The Biggest Generic Polling Miss Since 2006

[DonViejo]

February 23, 2021 at 12:00 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

Geoffrey Skelley: “So what happened? Were the polls just terribly off in 2020? Not dramatically, no. Yes, polls once again underestimated Donald Trump’s performance, but the magnitude of that error (about 4 percentage points) wasn’t all that different from past presidential contests, such as in 2012 when polls underestimated Barack Obama’s margin of victory by almost 4 points. And there have, of course, been much larger polling errors, too.”

“But one reason the polling in 2020 has received so much attention is that down-ballot polling, namely the generic ballot — which asks respondents whether they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives — was also off by a similarly large margin in 2020. In fact… the House popular vote was 4.2 points more Republican-leaning than the polls anticipated, making it the largest generic ballot polling miss in a presidential or midterm cycle since 2006.”

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https://politicalwire.com/2021/02/23/the-biggest-generic-polling-miss-since-2006/

[moose65]

1. I could see that...

There were people who have never voted who came out to vote for Trump, and in the process they voted for down-ballot Republicans who they never would have voted for otherwise.

In NC, there are two acquaintances of mine on Facebook, one of whom is in his late 60's, who announced that they had just voted for the first time. I was amazed.

Apparently there were a lot of people like that, who just came out to vote for Trump and voted for other Republicans. I can't see them caring about Commissioner of Agriculture or State Auditor.

[bullimiami]

2. Idiots. Stubbornly refuse to see. POLLS NOT OFF. REPETE. POLLS NOT OFF. NEVER HAVE BEEN.

4% was the magnitude of this cycles voter suppression. 4% more Democratic leaning citizens intended to vote but were unable to cast a ballot that was counted.