Never thought I'd say this, but From Bill Kristol's keyboard to God's ears:

[StarfishSaver]

Link to tweet

[TruckFump]

1. Cornyn?

I doubt it.

[grantcart]

12. Cornyn personally hates Trump. Wouldn't stick his neck out but would join a group

It's not just about Trump but also taking Cruz and Hawley down a notch.

My guess 55-45

[TwilightZone]

20. Doesn't matter if he hates Trump

If he wants to keep his job, he presumably believes that he has to acquit. And he wants to keep his job more than he hates Trump.

Same story for most of the 44. It's more about their jobs than about Trump. Always was.

[KatyMan]

36. He was just reelected

and 6 years is an eternity in politics, so I don't think his reelection factors in--what does factor in is that he's nothing but a craven piece of shit, a stain on humanity and a vile creature so of course he'll vote to acquit.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

2. I would move Moscow Mitch to the "likely" column; trump cost him his Maj.Ldr. seat.

[Irish_Dem]

3. McConnell has lost a lot, his position, his caucus, his power, his party in tatters.

And he loathes Trump.

He should vote guilty and get rid of Trump forever.

[Dorian Gray]

10. He should vote guilty

and whip the rest of the senators to do so, too.

That he isn't doing that.... shows he has no actual power.

[Irish_Dem]

13. He lost his caucus when he told Cruz and Hawley not to protest the EC certification.

They ignored him and did it anyway.

And he is not whipping the others as you say.

We shall see what he does.

[Dorian Gray]

15. I suspect nothing

vote with the majority of the Rs.

It's like a really boring game of Survivor. Just float with the majority on your team and hope you're not the one voted out next.

[Irish_Dem]

16. That is my guess as well.

He will do what is expedient and create no waves.

McConnell is re-grouping and planning his next diabolical moves.

[moonscape]

23. Yeah, he's in Boehner decline. n/t

[Irish_Dem]

24. I wonder if he knows it yet, or if he is still scheming and plotting?

[moonscape]

25. My guess is both. He's calculating if he goes

down like Boehner did or no. My guess is the former. He can hang on to leadership in 2022 if he plays with the far right but likely not if he rakes divergent stand. So my money is on the former unless he sniffs the tide turning among more to convict. He won’t risk a certain 2022 leadership challenge if he strays.

[Irish_Dem]

26. If he goes far right, he risks the ire of the Liz Cheney coalition, and the party fractures more.

He is walking a fine line. And a party he cannot control.

I agree with you, I think for now he aligns with the Trump folks.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

28. My guess is that McConnell has seen the reports of over 100K leaving the Republican party.

Cuddling up with the most extreme of the Radical Republican Reich is not the way to win elections. January 6 caused trumpism to fall out of favor with a lot of voters.

[Irish_Dem]

29. If McConnell were smart he would vote guilty. Encourage his caucus to do the same.

Rid the party of Trump.

Then start over rebuilding their party.

[TruckFump]

6. I can see Mitch voting to convict.

IMO, loss of being Majority Leader and the damage to the reputation of the Repuke party.

[Norbert]

14. If Mitch votes to convict how likely is Cornyn and Barraso to do the same

All three pal around together and all lost a little prestige last month.

[czarjak]

4. FWIW, want to bet? (Would love to be wrong though)

[blueinredohio]

5. Portman will vote however he's told to vote.

[DLCWIdem]

7. I'm hoping this last day will get some thinking

If Trump runs again then he would have to go through the primary process and he could do the same thing he did at the capital to them and their party.

[Goodheart]

8. It will be 56-44.

Bill Cassidy is taking a beating here in Louisiana and will vote to acquit.

[leftofthestorm]

9. Pass that pipe....nt

[WarGamer]

11. He's full of crap.

It's going to be MAYBE Sasse, Murkowski, Romney and Collins.

the rest is masturbatory fantasy.

By the way, Bill...

YOU LOVED the Tea Party and the looney Right when they took the House in 2010.

You only became hostile to them when YOU lost CONTROL of them.

Trump is the PRODUCT of 30 years of Bill Kristol, Steve Schmidt, Jeff Flake, John Kasich and their ilk...

So there ya go, Bill. You shit your pants now sleep in it.

I HATE these disingenuous Repubs who gave birth to Trumpism and now pretend to oppose it.

[TwilightZone]

17. That's way more than a teaspoon of wishful thinking.

I would be shocked if it's any better than 56-44.

[JI7]

18. How about Thune ?

[TwilightZone]

21. No chance.

He's done in SD if he votes to convict. Like the rest, he wants to keep his job more than he wants to do the right thing.

That's really the primary issue in all of this and the biggest problem. It's not about Trump - it's about their jobs.

[Turin_C3PO]

30. I think you're right.

I see many on our side wondering whether these Republicans are corrupt or being blackmailed, etc. but I think 90% of the time it comes down to them knowing they'll be primaried from the far right and get voted out of office. It's all about job security. Still shameful but it's a simple reason.

[TwilightZone]

31. Agreed.

We tend to put too much thought and analysis into this. In the end, it's self-preservation. Everything else is cover.

[StarfishSaver]

35. Which I don't understand, especially among Senators

I can see how House Members who never amounted to much before they went into politics might be desperate to hang on to their jobs. But most people who have been a senator for one or two terms pretty much can write their own ticket after they're out of office. I just don't understand why some of these senators hang on to their jobs so desperately and fear possibly being voted out of office. I would think that a senator who shows courage and independence and then, loses their seat as a result, could parlay that into a very lucrative post-political career. Boards, law firms, teaching, etc. The idea that these people are desperately grasping to hang on to their positions says a lot about the kind of people they are.

[localroger]

19. If it goes against Trump, it won't be in the traditional way

No standard whipping of votes. It will be quiet one-on-one calls and whispering in the darkness, and when the vote comes it will be like Romney's surprise saving of the ACA.

Cassidy was a surprise -- he's my senator, not that I'd ever vote for him but this is Louisiana, and he had no obvious positive political reason to vote to go to trial. Everyone now also sees how's he been treated over that. A line has been drawn in the sand, and it's not between Republicans and Democrats. Every Republican Senator will have to decide which side of line to fall on when the roll call vote comes, knowing that there is no safe haven, and they are going to piss off a lot of people and be remembered for a long time for what they do. And this is after the devastating case laid out by the impeachment team, and the ineptitude of Trump's defense.

It could really go either way. It's not a bet I'd take for any reasonable odds. And even if there is no conviction, that record of who voted how will haunt all the nays to the end of their careers, in ways we probably aren't even imagining yet.

[StarfishSaver]

22. Agree 100%

[crickets]

27. +1

[gollygee]

32. I don't have a ton of hope, but

the level of performative Trump worship coming from a few of them makes me think they are aware there are others who are strongly considering voting to convict.

[bullwinkle428]

33. If he gets convicted, I'll ride my bike in a G. Gordon Liddy-style

stars & stripes thong, down my town's main street.

BTW, the forecasted high temperature in my area for Sunday is -3°F.

[LAS14]

34. These are strange times. All sorts of "bad guys" are becoming quotable. nt