Inside the Texas power crisis.

[WarGamer]

Logical question, what's happening?

1) Wind power production down. Turbines frozen solid.

2) Natural Gas shortage

3) Solar production drastically down.

4) Refineries offline, gas prices soon to rise.



Bill Gates nuclear reactors for the 21st Century are sounding better every day.

His new book is out now.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. This:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/107851486

The wind turbines aren't frozen; the problem is Texas' insane system of power distribution.

[WarGamer]

2. according to AP, Forbes and others...

Natural gas is frozen in the pipes and turbines are frozen.

Texas system may be to blame, also...

but shit is still physically frozen.

It's not the cold, Ars Technica correctly reported that Wind power functions in the Antarctic...

But it's the freezing ICE that's bound up the turbines. Unless you're saying the Grid operators are lying?

[NutmegYankee]

4. Many turbines are still operating.

And wind power was over performing yesterday.

[WarGamer]

10. I didn't say all were frozen

The ones near the coast are overperforming because of higher winds.

Doesn't change my statement.

Frozen turbines are PART of the problem.

[NutmegYankee]

14. A very minor part.

The fossil fuel plants going offline is the main issue.

[WarGamer]

16. I listed several participating factors.

[NutmegYankee]

19. You still fail to understand that wind is actually on target

The turbine rarely produce full power. The grid operator knows that and the coast is making up the expected wind portion for the grid. The real issue is the other major providers aren't making up their expected portion.

[WarGamer]

20. No.

Coastal turbines running above average, does not compensate for total loss if the West Texas turbines were spinning today.

This is really silly to argue... trying to make it sound like there's no problem with wind turbines in Texas today.

[NutmegYankee]

22. In other words you don't get it. nt

[WarGamer]

25. I've been an engineer for 30+ years.

You're trying to say the Texas freeze hasn't affected Wind Turbine output because Coastal turbines are making more power than usual.

I'm saying part of the problem in Texas TODAY is that some turbines are frozen, because if they WERE NOT frozen... output would be higher and helping the State grid.

Stop arguing 1+1=3

[NutmegYankee]

27. You aren't the only engineer here. nt

[WarGamer]

28. good to hear that... sometimes I tire of being the only humorless nitpick in the room.

Although my more recent entrance into the BioPharma has made me somewhat more socially palatable.

[NutmegYankee]

29. Going back to the original discussion

The grid operator expects about 3 GW of wind power, and they are getting it. Sure, they'd love to have the other turbines online producing more, but that expected wind portion of the total power for the grid is there. Unfortunately the cold has damaged conventional plants and taken them offline as well. At this point the grid operator wants anything it can get online to go online.

[WarGamer]

30. Agreed. Every turbine that thaws out will increase the grid numbers.

[NutmegYankee]

31. The real problem is Texas didn't buy the "cold weather package".

Turbines can be fitted with heated oil sumps and leading edges. Oops.

[WarGamer]

33. It's the cost benefit analysis I guess...

never though they'd need it.

[Caliman73]

47. No one ever thinks they need it.

PG&E didn't think they needed to perform scheduled maintenance on power lines, then they burned down half of Northern California.

In capitalism the cost benefit analysis is always, what can we get away with so that we can claim the biggest short term profit.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. I'm not saying anybody is lying; just referring to the cited article.

I will add, however, that we have wind turbines in Minnesota, where the winter weather is much worse all the time, and they don't freeze. If some of them are freezing in Texas it's because someone isn't maintaining them properly, not because wind turbines are a bad power source.

[Miguelito Loveless]

7. Gas lines are frozen?

First I've heard. The major problem is that gas supplies are now being depleted as home heating demand (which is of a higher priority than electricity) is being used at higher rates, leaving little gas for generation.

As to who to believe, after Enron, I am highly suspicious of grid operators. Would not put it past them to deliberately idle turbines in order to drive up price, but then have the problem get out of control.

[Clearly fogged in]

42. A different take

Knowing it might be legally wrong to deliberately idle turbines, it would be harder to make a case against them for untimely and mismanaged startup of any already idled turbines. In the end it's the same thing

[Miguelito Loveless]

3. #1 is not correct

There are reports that SOME turbines are frozen, but wind power is currently performing ABOVE expectation.

While some early reports indicated that frozen wind turbines were causing significant shortfalls, 30GW is roughly equal to the entire state's wind capacity if every turbine is producing all the power it's rated for. Since wind in Texas generally tends to produce less during winter, there's no way that the grid operators would have planned for getting 30GW from wind generation; in fact, a chart at ERCOT indicates that wind is producing significantly more than forecast.

So while having Texas' full wind-generating capacity online would help, the problems with meeting demand appear to lie elsewhere. An ERCOT director told Bloomberg that problems were widespread across generating sources, including coal, natural gas, and even nuclear plants.

#3 Solar production is slightly below expected output.

Even so, wind generation has actually exceeded the grid operator’s daily forecast through the weekend. Solar power has been slightly below forecast Monday.

“The performance of wind and solar is way down the list among the smaller factors in the disaster that we’re facing,” Daniel Cohan, associate professor of environmental engineering at Rice University, said in an interview. Blaming renewables for the blackouts “is really a red herring.”

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/frozen-wind-farms-were-just-a-small-piece-of-texas-s-power-woes

To add one comment: The Texas power grid is broken as designed.

[WarGamer]

6. You're dancing on the head of a pin.

Wind power statewide is DOWN because of frozen turbines.

Fortunately, wind energy is UP near the coast but not compensating for the lost power.

Read this, it'll help you

https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2021/02/14/historic-winter-storm-freezes-texas-wind-turbines-hampering-electric-generation/4483230001/

[Miguelito Loveless]

8. It is ABOVE what they expected for this time of year

which did NOT include an ice storm.

[WarGamer]

11. Only in the coastal areas, ffs...

[Miguelito Loveless]

34. Again, from the Bloomberg link

Don’t point too many fingers at Texas wind turbines, because they’re not the main reason broad swaths of the state have been plunged into darkness.

While ice has forced some turbines to shut down just as a brutal cold wave drives record electricity demand, that’s been the least significant factor in the blackouts, according to Dan Woodfin, a senior director for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which operates the state’s power grid.

The main factors: Frozen instruments at natural gas, coal and even nuclear facilities, as well as limited supplies of natural gas, he said. “Natural gas pressure” in particular is one reason power is coming back slower than expected Tuesday, added Woodfin.

Again, we have wind turbines doing fine in far, far, colder places. Also, "some" turbines is a far cry from "half the turbines".

The system is broken as designed. ESPECIALLY, the lack of grid inter-connectivity outside of Texas. The system is designed to maximize profits by keeping online generation capacity just above needs, meaning they cannot handle any exceptional, unexpected, demand spike. I would be VERY curious as to whether the people who own coastal turbines also own turbines in West Texas, since with the spot electricity price at $9.00/kWh (versus the usual 5¢), they would have a HUGE incentive to idle turbines to drive up the price and "maximize shareholder value".

[Miguelito Loveless]

12. Also, it's right there in the headline

Frozen wind turbines hamper Texas power output, state's electric grid operator says

I will have to have the word of someone more reliable than the state's essentially unregulated grid operators.

[waddirum]

9. Nuclear Power

is not the solution. Talk about wrong path.

[WarGamer]

13. I'm not so sure about that.

Bill Gates makes a strong argument for 21st Century tech...

[Turin_C3PO]

15. I'd say nuclear power

is our best solution.

[WarGamer]

17. Gates says "Why have we been using 1950's tech for nuclear power design?"

And he's right, we have better ways.

[jpak]

38. Has Gates built any of these?

He has the $$$$

Yup

[USALiberal]

23. You are wrong! Nt

[greenjar_01]

18. Everyone please understand that all this is a conservative lie

Thank you.

[WarGamer]

21. What is?

[TheRealNorth]

41. Sealion says hi

[WarGamer]

46. the proposed invasion of Britain by Germany in WW2?

Cool.

[LanternWaste]

48. Context is difficult when it doesn't validate our narratives

Good luck!! Sealions eat lots of fish, and boy, they belch!

6-1 odds/ DR1, Def elim.

[WarGamer]

49. IS that a reference to the Luftwaffe decision to strike civilian targets

During the Battle of Britain rather than focus on military targets? Cool.

Thanks for the discussion, bye.

[jpak]

24. I live in Maine, but spent 4 years in TX

We produce 22% of our electricity from wind, and they do not freeze.

Our natural gas pipelines don't freeze either.

Our solar farms produce electricity even when they are snow covered. Snow transmits lots of sunlight and it would take several meters of snow cover to block it completely.

[WarGamer]

26. Tell the AP, etc...

And investigate the grid operators for lying.

[Miguelito Loveless]

35. AP seems to be quoting the grid operators

which is like asking Exxon about an oil spill.

[Clearly fogged in]

43. Or Mobil

[jpak]

32. Nuclear power plants in France have to shut down in the summer

Because the coolant water is too warm.

And they are vulnerable to power line disruptions, just like solar and wind.

Maine produces most of its electricity from renewable sources, and our electricity prices *dropped* as result.

If we built a new 1000 MW nuclear plant, it would cost $12 billion - to supply our 1.3 million population.

Nuclear electricity cost would cripple us.

Yup

[WarGamer]

36. Gates think the new TerraPower reactors will generate 350MW continuous...

cost around $1B

With scaling, price drops

[jpak]

37. Can we bury the spent fuel in TX and make them pay for it?

Maine Yankee (our only nuclear plant) shut down in 1996.

But taxpayers pay the former owners $10 million a year to babysit their spent fuel.

The proposed Yucca Mountain spent fuel depository would cost over 100 billion dollars, and taxpayers would pay most of it.

Nucular not the answer.

Nope

[roamer65]

40. DTE Energy in Michigan has talked off and on about a third unit at Fermi 2 along Lake Erie.

A 1500MW boiling water GE reactor.

Estimated cost: $20 to $30 BILLION dollars.

If they get serious about I’ll be at our MPSC hearings screaming my damn head off.

Fuck that shit.

[Gothmog]

39. Texas GOP and ERCOT-Preparation is for wimps

It is tough living in Texas at times. The GOP has set up ERCOT which is a separate Texas only power grid that is not well planned. The Texas GOP was proud of Texas being independent of the rest of the United States and now we are paying for this arrogance

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[rockfordfile]

44. You're leaving out the pos Republican government in Texas.

It's Texas fault for having pos republican government. Republican government have a terrible track record when it comes to emergency events.

folks in Texas bundle up .