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Gothmog

(145,173 posts)
Fri Feb 12, 2021, 07:55 PM Feb 2021

This is how Biden eked out his 2020 Victory

The concept that we can flip seats and win by running as an extreme liberal candidate does not work in the real world. Joe Biden won by running as a moderate candidate and getting more independent voters and non voters compared to Hillary's 2016 results. Lets look at how Joe won https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/02/12/this-is-how-biden-eked-out-his-2020-victory/

Why, then, did Joe Biden win and Hillary Clinton lose? Our exploration of YouGov/CBS polling provides an answer to that question. We find that in the decisive states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), Biden exceeded his national performance among pure independents (the small fraction of voters that eschew all partisan leanings) and substantially bested Clinton’s 2016 showing among that group. He also managed to convert more former Trump voters than Trump did ex-Clinton voters. Ultimately, however, Biden’s improvement on Clinton’s effort was small, reflecting the extraordinary difficulty of winning a contemporary presidential election by a dominant margin in the Electoral College. Moreover, Biden’s win was in large part a repudiation of Trump, which did not carry over to House and Senate races, where Democrats did not meet expectations......

However, it was in the decisive states that Biden’s true advantage over Clinton became apparent. He did better among Republicans and slightly worse among Democrats than he did nationally; among independents, though, he managed to outperform his national vote share by nearly 3 percent. While that difference may appear small, remember that nearly 24 million votes were cast in the five states Biden flipped, and that his combined margin was only 279,000 (a 3 percent difference translates to 720,000 votes). Biden’s performance among Democrats — about 96 percent nationally and in the flipped states — also substantially improved on Clinton, who received slightly less than 90 percent of Democratic votes. The updated national exit poll supports our analysis — Biden benefited more from partisan loyalty than Trump, won the independents, and captured a higher percentage of Republicans than Trump did Democrats.

Biden’s coalition in the battleground states also included significant numbers of 2016 nonvoters and Trump voters. In the five states he flipped, as well as Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio, Biden received about 20 percent of his votes from 2016 nonvoters and about 6 percent from 2016 Trump voters. By contrast, Trump received only 13 percent of his vote from the former group and about 3 percent from 2016 Clinton voters. Indeed, our analysis of the battleground state polls shows that Biden won vote-switchers by a decisive 2-to-1 margin. These Trump-to-Biden voters were overwhelmingly concerned about covid-19, with about 82 percent rating it as a “major factor” in their presidential pick. By contrast, Clinton-to-Trump voters were considerably more worried about the economy (about 85 percent rated it a major factor).
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This is how Biden eked out his 2020 Victory (Original Post) Gothmog Feb 2021 OP
It took all of us who voted together to provide the majority of 7 million votes that has placed abqtommy Feb 2021 #1
absolutely... WarGamer Feb 2021 #2
This is the reality that we're going to be facing for a bit kurtcagle Feb 2021 #3
Off to the Greatest Page Hekate Feb 2021 #4

abqtommy

(14,118 posts)
1. It took all of us who voted together to provide the majority of 7 million votes that has placed
Fri Feb 12, 2021, 08:47 PM
Feb 2021

Joe in the White House. This is not an "eke" though it is an EEK for tRUMP and the reTHUGS.
Slice and dice it any way you want. We're proud, we're loud and we're here to stay!

WarGamer

(12,440 posts)
2. absolutely...
Fri Feb 12, 2021, 08:58 PM
Feb 2021

But now he needs to pay the people back by protecting the environment AND taxing the wealthy PROPERLY.

I agree with the UK Wealth Tax Commission... start with a 5% one-time tax on ALL net worth over $500K.

And then possibly another 1% annually.

kurtcagle

(1,602 posts)
3. This is the reality that we're going to be facing for a bit
Fri Feb 12, 2021, 09:13 PM
Feb 2021

I think this is the last hurrah of the Republicans for a while, but playing to the middle is going to be a reality for a while. We need to start focusing more at the state legislative level and combat the effects of gerrymandering, which has given the conservatives about a 3-4% advantage in most federal elections.

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