The constant complaints here about Manchin distract from the real point

[Tom Rinaldo]

Quite simply we need more Democratic Senators. To expect Joe Manchin to vote Democratic with anything remotely the reliability of his more liberal Democratic colleagues in the Senate is, always has been, and always will remain an utter delusion. Trump won West Virginia by 40 fucking points over Biden in November. Trump beat Biden there by more than two to one. Without Manchin caucusing with the Democrats, Kamala Harris would not get to cast tie breakers in our favor in the Senate, even after our stunning wins in Georgia. The GOP would control the Senate and McConnell would be the Majority Leader there.

Georgia is the point, not Joe Manchin: Georgia and other states like it where Democrats theoretically are within striking distance to win Senate seats. We need to win those type Senate seats. Hell, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Texas and Louisiana are easier lifts for Democrats than trying to win a Senate seat in West Virginia without Joe Manchin running as a Democrat. Do you know how many State electorates backed Trump by a greater percentage in 2020 than did West Virginia? One, Wyoming, where Trump won 70.4% of the vote compared to the 68.6% Trump won in West Virginia. Some people have pointed out that Jon Tester manages to be a more reliable Senate Democratic vote while representing another highly Republican state, Montana. That's true, but Trump only won 56.9% of the vote in Montana.

And nowhere is it preordained that Joe Manchin has to remain a Democrat unless he so chooses. Manchin could win reelection to the Senate from West Virginian easier as a Republican, or a Republican allied Independent, than he could as a Democrat. Periodically someone on DU ponders what's the chance that Murkowsky, Romney, or Collins could defect from the GOP and give Democrats a bigger majority in the Senate? Frankly the chances are greater that Manchin could defect from the Democrats and hand control over the Senate to the GOP. If we keep threatening to primary him, maybe Manchin will.

This isn't a love letter to Joe Manchin. Not only is he a centrist far to the right of me, but the man is a standard issue politician, pretty much as capable of acting hypocritically as any mainstream Republican. But he still votes with Democrats far more often than does any mainstream Republican, let alone the right wing loons. If the conditions were ever ripe to mount a real primary challenge to Manchin from the left, by someone who could go on to win the general election if he defeated Manchin in a Democratic primary, I would definitely consider backing it. Manchin's seat comes up in 2024, and it seems far fetched to me that West Virginia will change that much in the next four years. We'll see. Meanwhile though there are 34 Senate seats up in 2022, of which 20 are currently held by the GOP.. And you don't have to be a wizard at math to know that 22 comes before 24.

Here is an interactive map that highlights all of the 2022 Senate races, ranking probable victories for each party. You can tweak it as you see fit. Right now, with leaners, the forecast is for Dems to hold 50 seats, Republicans 49, with Pennsylvania as a toss up. If we can hold onto all the seats ranked as leaning Democratic, and pick up just Pennsylvania, Joe Manchin's vote suddenly becomes a lot less important. If we can pick off Wisconsin or North Carolina also, without losing any currently blue leaning seats, then the vote of centrist Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona becomes far less critical also.

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/preliminary-2022-outlook

As for Joe Manchin, right now I'm glad we have him. Without Manchin there would be no current talk about which aspects of Biden's Covid plan can pass the Senate through reconciliation, all of it would be Dead on Arrival.

[catbyte]

1. Yep. Just as I said in another thread, I'm afraid that he's the best we can expect from WV.

We need a cushion in 2022 so we don't have to rely on him as a swing vote. But, for now, having a Senator who votes with the caucus 60% of the time is better than one that votes with us 0% of the time.

[Escurumbele]

12. I know the situation is not easy because of WV, but instead of caving in to them he should

campaign to help them understand that voting republican is not in their best interest, that $15.00/hour hike in the minimum wage is a good thing for the economy and the people, many of those who live in WV. As a Senator who represents these people he has to do everything in his power to educate them, to live by his principles, if those are aligned with Democratic principles of course and stop making decisions that are in favour of him keeping his job.

I understand that we are very happy to have Moscow Mitch in the minority, but Manchin is a problem, he tilts the balance to the republicans, and because of it he has the Democratic party hostage.

Maybe the DNC needs to start the education of WV voters, hit them with facts, hit them with information that can help open their eyes, there is plenty of it around.

[ZonkerHarris]

40. above his capabilities

[The Roux Comes First]

2. You Make Some Excelloent Points, Forcing

Me to gag down some of my kvetching.

As things sit today, Texas might be a better prospect than a more liberal candidate from WV, if only the timing were more favorable.

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. Texas remains the Golden Grail, but no open Senate Seats there till 2024

Aside from PA and NC, that map projects FL and OH as our most likely 2022 pick ups. But others, like IA and KS, seem not beyond the realm of possibility also.

[SmartVoter22]

3. Pass CoVid without reconciliation, let Manchin bring the next bill up for his fixes

Pass this bill without one GOP vote, and let VP Harris break the tie.

Then let Manchin bring forth his 'fix' bill before any others, let him be very specific about min wage, about immigration about coal... whatever he wants.

And then let that bill refine those minor points into focus, as it should as a stand alone bill.

Force the main bill though, get those checks out and business the support to prevent small (

[JustAnotherGen]

4. Validating my thoughts

Thank you!

I would rather see Jaime Harrison aggressively pursue a few picks up - then worry about Manchin. I actually think we could pick up a Senate seat in Ohio and Wisconsin - with the right candidates.

[Beastly Boy]

6. You hit the nail on the head.

Manchin is a half full glass. He cannot be expected to enthusiastically support the Green New Deal, but he is very useful in making Bernie the Chair of the Senate Budget Committee. All the talk about the empty half of the glass and ignoring its half full part is missing this point.

[nevergiveup]

7. Thanks for the reality check.

I believe that Joe Manchin sincerely has some progressive values otherwise he would have jumped ship years ago. As West Virginia continues to shift further right I don't believe Manchin will have a very good shot at being re-elected. He didn't win by very much last time. At this point I believe Democrats should consider him a bonus.

[brush]

8. The point being to get at least one more Dem Senate seat so as not to have...

to rely on Manchin's vote.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. Exactly. Manchin is a wildly improbably gift to a Democratic majority

It's not that Manchin is a DINO, he's more of a literal Dinosaur, a throw back to an earlier era when Democrats could win Senate races in West Virginia. He's the last of his kind.

[stillcool]

10. Don't know about the validity of future elections...

who will be able to vote, if those votes will count. The changes that are attempting to be made in state governments, do not bode well for the "next election". The urgency of where we are as a country, seems lost in the holding pattern of political games playing out. Manchin has his reasons, his priorities, seems to me he's holding out for something. What's in it for him?

[BlueNProud]

11. My problem with Mancin is that his opposition isn't principled

he's just flexing his muscles. No one in WV cares about Tanden. He's just saying hey look at me.

[RustyWheels]

16. Exactly

My issue as well.... Just emailed him on his hypocrisy on voting to confirm Zinke, Pompeo, and Sessions, when their past comments/tweets we much more egregious. AND is personal conflict with Tanden's critical statements about his daughter ( company CEO ) during the EpiPen scandal. Said he should recues himself from any votes on Tanden's approval if he couldn't get past his personal feelings.

[Bonn1997]

25. And do his constituents really not want a minimum wage increase?!

[bigtree]

13. no one's unhappy he ultimately helped us gain the majority, but this isn't an election season

...what other legislators do we allow such timidity at legislating time, when there's no election in sight? EVERY criticism of the conservative Democrat is met with this falderal about WVa. voters, as if there are only conservatives in the state, or that anyone to the left of Manchin doesn't deserve a fight for their values.

Hell, we don't even know how long this old man will continue in politics, and it's a sorry advocate who doesn't try and effect change in WVa. just because there's an election there in over three years. When do we begin organizing for progressive change in the state?

If you want moderate policy, then you advocate for it. If you believe in progressive change, you fight for it, even when people tell you that WVa. progressives can't have good things.

But, yeah, elect more Democrats.

[JI7]

19. People don't change minds. Changes came about becsuse of demographic changes

Only alternative to Manchin in WV is a Trump type Republican.

[bigtree]

20. makes no sense to be fighting the next race right now

...for Manchin's seat in '24.

It's a sorry excuse for him voting against the newly elected Democratic president. Maybe he realizes if we bring progressive changes to his state, his brand of kiss-republican-ass politics won't have as much of an appeal.

[JI7]

22. Nobody is going to bring progressives there

[bigtree]

23. they live there

...they're family.

Sad to see so many resign them to republican rule like this was the middle ages or something.

[JI7]

26. Those who want to get rid of Manchin are the ones who want

to force them under total republican rule.

[bigtree]

27. now you're being ridiculous

...and rude.

Go bother someone else.

[JI7]

28. There are millions of Republicans in California

using you logic they should be able to win here if they just run someone even more right wing than Trump.

[bigtree]

29. Manchin's to the right of his republican governor on COVID relief

...he's to the right of Susan Collins on the Equality Act.

But go on and tell us how great he is for the party.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Celerity]

30. +10000000000000000

[JI7]

32. McConnell is worse than Manchin

[Celerity]

31. I do NOT want him gone, I want him to bloody support Biden and our party's agenda on crucial

votes. Some of his potential blocking of things like the 15 usd (over 5 years) minimum wage increase is NOT going to fire up his voters in WV and help him get re-elected in 4 years. It is just silly to say that they are cheering on being paid over 8000 usd a year less (11 usd ph, versus 15 usd ph, at full time).

[JI7]

33. I don't think most of that state votes on issues like this

We don't have much influence there and the best way to take power away from Manchin is to get more democratic senators.

It's the same as taking power from McConnell was not by beating him in his election but by more Democrats winning and taking away majority leader position from him.

[Celerity]

34. If they truly do not vote for a massive issue like this, then Manchin is fucked in 2024 anyway.

They will just go for the actual Trumpian Q-Thuglican. 2024 is also not going to be a 2018 Blue Wave one-off that let him (thank fuck) slip through.

[JI7]

35. I think he wins because they know him and mostly like him

not becsuse of issues.

[Celerity]

36. Then, following your logic, he should just go ahead & play ball with Biden and the rest of our party

as you are saying it doesn't matter much to the chances of whether he gets re-elected or not.

[JI7]

37. It doesn't matter. What he is doing right now is mostly about attention

Last edited Thu Feb 25, 2021, 09:29 PM - Edit history (1)

although the Neera Tanden thing was probably over her criticism of his daughter.

I think he went too far and had to support Haaland becsuse his reluctance to support people of color wasn't looking good even though his objection there was about issues.

[Celerity]

42. I also think another thing often not taken into account is even if we somehow hold

WV in 2024 with Manchin, the potential negative cascade that may come IF he actually does block significant portions of Biden's agenda will hurt us badly in a multiplicity of OTHER states in 2022 and 2024 and may even extend up to the 2024 POTUS race as well.

Millions of voters are not knee-deep into the minutiae and intricacies of the Senate. all they see is:

1 We campaigned on many things things and then, in the crucial 2 GA run-offs made 'We need Senate control so we could get things done' a massive focal point.

2 We won those two races, and thus we and all the MSM said we now have control of the POTUS, the House, and the Senate, so people expect us to do what we promised.

3. IF Manchin blocks a shedload of those 'things', millions of voters are NOT going to do some nuanced, deep-dive forensic analysis. They are going to look at things NOT getting done and say WTF, you guys had control (like we said and MSM said we had) and you did not deliver.

4 The vox populi is not DU, they are not glued to politics like that woman's hair was when she used Gorilla Glue. They are simply going to see a lot of broken promises (and framed as such by the ever massively hypocritical Rethugs as well, even though they do not support fuckall of what we wanted to do) IF Manchin (and/or Sinema) truly goes off the rails.

We may well get hammered (even though in some of the cases it is outrageously unfair) from coast to coast if the chips fall the wrong way. WV will not matter for shit if we lose both the House and the Senate in 2022/24 by margins making it (WV) meaningless, and that blowback could carry over into the POTUS race as well.

A dangerous game he is playing, very dangerous. Hopefully he comes to his senses.

[JI7]

43. I think Biden needs to have a talk with him

maybe invite him to the white house to discuss things.

Him supporting Haaland even though he could have gotten away with not supporting based on the usual stupid argument about jobs in his state if he had not already opposed Tanden shows he felt some pressure.

I think they thought Tanden would have stepped aside and Biden would have appointed someone else before it hit to this point with people bringing up hypocrisy and his daughter.

[Celerity]

44. well, he just go a huge escape valve, the minimum wage is tossed from reconciliation per

the Senate Parliamentarian. Unfortunately there goes a lot of hope for a minimum wage raise (unless we jam it into a Defence appropriation bill perhaps), as there will never be 10 Rethugs to break the inevitable filibuster on a standalone bill.

I am taking a wait and see approach on Manchin, and I never advocated primarying him, as that is suicidal. He did cave on Haaland, so there is yet hope, lol.

Cheers and thanks for the replies.

[Sympthsical]

39. The entire LGBT movement exposes that assertion for the untruth it is

As an older Millennial, I can say with absolute certainty that minds can be changed over time. When I was a young teenager, LGBT rights were just only starting to become mainstream. This was when Will and Grace were first a thing. Around when Ellen came out.

Our society has vastly changed. My own family vastly changed when I and others came within it came out. I have seen my own parents become much less racist and homophobic as they aged.

What fatalistic, misanthropic nonsense it is to say demographics are the only reason things change. If that were so, then why try at all? I'm starting to understand why some in our party are forever crapping on progressives and wailing that we just can't get anything done, so we should give up and accept status quo.

Useless.

Sorry, but your expressed attitude made me incredibly angry. As someone who has spent his whole adult life fighting for LGBT equality and seeing the changes first hand, I cannot believe someone actually believes the idea you just expressed. I understand a little better the constant poo-pooing of progressives who fight for change, and those who merely stand around and criticize those who press for it.

Just ugh all around. Cannot believe that was said out loud in earnestness.

[JI7]

41. Minds weren't changed much. It was more about different generations

with more acceptance among younger people.

[Tom Rinaldo]

21. West Virginia gets three seats in the House of Representatives. All are held by Republicans

A really good start would be for progressives to recruit, fund, and volunteer for a solid Democrat who might stand a chance of winning one of those. In two or four years an incumbent Democratic Congressperson might be able to use that as a stepping stone to the Senate. If a congressional seat remains beyond Democrat's reach, a progressive Senator is a pipe dream.

[bigtree]

24. agree we need to start today

...but not just on those House seats.

Generations grow and die as people make these political decisions. To me, all of this talk about his seat, which isn't up anytime soon, is just an excuse not to confront him or challenge him, which is ludicrous if you believe in progressive change there.

Hell, even the state Democratic party has enough sense to do that.

[Marcuse]

14. Manchin.

[bigtree]

15. here's Manchin, half-full-half-empty

March 18, 2019
Manchin Statement On The Equality Act

Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) today released the following statement on the Equality Act.

"I strongly support equality for all people and do not tolerate discrimination of any kind. No one should be afraid of losing their job or losing their housing because of their sexual orientation. After speaking with local education officials in West Virginia, I am not convinced that the Equality Act as written provides sufficient guidance to the local officials who will be responsible for implementing it, particularly with respect to students transitioning between genders in public schools. I will continue working with the sponsors of the bill to build broad bipartisan support and find a viable path forward for these critical protections so that I can vote in support of this bill."

____The West Virginia Democratic Party was unenthused by Manchin's remarks. In a statement, the party said "we simply cannot allow West Virginia to deny equality and protections for our LGBTQ community."

“If this past Legislative Session didn't prove that we need to fight against discrimination and hate even harder in West Virginia then I don't know what does,” the party said. “The LGBTQ community endured countless remarks of hate and ignorance while bills that were crafted to protect them never made it up for a vote. Senators Joe Manchin and Republican West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito need to lead by example and vote in support of The Equality Act.“

(...Susan Collins (R) co-sponsored the bill.)

[dobleremolque]

17. It's the same with Sinema in Arizona.

She's my senator, I don't agree with her refusal to kill the filibuster and her position on the $15 minimum wage, and her positions on a lot of other progressive issues. But rather than support local or national calls for her to face a primary opponent, the key is to make her irrelevant to flipping other seats currently held by Republicans in other states.

Sure, if Sinema is the Democratic candidate on the general election ballot in Arizona, I'll vote for her. But I won't contribute any money to her and I won't volunteer any time to her campaign.

I can make contributions to other candidates where there's a viable opportunity to elect a Democrat and make Sinema's posturing and pandering not matter in the larger scheme of things.

[Marcuse]

18. He is what he is.

This isn't a love letter to Joe Manchin. Not only is he a centrist far to the right of me, but the man is a standard issue politician, pretty much as capable of acting hypocritically as any mainstream Republican. But he still votes with Democrats far more often than does any mainstream Republican, let alone the right wing loons.

[mvd]

38. Well, I can agree that if he was an R, very little would be possible

But my issue is that he is against things that would help his constituents. The $15 minimum wage would be good for his constituents, for example. He mistakenly thinks he has to take the conservative position in some cases to get elected.