Look: the sobering reality is that the Democrats are being held hostage by Manchin.

[Drunken Irishman]

It is what it is but that's always been the massive downside about controlling a split senate.

The Senate Parliamentarian says the minimum wage increase is out? Cool. Guess what? They can't just pass it anyway - even if they fired the parliamentarian like with what happened under Bush.

Why? Because you still need the votes.

Manchin isn't going to budge on this and frankly, the relief package is not going to live or die on $15 minimum wage increase. If the outcome is to pass it without the $15 - or not pass it at all, I guarantee you Pres. Biden and Majority Leader Schumer will vote to pass the bill without the wage hike.

It sucks.

It's awful.

But it's not Biden's fault. It's not Schumer's fault. It's Manchin's for killing it, and Maine's and North Carolina's and Iowa's for failing to give Biden a little breathing room with his majority.

I know, I know! BUT THE REPUBLICANS SEEM TO GET IT DONE. Sure, Republicans have been able to get bills passed through reconciliation - but they also had larger majorities and could afford to lose Republican votes. Even then, we saw their majority crumble when trying to repeal the ACA - and that was with MULTIPLE Republicans saying, "nope!".

Yes, we have visions of Schumer pulling Manchin into his office and playing hardball. You pass this bill or you lose your committee spot.

Then Manchin smiles, gets up, walks out of the office and down to the Minority Leader's and says he wants to caucus with the Republicans - but on one condition: he keep his current committee assignment.

Mitch agrees, because now he becomes Majority Leader again, and the Democrats lose out on any hope of bringing ANY bill to the floor for a vote.

Stephen Breyer wants to retire? Tough shit because no way will McConnell hold hearings for his replacement - yes, even this far out from another election.

Biden's immigration bill? Won't even make it to the floor for a vote with Mitch at the helm.

Statehood for DC?

lmao

The Equality Act?

Not going to get a vote.

THAT is the reality facing Schumer and the Democrats right now.

"But who really thinks Manchin would do that?"

Me. He seems like a spiteful prick and just spiteful enough to do it if he gets his committee assignment pulled. Especially with him being the chairman of that committee.

It seems to me Manchin probably knows he's DOA in 2024 as a Democrat anyway. So, he's either going to retire or get the push he needs to make the switch to Republican and run as a Republican, just like West Virginia's governor, and keep that seat.

Like I said, tho. It sucks. It royally fucking sucks.

But that's what we knew would happen when the Democrats took the majority only by way of the Vice President.

Don't be shocked that there's limits to these powers, especially when one of the deciding votes is a senator for a state that Trump won with 70% of the vote in 2020.

[still_one]

1. Thank-you for perspective

[TheBlackAdder]

34. He's taken over the Susan Collins position and he is flexing his power and seeking attention.

[Turin_C3PO]

2. Good post.

I agree with everything you wrote. Our best bet is to try and grab the open seats in NC, PA, and OH plus Johnson’s seat in WI. That’s the path to make Manchin irrelevant.

[bottomofthehill]

5. Has to be done.

50/50 senate is better than being in the minority but it is still not the majority.

[exboyfil]

9. That is in two years

We really need movement now. I can see getting pounded like crazy in 2022 - you have both Houses and the Presidency - why haven't you delivered on what was promised?

We very well could lose both the House and Senate in 2022. The Senate map looks great, but still...

[Turin_C3PO]

11. I don't see any way

we can rectify the situation before 2022. Unless somehow Manchin and Sinema can be convinced to get rid of the filibuster.

[Fiendish Thingy]

19. It will be too late by then. If Dems don't deliver before 2022, they lose their majorities. Nt

[Turin_C3PO]

24. Maybe but

I don’t see any other way, do you? I’m seriously asking because we seem to be in quite the pickle.

[Fiendish Thingy]

54. The only way I can see is for Schumer to play hardball with Manchin and Sinema

If they switch parties, their careers will end in 2024, so Schumer must push them to the wall on the filibuster and the voting rights act- otherwise Dems will likely lose their majorities for a decade or longer.

Manchin and Sinema must be forced to take a stand (realistically, this would have to be on a showdown to kill the filibuster when the VRA is up for a vote, as the VRA won’t get a floor vote otherwise), and must suffer the political consequences for obstruction.

[stillspkg]

62. I Do

What about a visit to West Virginia by President Biden or Kamala Harris as we have in the past to Georgia to let the people know what he is holding up? Educate the people about it to put pressure on him.

[bottomofthehill]

3. Reality Check

[exboyfil]

4. Seems it would have been worth giving Commerce to Toomey

if that was what it took.

[OAITW r.2.0]

7. Was that an option? If so, Biden should have made the deal....

[TwilightZone]

13. No.

Wishful thinking. None of the GOP Senators would have taken a position that would require them to leave their seats, including the retiring ones.

[OAITW r.2.0]

18. Responding to the upstream post.

Was Twomey signaling an interest in Commerce? I would have made the offer for another Democratic Senate voice.

[exboyfil]

26. I don't know if it was on the table

but it should have been. It seems like something that Toomey would have liked over being a hated minority Senator. Of course he might have had to move his family into witness protection so it was probably a non-starter.

I guess there is still a chance. Move Raimondo to OMB and offer Commerce to Toomey. OMB, as far as I am concerned is more important anyway. I guess Raimondo might feel slighted so it may not be workable at this point. Probably you could have gone with Raimondo at Treasury instead of Yellen.

[BumRushDaShow]

43. Teabagger Toomey doesn't belong anywhere near anything

If one were forced to offer a GOP Senator a position, I would give it to Murkowski before Toomey any day.

[TwilightZone]

10. None of the GOP Senators would have taken a cabinet position.

Including the retiring ones.

[qazplm135]

12. Sinema is against it too

so that wouldn't have made a difference.

[OAITW r.2.0]

6. I was thinking tonight how sad my State, Maine put Sue Collins back in the Senate.

We had an excellent candidate in Sue Gideon, but too many chose Miss "I'll Only Run 2 Terms" Collins.

[Cha]

8. JM needs to think less about himself &

More about Democracy, the country, & the Planet.

[Celerity]

14. Simply having majority control still doesn't get many of those things a vote, due to the filibuster

SCOTUS and Federal Judges, yes

POTUS nominees, yes

But not much else (other than reconciliation, which we have now shot for the year, as it can only be used once and only in 3 specific areas)


the rest (unless we ram say, a minimum wage raise into a Defence appropriation bill and dare the Rethugs to scupper it) is going to be filibustered (and thus no vote will occur) as we do not have 10 Rethug votes to invoke cloture on any of those things you listed. Also, Manchin (again) plus Sinema and Feinstein (and maybe other Dems too) will not vote to bin the filibuster.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. It's definitely going to force a level of compromise.

If the compromise out of this bill is the removal of a $15 minimum wage increase, it's still a very good bill that will hopefully lay the foundation for a strong 2022 and a larger majority.

I do not believe the Democrats have shot their reconciliation for the year. I believe they get one more since they had one roll over.

[Celerity]

30. yes, BUT (as we just found out the hard way) reconciliation is extremely limited in scope

I think people need to come to grips that minus the binning of the filibuster (which isn't going to happen) large chunks of Biden's agenda is DOA, except for (in regards to some of the blockages) the things he can do via Executive Order (again very limited). I was dreading 2022 from the night of the 2020 election (as I saw that we at best would have a 50/50 Senate due to numerous Senate races we failed at, for various reasons which i have went into great detail for for months now) and that dread is only increasing as voters will say wtf, we gave you control (even though it is tenuous and nuanced, many will not see it that way, they are so not political junkies like we are here at DU) and you all (us Dems) dropped the ball on so much. It is not fair, but voters do not at times do fair. We need to REALLY be on point with messaging and recruiting for 2022.

[BumRushDaShow]

52. As a historical note

because of the similar hassle to get something like a minimum wage increase enacted in the past, the last one was done by being tacked onto a Supplemental Defense Appropriations Authorization bill - https://www.dpc.senate.gov/dpcdoc.cfm?doc_name=fs-110-1-88

However due to the Budget Control Act of 2011 (and subsequent later legislation that adjusted the caps, etc) it's harder to do supplementals in a fiscal year.

And yes, reconciliation is generally a shifting around of existing funds, expenditures, and revenues, and whatever they come up with has to be "budget neutral", where the Byrd Rule pretty much forbids "policy riders" (which is what they are apparently interpreting the minimum wage increase as being).

[Celerity]

53. Thank you for the clarification! Now imagine trying to explain that to a pissed off voter who may

struggle to name both their Senators and their House Rep (hell, maybe even the last several VP's).

Arfff

[BumRushDaShow]

57. Well if you look at the link, you'll see we went through this before

and probably with just about every minimum wage increase previously. I remember when they finally did it and they basically had to slide it on a "must pass bill" and at least in the past, it was always "bipartisan" to give the military supplemental appropriations for the various wars going on. So in 2007, it was done as an amendment to the "U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans' Care, Katrina Recovery, and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act, 2007 - Title I: Supplemental Appropriations for Defense, International Affairs, and Other Security-Related Needs".

(snip)

After ten years, Congress passed and the President signed legislation to raise the minimum wage. The Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007 amends the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 to raise the federal minimum wage incrementally from the current $5.15 per hour to:

$5.85 per hour, beginning 60 days after the bill’s enactment (the President signed the bill on May 25; this first step went into effect on July 24);

$6.55 per hour 12 months, or one year, after that sixtieth day; and

$7.25 per hour 24 months, or two years, after that sixtieth day.

American workers are long overdue for a raise. Despite the efforts of Democrats, Congress has not raised the minimum wage since 1997. At the current level of $5.15/hour, a person working full-time (40 hours per week, 52 weeks per year) makes only $10,712 per year before taxes, which is over $6,000, or 40 percent, below the federal poverty guidelines for a family of three. While the cost of living has skyrocketed, the value of the minimum wage has eroded by more than 20 percent since the last increase and, adjusted for inflation, is at its lowest since 1955. As an illustration, Congress has allowed the minimum wage to drop to only 31 percent of average wages, which is woefully out of sync with previous periods when the minimum wage was maintained at or around 50 percent of average wages. (Economic Policy Institute, “Minimum Wage Issue Guide,”4/07; Jared Bernstein Testimony Before Senate Finance Committee, 01/10/07; “Hundreds of Economists Say: Raise the Minimum Wage,”10/06)

The minimum wage has remained stagnant while Congress and the President have received raises. Since 1997, Congress has voted to give themselves eight raises, increasing their salary by $31,600. In 2001, Congress gave the President a raise as well, doubling his salary to $400,000. The time has certainly come to do the same for American workers, who are in desperate need of a raise.

https://www.dpc.senate.gov/dpcdoc.cfm?doc_name=fs-110-1-88

That's why this song from "Hamilton" nails the issue -

[DSandra]

16. "When there is a will there is a way"

One of the best things I learned from the time I was studying business. Find a way to the solution even if you can’t see it on the horizon, and go bold. Partly why business people rule society. They know better than everyone else about sheer dogged determination / perseverance.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. Immigration, equality, DC statehood won't get floor votes with filibuster intact.

If Manchin switches parties, his career ends in 2024- he won’t even win his primary- a more extreme Trumper will. That’s why I think Schumer should play hardball, call his bluff, make him suffer consequences for obstruction.

Manchin won re-election in 2018 by a slim 3%/19,000 votes.

With Manchin’s sabotaging obstruction, the ONLY power Dems have other than controlling hearings and investigations, is confirming judges and appointees, and that is still dependent upon Manchin’s support.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. Manchin's career is over regardless.

It would be absurd for Schumer to turn around dare Manchin to leave the Democratic Party. Absolutely, positively insane.

If only because the second he does that, the Democrats likely lose ANOTHER Supreme Court seat because Breyer + watch all their other lower court judicial nominees go up in smoke. Sorry, but no, none of that is worth the risk. If only saving a portion of the judicial is all we get out of the next two years, plus this bill, and maybe one more due to the Democrats' second shot at reconciliation (I believe they have two, since one rolled over), so be it. Much better than the outcome of Manchin potentially bailing, the Democrats losing the majority and any chance of filling those judicial seats + maybe even getting this stimulus through.

[TwilightZone]

20. Manchin isn't going to caucus with the GOP.

If he was going to do that, he would have done so years ago.

He's also not going to leave the party that pretty much guarantees him reelection. If he switched parties, he would no doubt be primaried from the right and quite possibly lose. That's not happening on the Dem side. He won his last primary 70-30.

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Manchin had no leverage to caucus with the GOP until now.

The dude barely won reelection in 2018 despite it being a solidly Democratic year. He's likely to lose reelection in 2024. It's clear he doesn't give two fucks about supporting the party agenda. So, why wouldn't he bolt if Schumer threatens to take away his power? More importantly, why risk it if you're Schumer?

[Demsrule86]

49. He won a state that Trump carried by 40 points...give me a break.

It is West Virginia...and there was a primary...completely a waste of time...and I think it hurt Manchin

[Drunken Irishman]

55. He barely won a state in an off-election in a pro-Democratic year.

2018 was his worst of his three elections. Why would anyone think it'd be easier in 2024, a presidential election year?

[Duppers]

65. Thanks!

That's something at least. 70-30. Glad to know.

[SharonAnn]

21. Excellent analysis. At least we have the (nominal majority) and Schumer is in charge.

We won't get everything done that we wanted, but we'll get some of them done.

[unblock]

22. Manchin can't get re-elected as a Republican

Switching parties or handing over control to mcturtle would kill his career. He won't do that.

Otherwise, I agree with your post. It's actually surreal that we have a democratic senator from a state like West Virginia in this political environment.

We do have to negotiate with him, and he does have a strong negotiating position. It Schumer is not without power either. The trick is to get the most from manchin that he can give us while still getting re-elected in a deeply red state.

Hopefully, pork goes a long way. Unfortunately, we are going to have to give him a few "conservative" victories along the way. This may be one of them.

[Drunken Irishman]

28. Your post title is half-right. Manchin can't get reelected.

He's not going to win in 2024 as a Democrat. It's not going to happen. He'll lose - and that's even if he decides to want to run again.

[Demsrule86]

35. Manchin will win in 24. As long he chooses WVA will vote for him...and when he is gone, we will not

have a Democratic Senator in WVA for decades...Manchin's vote saved the ACA without it, the ACA would be gone. And why pick on Manchin...I would bet there are other conservadems who wouldn't vote for it either. All our Senates elected recently came from red or purple states. That is our reality. I hope with AOC going top Texas, we will move the needle on the progressive message and other outreach would help also, but the first elected from red states are going to be moderate. It is our reality. So we get what we can. It is unlikely we will have new states quickly so where will the seats we need for a majority come from? If we lose Manchin and we may lose Warnock to Hershel walker in 22 as well...where will the come from...buckle down and work to save 22 and 24 and we get what we can and keep trying to build a stronger majority. Our Republic is at risk if we don't hold one branch of Congress.

[Drunken Irishman]

56. No he won't. He will lose. Save this post.

Manchin's margins the last three elections:

2010: +10
2012: +24.2
2018: +3.3

West Virginia has taken a devastating turn to the right and Manchin will be a casualty of that turn in 2024, especially if, god forbid, Trump is on the GOP ticket.

[FlyingPiggy]

59. Do you know why his margins are dropping so much?

[Demsrule86]

67. He won't lose...wait for it. You do not take into consideration the nature of the elections and the

voters who turn out. But it doesn't matter really...if I am wrong than his seat will be filled by a GOP and we need another Senator to replace him...not easy. You need to take a look at the states. We can't win without moderates and or conservadems...no majority...we get nothing.

[unblock]

46. It will be a delicate balancing act for him, but he's in the driver's seat

He and Schumer should work out some combination of pork, manufactured conflict, and minimal policy concession s that gets him re-elected. He's got two years of the greatest basis for a campaign ever if he plays his cards right.

[Demsrule86]

47. Manchin will win in 24 if he runs...he knows how to do it. He is the only Democrat who will win

WVA for decades to come perhaps forever.

[unblock]

50. Agreed. We can pine for a bigger majority, but getting more from a WV senator is a fantasy

Given our 50-50 senate, he's worth his weight in gold just for voting for democratic committee chairs and most of Biden's appointees.

Really, the fact that he'll support some of our legislation is more than we can expect from West Virginia.

Imagine wasting time and effort and emotion wishing for more support from a senator from Wyoming or Idaho.

[Demsrule86]

68. You are exactly right. All of the new Senators elected recently are moderates.

I can't understand why some can't figure this out. Sinema won't vote the way we want in many case either, nor will others.

[dutch777]

25. Well reasoned and well said and sadly true. Sad that the DNC did not have a better ground game for

2020 but I think with the pandemic and the noise of Trump it was hard. It is, as you note, also costly, for the Dems and also for the country.

[DSandra]

29. If Democrats were bolder, West Virginia would be inundated with a campaign to sell the minimum wage

There would be TV ads, billboards, social media campaigns, respected figures selling the minimum wage increase to the point that West Virginians would be demanding Joe Manchin to approve of the minimum wage increase.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. It's already popular with the American people.

The problem is, it's not a deciding issue for a lot of Americans.

It's like gun control. Most Americans agree in some level of gun control, including background checks. But it's not what people are voting on. Case in point: Florida. 60% of Floridians supported raising the minimum wage to $15 and yet voted for Republicans who opposed it.

[DSandra]

33. With a defeatist attitude, little can get done

Imagine if society had that attitude about the development of the coronavirus a year ago.

It’s easier for someone to have that attitude if they are not the ones directly affected by something.

[Demsrule86]

44. Not a good example with 500,000 people dead.

I doubt many here make minimum wage...the stimulus is needed for the millions that are unemployed and if I could, I would pass minimum wage but if the Parliamentarian rules it out then we need to try again later and pass the Covid bill right now ...no messing around. We don't have time.

[DSandra]

48. If Trump cared, and we had leadership and determination, far fewer would be dead

Your statement doesn’t make sense.

[Drunken Irishman]

58. No but shit like that pushes the needle.

That is an unfortunate reality. About 1.8 million Americans make either the minimum wage or less than the minimum wage, or 2.3% of hourly workers.

[Demsrule86]

45. Florida has raised the minimum wage to $15.00 per hour.

[Demsrule86]

69. That is actually happening. Manchin is under pressure...but it is also other moderate Democrats...

not just Manchin...and the problem is a number of Senators won't get rid of the filibuster (not just Manchin because Sinema is on record as well)and without being able to do the 15 minimum in reconciliation, we need 60 votes that won't happen. So it really is not just Manchin. I think he would vote for it in the end. However, it can't be done in reconciliation.

[Demsrule86]

32. Manchin is not the only one you know...I really wish you would stop. Without Manchin we

don't have a majority.

[NurseJackie]

36. Thank you! I'm sick of it too!

It's ridiculous. The incessant whining about Manchin serves no good purpose. Instead, people should channel their frustration toward something positive. Like... defeating five Republicans senators... flipping their seats to the Democrats, then Joe M will be impotent. He won't matter.

[Demsrule86]

39. I know right? We have big problems and attacking Democrats is the same BS that cost

us policy during Obama's term...for God sakes have these folks learned nothing? Do they want to hand over the Senate and the House to the Republicans? We absolutely need to win another seat in 22...think PA would be a possibility. Warnock could be in trouble with the GOP picking a popular football player. I don't want to lose our majority. And why hasn't Breyer retired? He needs to before the midterm.

[empedocles]

41. Yes!!!

[FlyingPiggy]

60. Very true. Sinema is dropping the ball as well.

[zipplewrath]

37. The problem with centrists

At the end of the day, it is the problem with centrists/blue dog/moderate/conservative democrats. Their power comes from working one side against the other. They can partner with whom ever constitutes the "majority" regardless of party. They are always "in control" in the sense that they can ensure the votes for what they want, and prevent what they don't. Unfortunately, my congress person is one of them but has a D after her name. I'm dubious that anything can be done about that for at least 2 years.

[Demsrule86]

42. That is completely untrue. Manchin did not vote with the GOP majority to end the ACA...he does

what he thinks is right mostly...agree or disagree with him. Two years...you think people will turn progressive in red states in two years? I don't. A big tent is the only way Democrats have ever held the majority going back decades.

[zipplewrath]

77. Nothing is contrary to what I said

Many in the GOP would like to be voting for some version of the ACA. It's political posturing on their part.

[empedocles]

38. Impolite, contrary opinion here. JB & the Speaker are very glad to have JM as a Dem.

As realists, thats just the way it is.

JM has won 3 straight victories in very red W. Va. JM knows what it takes to win in W. Va. JB, et al, know we desperately need JM as that so critical 50th vote., and he is in that key Senate seat, because he represents W. Va., no matter what true blue Dem armchair, commentators may rant and rave about.

JM crushed the left-leaning, BS type, Dem primary opponent in W. Va., and won in 2018. Still strong in November 2020 despite a decisive trump win there.

Reality check.

Be helpful if Dems concentrated more on winning.

[cachukis]

40. Manchin is shrewd enough to be regurgitating

these scenarios. He wants the best butter and the best bread to feed his family. Catbird never had it better, for now.

[zaj]

51. ...the Democrats control the Senate thanks to Manchin.

It goes both ways. Without him, they control nothing.

[OldManTarHeel]

61. The NC election of Cunningham is what created this problem . .

If, he could have only kept his d*** in his pants we likely wouldn't be here.

[Gore1FL]

63. I'd like Harris and Schumer to have a conversation with him.

He needs to be told that if he continues to support the GOP caucus that he can get his committee assignments from McConnell.

[Demsrule86]

70. Absolutely not...he could caucus with the GOP and get anything he wanted. Do you want

McConnell back in charge?

[Gore1FL]

73. He needs to be pressured in some manner or another.

Playing nice-nice with fascists isn't a good look for him and he needs to understand that.

[Demsrule86]

74. First of all Manchin is not a fascist. Secondly, he is a Democrat and this is a Democratic site.

Also, other Senators won't vote to get rid of the filibuster-not just Manchin. So you need to stop. You have to have more Senators and even then the country has moved right thus we will get and have gotten moderate Senators and House members...so we do what we can. And progressives need to work harder to get more states to support them at the grass roots level...we must build support while showing that we can govern. We can't get rid of the filibuster thus we don't have 60 votes to pass them minimum wage bill. And while Manchin doesn't want to end the filibuster, neither does Feinstein or Sinema. And there may very well be more who haven't said one way or the other. So please stop attacking Manchin he is needed for our majority.

[Gore1FL]

76. Read for understanding. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

64. Rely on one rebel/free thinker/conservative/pissed off person?

[Irish_Dem]

66. Everyone has an Achille's Heel, time to find Manchin's

[Demsrule86]

72. You are completely obsessed with Manchin...it is not just Manchin. There are not enough votes

to kill the filibuster and Manchin isn't the only one. Sinema and Feinstein are on record as well. There may be more in fact who haven't weighed in. Since the the minimum wage can't be done in reconciliation and you can't get rid of the filibuster- not just because Manchin either, we don't have 60 votes. So let's move on and get what we can and focus our efforts on 22 and 24 where we have a big risk of losing Congress.

[hamsterjill]

71. Someone needs to find some skeletons in Manchin's closet.

Or else just take him to the woodshed. I’m sorry to appear to advocate violence in any form but I’m really sick of one idiot holding up progress for millions of people.

[Mike 03]

75. Kicking. Also, and apologies if someone else has pointed this out, Kyrsten Sinema

last I checked said she would oppose the $15 minimum wage, at least if it is attached to the stimulus bill.