The 17 Rethugs most likely to convict, and then 5 wild cards

[Celerity]

I am NOT saying at all that these 17 will vote to convict, simple that all have at least given some hope, no matter how slight, they might.

I have spent hours over the last week or so looking at statements, articles, prognostications

IF the SCOTUS said this WAS Constitutional (the post POTUS trial) then I think we would have the 17 and more, as SO many of the 50 Rethugs are hiding behind the bullshit argument (false) that it's unconstitutional.

edited to add

these 17 are my picks REGARDLESS of the constitutional issue excuse, as some posters seem to be focusing in on that alone, and I was not clear enough, apparently

Alabama - Richard Shelby
Alaska - Lisa Murkowski
Alaska - Dan Sullivan
Idaho - Mike Crapo
Idaho - Jim Risch
Indiana - Todd Young
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell
Louisiana - Bill Cassidy
Maine - Susan Collins
Nebraska - Deb Fischer
Nebraska - Ben Sasse
North Carolina - Richard Burr
North Carolina - Thom Tillis
Ohio - Rob Portman
Pennsylvania - Pat Toomey
South Dakota - John Thune
Utah - Mitt Romney

Wild Cards

Arkansas - Tom Cotton (IF he is running for POTUS in 2024, he might see this as a way to put the knife in Trump, he is that ruthless)
Kansas - Jerry Moran (has been in the group, many of those in the 17 above, who have been hanging around McConnell for days now. Many pundits think Mitch has something up his sleeve)
Louisiana - John Kennedy (crazy unpredictable, and he KNOWS better, he is one of the most intelligent Senators despite his fake hick, slack-jaw yokel act)
Texas - John Cornyn (just a hunch, and he HATES Cruz personally)
West Virginia - Shelley Moore Capito (what bigger wild card than the Rethug from Trump-insane West Virginia, she has 6 years to go before re-election too)

[mia]

1. Thanks for your research and list of possibilities.

I was wondering about the same thing.

[Celerity]

2. yw

[Turin_C3PO]

3. Thanks for the breakdown!

If I had to guess the odds of conviction, I’d say there’s probably a 20% chance.

[Celerity]

4. I agree, I would say 20 to 25% max atm, with McTreason McTurtle being the only real force to

make it happen.

[yellowcanine]

5. But Susan Collins probably thinks NOW he has "learned his lesson."

So I would not count on her.

[North Shore Chicago]

6. This is a thoughtful post, thank you!

This scenario is glass half full, even if this so-called trial should be a no-brainer. Imagine if one of us were chosen for jury duty and during the trial, we put our feet up, read books etc..... we would be held in contempt!

Cocky little bastids.

[bullwinkle428]

7. If it wasn't the "Constitutionality" excuse, they would find some other

kind of excuse to let him off. Like the color of the tie he was wearing that day, or some other such nonsense.

[TwilightZone]

8. Constitutionality is just an excuse.

If the SC declared it constitutional, they'd just use another excuse.

We should really stop taking their arguments at face value. They're not telling the truth any more than Trump does.

[colsohlibgal]

9. So Hope It Happens

It is a long shot but you never know. What I most care about is banning Chitolini from running again, it’s a shame he has to be convicted first.