Covid cases are down 80% since last Nov. We are coming to the end.

[Maraya1969]

Last edited Tue Mar 2, 2021, 01:08 PM - Edit history (1)

Last Nov and Dec we had about 250,000 cases a day. The last two days had about 52,000 cases.

Rounding down to 50,000 that is an 80% decrease.

Keep masking up but know that the end of the tunnel is near.



Edit - Post #15 has a much better breakdown and more good news.

[BannonsLiver]

1. You will likely be attacked for the optimism, I'm sorry to say.

[samnsara]

6. i think of it as cautious optimism..

[pnwmom]

19. It conflicts with what Fauci is saying. It disregards the growing presence of the new variants

that are much more contagious, and disregards Fauci's concern that people are starting to let their guard down.

[FreeState]

26. This n/t

[Wounded Bear]

2. Some cautious optimism is warranted, but like you said, continue to mask up...

[LisaL]

3. We are also coming to a plateu.

And if mutant covids spread, cases will go up again.

[tinrobot]

4. The vaccines will accelerate this as well.

Not quite through yet, but tunnel... light.. end.

[samnsara]

5. i agree!!! Hubby and I are fully vaxed but still mask up and follow ALL the protocals..

..the variants scare the crap outta me but I do feel..for now..a sense of relief. We went to a wine bar (reservations only, very safe, almost empty) on our kinda anniversary (we got married Leap Year Day in Vegas at a Drive thru)..and that was the first time in a YEAR we have been out to eat..only going for essentials and medical appts. Hubby works full time but never strays from his bubble. So Imma too!

[patricia92243]

7. 2021 may be a good year yet - a wonderful new President and the end

end of Covid - as we know it.

[Ms. Toad]

8. No, we're not.

Remember, people thought that back in June and July, and again back in October.

The incredibly more contagious variants of the disease are not yet dominant here, but likely will be later this month (per Fauci). Expect an uptick in cases. In addition, people are tired of masking, and starting to slack off. I'm having to fight a lot more at work to keep people masked - and to keep them properly masked.

We are not yet vaccinating everyone inclined to be vaccinated because of a shortage of vaccines - AND - once we have vaccinated everyone inclined to be vaccinated there are still far too many people who are suggesting they won't be vaccinated to create herd immunity.

And despite the fantastic decline in cases - there is too much disease in the community for the behaviors I'm seeing to be safe (behaviors which include opening up indoor dining and other activities and increasing the concentration of people in those areas & the aforementioned slacking off on wearing masks/wearing them properly.)

[USALiberal]

11. +1000! nt

[Earthrise]

14. +10,000. One of the new variants stays in the nose for a much longer period of time -

according to Laurie Garrett on Rachel Maddow last night. Asymptomatic carriers who don't wear masks over their mouth and nose will reverse progress if they spread a variant like this one.

While tests completed so far indicate that Moderna and Phizer are effective against new variants, not all variants have been tested, including, for example, the new California variant.

If people don't mask up and a new variant that is more resistant to current vaccines increases in the population deaths will rise again. Fauci is repeating - like a broken record, bless his heart - that the way to prevent new variants from emerging is to mask up and stay distanced!

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. 70% - Dec peak 220,000, now 67,760

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Monday and Tuesday figures are always smaller than other days, because of reporting at weekends. Always take a 7 day average for comparisons.

[USALiberal]

10. No we are not! Unless by END you mean December! nt

[HUAJIAO]

12. I will have to disagree in this case.

Compare the cases to last spring and summer. I think that is a better comparison.
The rates of infection are still extraordinarily high.
Plus, too many people refuse vaccination.
Plus too many states and counties are 'opening up' too much too soon- schools, restaurants, SPORTS(what is it about SPORTS anyway that makes them so damn important.?)
Plus the new variants are a great danger.

We may be going in the right direction numbers wise but the 'end' of the tunnel, if there actually ever is one, is not near, in my view.

[FakeNoose]

13. Compared to other countries, we're still in terrible shape

But we are looking better in the USA, compared to last November & December.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. More optimism here!!!

Last edited Tue Mar 2, 2021, 01:15 PM - Edit history (1)

So 30 million people have tested positive. for every 4.6 people that have(had) it, 1 tests positive according to the CDC. So that's 138 Million total with some immunity from having had Covid-19.

15.3% of the US population has now gotten at least 1 dose of the vaccine, that's a little over 50 Million people with some immunity now.

But you cannot add those numbers up as some people who have gotten the vaccine already had the virus. About 1/3 of them actually is a fair estimate. So about 33 million of the newly vaccinated are getting first time immunity of some level.

That means 173 million Americans having some level of immunity to Covid-19. That means we are already at 53% of the population with some level of immunity to Covid-19. Experts say 70% minimum to get to a herd immunity. With 1.8 million vaccines a day, over a million to first time vaccinated, plus people still getting the disease and recovering, we could add roughly 2% every 5 days to that 54%. We could feasibly be at 70% in 43 days.

But we are ramping up vaccinations, so there's an opportunity to get that pulled in.

On the variants. I live in West Michigan, the CEO of Pfizer was on TV the other day with news about that. We know conclusively the vaccine works on the UK variant, we have data strongly suggesting it works on all of the other major variants too, that data will be conclusive in the coming weeks.

Bottom line, there is good news. Keep being vigilant, social distance, wear your mask. AND GET VACCINATED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!!!

Best case, we could be looking at a normal Summer. Worst case, we could be looking at a normal Fall.

[Maraya1969]

16. Your post should be the OP! I'm going to edit mine and mention it. Thank you!

[Johnny2X2X]

17. Let me correct my math first.

I had an error, but it doesn't change it much.

Edit: Math corrected.

[SoonerPride]

18. Things are looking up, that's for sure. But it could go bad real quickly.

The variants can really cause mayhem and get out of control unless everyone continues to mask up and stay away from each other.

We don't have nearly enough vaccine distribution to reach anywhere near herd immunity.

I'm hopeful that things continue to get better.

But we are not out of the woods yet.

[mvd]

20. Lots of good news lately. But..

here in PA, daily case counts are still higher than the May 2020 numbers when the pandemic first got bad here. So we have a ways to go. I am happy we have Biden/Harris leading us and the vaccination pace will definitely help.

[jcgoldie]

21. CDC disagrees

I do think there is good news I also think the greatest threat is people thinking its coming to an end before it is. World numbers have begun to increase again and in the US the negative slope has levelled...

[JoanofArgh]

22. Uh, no. I predict we'll see numbers going up again shortly ,with Governors

relaxing restrictions and the majority of Americans still unvaccinated.

[wiggs]

24. Correct. Officials tap the brakes when cases go up, not to eliminate risk for individuals

but to keep systems from being overwhelmed. Let up on the brakes and cases will obviously go up again until officials once again become worried enough. It will be a roller coaster like that for a while yet. And hopefully we can stay one step ahead of a really bad variant.

They try to balance economy, profits, and public health which might be in their job descriptions but as individuals we end up with not enough accurate information to make our own decisions about our own protection. If you really don't want to get covid and long covid, you have to do your own research and not blindly follow governors' and mayors' decisions about macro-strategies. If you don't want covid, don't eat indoors yet without masks. Don't use public restrooms or be in enclosed spaces with less than optimal ventilation and without premium masks (best not to be in there at all if you can help it). Understand what your school has done in terms of strategies and ventilation upgrades and what the state of community spread is before just accepting officials' pronouncements about safety at schools.

Good reason to be optimistic, but individuals and communities aren't all the same.

Good info at epidemiologists' social media sites such as: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing

[Klaralven]

23. The 7-day moving average has been around 70,000 cases for the last 10 days.

It peaked at about 250 in early January, so we are down 180/250 = 72%.

The November peak was around 180,000 just before Thanksgiving, after increasing during the month from about 85,000 on Nov 1.

December varied but it's peak was around 225,000 before Christmas.

The month of September was around 40,000, before the start of the third wave.

The 7-day moving average removes most of the distortion caused by weekend reporting effects, although it is still subject to holiday reporting variations.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Mr.Bill]

25. The number of cases means next to nothing

unless we also compare the number of tests being given. The percentage of positive cases per test is the important number, and is often unspoken and difficult to find.

For instance, in my county, we have gone from over 250 cases per week to 50 cases per week. Sounds great, until you find out that the positivity rate has gone from 8% to 6%.

[MineralMan]

27. It's not quite time to let down our defenses.

That would be very risky, it seems to me.

I took my car in for a regular maintenance today. I sat in a waiting room while the work was being done. I kept my mask on the entire time, and the chairs in there were 8' apart. That was OK, but I still spend most of my wait outside by myself.

Keep following all protective guidelines.