Why the New Hampshire results are bad news for Romney

[Pab Sungenis]

New England candidates almost always win New Hampshire in a walk and Romney couldn't break 50%. Worse, this isn't like 2008 where the states were winner-take-all for the Republicans. Romney will end up with, probably, slightly more than a third of the delegates from New Hampshire. The Iowa totals are really up in the air because of the way they're assigned at party conventions and Paul might have actually won the majority of delegates in Iowa because of his organization.

To put it bluntly, Mitt Romney can't get anywhere near close to half of the delegates from any state. Right now, Romney is pulling 31% in South Carolina and 32% in Florida. It's too early for polls in the later, most populous states like California, New York, and Texas so we can't call those, but Romney desperately needs a majority in each of those three to start chalking up delegates. Especially if Perry survives until the Texas Primary.

Worse, these votes so far are keeping challengers in the race instead of winnowing them out. Ron Paul is not going to drop out now, and unless he tanks completely in South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida he won't get out any time soon. Santorum will probably get a boost from South Carolina as will Gingrich. Huntsman may stay in for a couple more weeks. Every name on the ballot makes it that much harder for Mittens to start winning actual majorities.

This becomes a problem when the Republicans pack their bags for the trip to Mouseland and their Convention because the nomination ISN'T first-past-the-post; a candidate needs a majority of delegates to receive the nomination. What happens if Mitt keeps pulling 30-40% at best in state after state? He's not going to get to the 50%+1 of the delegates he needs, which means the Convention will probably be deadlocked on the first ballot.

And what happens on the second ballot? It's a whole new ballgame. The opposition forces will start cutting deals so the weaker candidates get out and endorse the stronger ones. Suddenly signs like "DRAFT PALIN," "DRAFT CHRISTIE," and "DRAFT DANIELS" might start appearing in which case all hell breaks loose. Mitt will have to fight tooth and nail to hold on to his delegates if a more charismatic candidate throws a hat in the ring because (much like John Adams in the musical "1776&quot he is obnoxious and disliked.

Even if Romney makes it out of a brokered convention there will be no more bounce than your classic dead-cat bounce. He won't be able to use the convention to make his case to the American people and re-introduce himself. His campaign organization will look sloppy for allowing it all to come to that and the Process Stories will rule the day in the media about how fucked-up the Republican machine is at the moment. And if the "not Romney" forces manage to unite behind someone else on the third or fourth ballot he might not even leave the Convention as the nominee.

So, ironically, with two victories under his belt so far, Romney is even further away from the White House than he was before any votes were tallied.

[OmahaBlueDog]

1. I'd hypothesize that Romney would have won a slam dunk in NH in Huntsman's absence

I don't see Huntsman doing anything outside the Northeast or possibly the West Coast.

Also -- re: Iowa: Isn't there still some controversy that Santorum actually won the overall count due to a clerical error?

[NYC Liberal]

6. Re: Iowa. There were (according to what I read) also errors in Santorum's favor.

Romney most likely still wins if everything is corrected, but possibly by only 2-3 votes instead of 8.

[xchrom]

2. Draft Jeb? That would be bitter. Nt

[MADem]

3. He's as good as a local boy and he still couldn't cut it.

While he was MA governor, he spent more time in NH than he did in MA. It was a running joke. He spent summers in his lake mansion in Lake Winnepesaukee, NH and took every opportunity to get out and about up that way.

He has been running to win the NH primary for nearly a decade, frankly. He's "as good as" a NH resident--you'd think the electorate up there would perceive that a NH (for all intents and purposes) governor would be good for the state....but NOOOOOO!

They don't like him all that much, because, to put it simply, he's a big old phony.

A brokered convention wouldn't surprise me at all--it might get very interesting.

[Jackpine Radical]

5. I've been sorta half-predicting a brokered convention, and

I think some dark horse will emerge because all of the currently-running candidates will have chewed each other to pieces in the primaries.

Maybe not Jeb; possibly Christie, possibly even Rubio, but someone who hasn't been run through the Primary-season meat grinder.

[Dan]

10. normally, I would go with Jeb

...but right now, there is nothing left in the nation to steal...

So, I think that they will hold Jeff back until 2016 - when there might be something to steal.

[racaulk]

4. If three or four candidates make it all the way to the convention...

...I can see it all playing out exactly as you described. However, it takes a lot of money to make it all the way to that point, and I'm not sure they all have it. I know Romney seems to have an endless supply of money (both personal and contributed) to bankroll his campaign, and I think Paul does as well. But what about the others? Can they still hold their delegates at the convention if they are forced to suspend their campaigns during the primaries?

[ddeclue]

7. Reading too much into it. Nobody gets 50% in a 6 way field. n/t

[tritsofme]

8. Only the early states are going to award their delegates proportionally.

Florida will be winner-takes-all, as will most states beginning with Super Tuesday in March.

Should Romney win South Carolina and Florida, many of these other candidates are going to struggle to continue waging credible campaigns. I personally think Romney will have the nomination effectively sewn up sooner rather than later.

[DonCoquixote]

9. You nailed it

Especially since I can tell you, the war machine is already tuning up down here in Tampa. And let's not even ponder what will happen if Tea Party candidate Rick Scott decides he wants to crack a whip and be important; he would lose NO cred by insulting Mitt, as his followers are to the far right of Ron Paul.

[coalition_unwilling]

11. The primaries after April 1 are 'winner-take-all' as I understand it. That said, DUer GrantCart

Last edited Wed Jan 11, 2012, 11:48 PM - Edit history (1)

did some preliminary analysis in earlier threads that supports your hypothesis, i.e., that it will be all but impossible for any candidate to secure a majority of delegates on the first ballot.

The question, of course, is whether the also-rans can stay in and quasi-competitive until April 1. If they do, thereby denying Romney any significant delegate advantage, then it's a whole new ball game.

[Pab Sungenis]

12. Not all of them. Some (I don't know which) are proportional, but...

the winning candidate needs 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. 1,099 of those will be selected after Louisiana on March 24th (which is the last of the forced-proportionals).

If Rick Perry lasts until the Texas primary on April 3rd (and I think he's pigheaded enough to do so) he'll deny Romney of 155 of those delegates, reducing the pool to 944. Whether Rick Santorum could win Pennsylvania's primary on April 24th could be in doubt but if he did that would take another 72 out of the pool. New York would probably go for Romney (unless the Teahadists organize as well against him as they did for Carl Paladino), Indiana is an open primary so who knows what the heck will happen there, and California likes to upset the apple cart some times.

40 delegates have been selected so far, of which Romney has 10. 13 out of 132 super-delegates are backing him as well, giving him 23.

1,015 more delegates will be picked before April, which with his current success rate could yield 315. So barring a Perry or Santorum withdrawal or an upset in Pennsylvania, Romney would pretty much need to win every primary except Texas and Pennsylvania after April 1st to take him over the top.