West Virginia's Senator Manchin Is Sometimes a Problem

[MineralMan]

However, those who are calling for him to be primaried in WV are effectively summoning up a Republican Senator in that state in 2024. Manchin is, probably, the most conservative Senator who is a Democrat. He sometimes causes problems with getting certain bills passed in the Senate. However, a Republican replacement for him would never vote with Democrats, so there it is. Manchin votes with the Senate Democratic Caucus on most bills.

Who would be his primary opponent? Someone more progressive? That would mean a certain Republican win for his seat in 2024. How would that benefit us in any way? Someone equally conservative, but nominally a Democrat? We would gain nothing from that. We already have Manchin, who has proven his ability to be elected in WV.

It is notable that those calling for a primary race against Manchin are not residents of West Virginia. They probably have never even set foot in West Virginia. They cannot vote in the 2024 election there. When asked what state they hail from, we hear crickets. Why? Because there is probably at least one Republican Senator in their own state. I'm from Minnesota, which has two progressive Democrats in the Senate. I can't vote in West Virginia, either. We have two Democratic Senators because Democrats (DFLers) have worked very hard to make that so.

My opinion is that everyone who doesn't like Manchin should work to elect Democrats to the Senate in their own state. They should work very hard. If Manchin or his primary opponent loses in WV, it will be to a Republican, certainly. No question about that. But, we have Republican Senators in purple states. We even have Republican Senators in some blue states. Why do we not work toward electing Democrats in those purple and blue states? Hell, why not work to elect Democrats in red states, for that matter? It worked in Georgia, after all.

That would be a far better solution than replacing Manchin with a Republican, it seems to me.

So, if you're advocating for a primary on the Democratic side in West Virginia, please tell us in which state you vote. Perhaps we'll have a suggestion for you that will actually increase our majority in the Senate. Please tell us. Don't tell West Virginians what they must do. Tell us what you are doing right where you live to help elect more Democrats to the Senate.

Thanks for reading.

[Drum]

1. K&R!

[zeusdogmom]

2. Spot on!

[CottonBear]

3. Thank you for posting this.

I am in Georgia where we elected two Democratic Senators and where we must now work to re-elect Senator Warnock in 2022.

Hopefully, our fellow Democrats in Arizona will re-elect their Democratic Senators, and Democrats in other states will elect a few Democratic Senators in 2022 and 2024.

[panader0]

4. Now that Perdue has backed out, who will the GOP run against Warnock? Collins?

[CottonBear]

14. Kelly Loeffler is fronting a GOTV organization for Republicans.

The Former Guy backs former congressman Doug Collins and Gov. Brian KKKEMP appointed Kelly Loeffler to the Senate.

A rematch would be brutal. I would think that Collins would win against Loeffler.

No one is sure who will run. We Georgia Democrats are ready for whoever runs against Senator Warnock.

[moose65]

5. I'm with ya

Most people don't even know this, but West Virginia actually had a Senate race in 2020. Republican Shelley Moore Capito clobbered Democrat Paula Swearengin 70 - 27. That's the fate that awaits any progressive who might beat Manchin in a primary.

We tried to unseat Susan Collins and Thom Tillis in 2020, but that didn't work so well. I think people were caught up in trying to defeat McConnell (which was never gonna happen) and we ignored more winnable races (like Montana).

People poured so much money into McGrath's and Harrison's races in 2020 - money that was ultimately pissed away. But then again, Pelosi's and AOC's opponents were also flush with cash, and they had no chance either.

[JonLP24]

8. People poured a lot of money into Kentucky, Maine, and South Carolina Senate races

But almost nothing for the candidate in West Virginia.

Shelley Moore Capito is the daughter of a popular West Virginia governor in fairness to the Democrat running against her.

[brooklynite]

9. So we could have spent money on FOUR Senate losses?

[LeftInTX]

13. I donated to Sara Gideon, but none of the others

I really thought Sara could beat Collins.

I did not donate to WV because it did not seem winnable. I did not donate to McGrath or Harrison. I did think McGrath had a very good chance. Harrison sure ran an interesting campaign (50 states funding raiser)! It was tempting!

[moose65]

37. True, but I don't think any other Dem could have done any better

Imagine if Capito were like McConnell or Collins. We would have thrown money away to cut her 70 -27 win down to a 65 - 35, or something like that. McGrath never really had a chance in Kentucky. Harrison's race was much closer in SC, and without Trump on the ballot who knows what might have happened.

Dems in Montana were practically begging for some of that money, so who knows what could have happened there.

It's a double-edged sword, really. Sometimes the races that fly under the radar are the ones that we have a chance to win. My two favorite examples: when Jon Ossoff was raking in big bucks in his special House race and everyone was focused on that one, he ended up losing by 3.56 points. That same year, in a special election in South Carolina, Archie Parnell, who did not garner significant coverage or money, lost his race by 3.2 points. And in 2016, when Democrats were hoping to win back the Senate, no one thought that Jason Kander in Missouri had much of a chance against Roy Blunt, but Kander ended up losing that Senate seat by only 2.8%.

[Metaphorical]

6. Thanks for posting this

Manchin walks a tight rope, and he's learned what works to keep that particular Senate spot in Democratic hands.

[JonLP24]

7. This is about policy for me

I support a $15 minimum wage. Biden supports a $15 minimum wage & Manchin doesn't. Sometimes things are that simple for me.

I don't care if he gets primaries or not. I notice most people on both sides of the Manchin debate don't live in West Virginia including the OP.

[MineralMan]

10. There is nobody in the Senate who holds the same views as I do.

Not one. No, I don't live in WV, as I said plainly in my OP. Because I don't, I don't have anything to say about who WV voters elect to the Senate. I recognize that. I own that. I work to elect people where I live.

I disagree with Manchin on the $15 minimum wage. Frankly, I'd like to see a $20 or $25 minimum wage. What I agree with is that we need a Democratic majority in the Senate. We have one right now. I'm not interested in bringing Mitch McConnell back as majority leader. What interests me is in winning races we CAN win in whatever state we CAN win a Senate seat.

Primarying a sitting Senator who is a Democrat makes no sense at all in West Virginia. It would only lead to another Republican Senator. Somehow, Manchin gets elected in WV. That's almost a miracle. He knows where the lines are to get re-elected, too, in his small state with a small population.

Only the voters in West Virginia matter when it comes to who wins in that state.

This is about reality for me.

[JonLP24]

11. I agree that is up to the voters in West Virginia

[MineralMan]

16. Well, I don't know anyone from West Virginia.

I drove through that state once, back in the late 1960s. I drove through it without stopping, on my way to somewhere else. I've never set foot in WV.

[NurseJackie]

12. "It is notable that those calling for a primary race against Manchin are not residents of WV..."

It is notable that those calling for a primary race against Manchin are not residents of West Virginia.

Nailed it! I'm constantly astounded at the arrogance of "out of staters" who have totally convinced themselves (without a shred of evidence to support it, and in the face of an abundance of contradictory evidence) that Vermont-style politics will work in West Virginia.

So, if you're advocating for a primary on the Democratic side in West Virginia, please tell us in which state you vote. Perhaps we'll have a suggestion for you that will actually increase our majority in the Senate.

This is excellent advice.

And it's an EXCELLENT post as well. Thank you for organizing all the important elements of this matter so that others can more easily understand.

[MineralMan]

15. Thanks, NurseJackie!

[bigtree]

19. nice, so the people there who aren't getting the resources they need because of this conservative

...and regulary vote Democratic are to just be abandoned to what amounts to republican neglect and abuse.

You can sit on your hands if that's where you're at, but that isn't how Georgia was turned Blue. It took advocacy from more than Georgia residents to make that happen, and it's naive and short-sighted to suggest 'outsiders' can't and shouldn't get involved and make a difference for the people there who haven't given up hope for a Democratic state which provides more than poverty-level existence for the majority there.

[NurseJackie]

22. I lulz'd again.

but that isn't how Georgia was turned Blue

Georgia has much different demographics than West Virginia. Look it up.

[bigtree]

27. spamming ridicule

...bullying, more than enlightening.

"Look it up?"

You're not speaking to a child, and you don't seem to know anything other than right wing politics in WVa., as though progressive change is an anathema to those there because of their geography.

I don't have any conservative relatives or friends in WVa., and I'll be damned if you or anyone else is going to shove conservative politics down our throats just because you say we can't have nice things.

[bigtree]

17. what nonsense

...supposing there's no one in WVa. other than that old, conservative man who could win there.

It's this attitude that's kept WVa. from realizing and achieving new leadership. FFS, the man isn't up until '24, and even his REPUBLICAN governor just came out to the RIGHT of Manchin on Covid relief, sayng Congress should "GO BIG" on the legislation. Someone needs to get out there and challenge him while he's busy denying his state the amount of resources they need to survive.

We used to say this about Georgia not so long ago. We need to get active there so we won't be teetering on defeat every time we vote on major legislation. If we can't knock him out in WVa., we need to increase our membership to edge him out.

[NurseJackie]

18. Lulz.

We sued to say this about Georgia not so long ago.

Georgia's demographics are much different than those of West Virginia. Look it up. You'll see.

[bigtree]

21. many of my relatives live in WVa., most around Charleston, Ran, and Kanawha County.

...you don't speak for them at all.

I do.

[NurseJackie]

25. I never made such a claim.

you don't speak for them at all.

I never made such a claim.

[bigtree]

28. you act like it when you address me

...can't prove it by me.

[NurseJackie]

29. Not my problem.

can't prove it by me.

Not my problem.

[MineralMan]

23. No, not nonsense.

West Virginia is West Virginia. I don't know anybody who lives there. I assume, though, that the voters in that state behave as they behave and for whatever reasons they have. It is a state with a small population, and one with a broken economy that is largely based on coal mining, something that is no longer viable.

It is a poor state. It is a state with a very high rate of opioid addiction. It is a state that, unlike Georgia, has shown NO signs of shifting toward the left. It is a Republican state, that has somehow elected a conservative Democrat to the Senate. Manchin seems to have found a formula that works there.

Have you been to West Virginia? I drove through it once, without stopping, back in the late 1960s. It has some beautiful scenery, but I didn't have any reason to stop there. Are there any DUers from West Virginia? I don't know.

[bigtree]

32. I have relatives in many areas there, friends too

...worked with quite a few who commuted to our area for work.

We don't spend our time cynical about the politics we practice. It's not just some political club that we're talking about, it's needs and concerns, just like the rest of the nation. When we say WVA. is conservative, we leave out countless residents who are not in any way republican, right-wing, moderate, or anything else.

It's one thing if you're some true believer in these 'moderate' compromises on rights and needs that conservatives practice in Congress. If you're not, there shouldn't be this resignation that West Virginia residents can't enjoy the things other states take for granted, things we advocate for like we appreciate their need out in the country.

What sense does it make to advocate for these things, but leave WVa. out of that fight, or pull our punches? Real people lose when we abandon them to conservative forces in their states. People we know, family, friends.

Your choice, I guess.

[stopdiggin]

35. "outsiders" are an anathema in the region

And for urban outsiders that goes double. One of the reasons I think 'change politics' is going to have to come from within -- particularly in WVa. Really doubtful that the same tactics employed in GA will be successful here.

Agreeing with MM here -- I think it much better if we allow 'skin in the game' stakeholders to decide a political trajectory that will work for this (and other red/rural) states.

[moose65]

38. I'm not sure that's entirely true any more

The economy there is probably not based so much on coal anymore. If I recall correctly, the largest employer in West Virginia is actually the university hospital. Other healthcare centers are also large employers.

You are correct that there's a lot of poverty and a high rate of opiod addiction.

Ironically, there are still more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state. Their current governor ran as a Democrat and won, then promptly changed parties.

I don't know anyone who lives there. I've been to the New River Gorge area and to the Harper's Ferry area several times. There are liberals even in West Virginia. They will determine their own destiny, but I'm sure they could use some help from other states!

[LeftInTX]

20. I'm also convinced that if blue dog, HenryCuellar lost his primary that seat would now be Republican

Cuellar narrowly won his primary against a 26 year old Our Revolution candidate. If someone wants to primary Cuellar, fine, but a 26 progressive in year old in a rural, ranching, gas and oil district cannot win against a Republican.

[JonLP24]

24. Cuellar represents a safer blue district

That was actually a safe primary challenge.

Democratic Cave to Trump on Border Wall Had an Ulterior Motive

Democrats gave Trump major concessions and leverage in the year-end funding bill so Representative Henry Cuellar could get federal funding for a riverwalk in his district.


https://prospect.org/politics/democratic-cave-to-trump-border-wall-riverwalk-laredo/

Cuellar also doesn't have a good record on rights for LGBT people which was one of the reasons for the primary challenge.

[LeftInTX]

31. Laredo is not progressive

It's Democratic, but it is not progressive.

[JonLP24]

33. I doubt a Democrat would have lost there

A lot of people make predictions with arrogant certainty but I don't have a crystal ball.

It was a narrow primary victory for Cuellar so it wasn't like she was blown out.

[LeftInTX]

34. Most of Jessica's votes came from a slice of San Antonio, which is more progressive than Laredo

[MineralMan]

26. Well, generally, I'm a firm believer that

people in a place know best who can win and who cannot. They certainly know better than I do if I don't live there.

[LeftInTX]

30. Yep!

[stopdiggin]

36. Also point out. Just one or two more Democratic seats

in the Senate -- and Manchin's outsized influence is suddenly -- gone. Just like that -- the little man from WVa. is nobody of particular importance. All the oxygen flees the room. And that may impart a difference in behavior and voting style as well.

(Manchin may find that there's many more things he can go along with -- when he's no longer courted as the homecoming queen)

[Tarheel_Dem]

39. Thank you. 👍🏻