Justice decides to use RICO, the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, against those who participated in the insurrection, it might well sweep in Republican lawmakers or operatives who spoke at, raised money for, or planned the January 6 rally. In that case, a vote to acquit the president would tie a senator who is not associated with the rally to those that are.

Republican senators have tried to stay quiet about the upcoming trial. When forced to comment, some leading business Republicans have pushed back against the Trump wing. McConnell has called the right-wing fringe a cancer that must be cut out, and today Cheney—who won Gaetz’s challenge to remove her from leadership by a 2-1 vote-- went for Trump himself, saying he “does not have a role as a leader of our party going forward.” On “Fox News Sunday,” Cheney told host Chris Wallace that Trump lied when he said the election had been rigged. She warned that Republicans had to face reality or face defeat in the future.

In contrast, Democrats are operating from a position of strength. It seems likely they will use the impeachment trial to explain to the American people what happened on January 6. Using videos and the words of those who were in the Capitol when the mob stormed in, they will paint a picture of an attempted coup, incited by a former President of the United States.

the rest:
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/february-7-2021?r=g4f63&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=copy

[soothsayer]

1. Love her and yes, have been saying the same thing

It’s gonna be pretty staggering stuff when they lay it out there in broad daylight.

[samnsara]

2. im hoping a bunch stay home...

[mucifer]

3. I think it depends on how much of the public watch it and how the press covers it.

[no_hypocrisy]

4. Republicans are in a bind:

Vote to convict and face a primary challenger, or vote to acquit and possibly lose to a Democrat.

[mopinko]

5. i think any thug who wants a future

will watch the trial and vote to convict. their one unerring skill is to tell which way the wind is blowing.

[RoadRising]

6. If reports of new evidence of Trump's knowledge head of time

are true and substantial, chances just got much better for conviction.

[Cosmocat]

7. Sure, THIS time they will stand up to him!

Unlike the the prior 10,000 times.

You will be able to count on one hand, at best, the number who vote to impeach him because ...

1) LIBERALS!!! They never give an inch, the just don't.

2) They live in fear of the monster they have created - their lunatic base. They will do what is in their best interest as a politician, and not risk this being a reason they get beat in a primary.

3) AND, they know the endless $$$ and adulation that comes from being in the conservative hate bubble - their fallback is always turning a buck feeding the hate to the beast. Why jeopardize your post elected career gravy train of paid gigs and being a star at all the hate events that go on.

4) Oh, one last point. Most of these people actually believe in him and/or all of the bullshit the republican party spews - that they are the true patriots and christians, and they are in an epic battle against the evil liberals, and anything they say or do is righteous in that battle, and they are all just victims, including the POS.

[Brown Feather]

8. 17 Republican Senators

Need to vote to convict and I don't think their are that many that hold seats in swing districts.

This means the ones who have solid red districts would more than likely get tossed in a primary challenge and the Republicans would still retain the seat after the election. I don't look for any more than 6 or 7 Republicans at most to vote to convict Trump.

[moose65]

10. Sadly I think you're right

Even the ones who are retiring, who need not fear the next election (like my Senator, Burr) will probably vote to acquit him, even though deep down they KNOW he is guilty. I will never understand Trump's hold on them, unless he really is blackmailing them.

We can probably count on Mitt, who voted to convict the first time. Who else? Senators who were just re-elected in November won't have to face voters again for almost 6 years. By then, this will be ancient history. Can you see any of them voting to convict, though?

Tillis?? My other so-called "Senator"? I doubt it.

Collins? She might, since I'm sure a majority of Maine voters would support that.

McConnell?? He might.

Graham? Not a chance.

Toomey (retiring)? Maybe

Murkowski? I doubt it. She's up again in 2022.

Ernst?? Please. Not a chance.

It's probably a losing battle. The good thing is that this time they won't be able to hide the evidence and silence the witnesses.

[FakeNoose]

17. Toomey R-PA may surprise us

He seems to be making noises now like he's growing a conscience.

He's already a lame-duck in that he's not running for re-election in 2022. He took a lot of heat in Pennsylvania when he rubber stamped Chump's tax breaks for the rich scheme, and GQP's other initiatives. Also he gave no support to Chump's ridiculous claims that the election was rigged. I'm thinking Toomey may vote to convict, because he's all out of fucks to give.

[BumRushDaShow]

19. Teabagger Toomey

doesn't want to kill his public office chances later down the line. Although he basically voted "to proceed", joining 4 other GOPers to vote with Democrats to kill SPAWN OF RON PAUL's motion, the odds of him convicting are slim. If he were retiring/resigning this year, then he might be that bold. But he still has another almost 2 years to remain in office (until early January 2023, after the 2022 election) and the loons who have been cultivated in this state will come after him full force during that time.

[SoonerPride]

9. Will it be a secret ballot?

If the vote is secret he will be convicted.

If the vote is public they will acquit.

It really is that simple.

[Wounded Bear]

12. I don't believe it is a secret ballot...nt

[Duppers]

20. I think you're right.

According to this Post article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/26/why-secret-impeachment-vote-isnt-going-happen/?outputType=amp


Wish it weren't true.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. Any RICO evidence from the DOJ won't likely be heard until the senate trial is over and forgotten.

[Blue_Adept]

14. This is the party that on 90/10 polling issues side with the 10

Don't get hopes up in the slightest.

[N_E_1 for Tennis]

15. I'm likening to a wood pile...

infested with rats. Set fire to the pile and get the rats as they run to save themselves.

[Baclava]

16. Convict! Lock him up! Start building the gallows for the Nuremberg court trial next!

[uponit7771]

18. Great analysis and correct conclusion ... IF ... IF...you could add in dems adequate messaging into

... the equation.

You can't, dems don't have adequate messaging to make kGOP pay for voting for terror.

I'm objective in my statement and hope that this claim isn't against TOS

[Wawannabe]

21. They were PRESENT

During the Capitol breach!

They already know what happened and the trial is not going to change their minds. They will acquit because they are COWARDS!