Being frank, what chance to the HR-1, George Floyd or any even mildly 'progressive' bill stand in

[Nexus2]

the Senate with conditions as they are. It doesn't seem like they have much but I'm open, hopeful to hear differently. It doesn't seem like anything stands much of a chance and it would blow if the Biden administration it stuck mostly spinning its wheel in Republican mud aside from EOs that will used for toilet paper the instant another inevitably gets the Big Chair.

[brewens]

1. Your guess is as good as mine Frank.

[FBaggins]

2. HR1 isn't going anywhere

Not nearly enough support in the senate (it would take 60 votes) and it would never pass muster with the courts

[lagomorph777]

5. It would only take 51 if we could get Manchin et al to go along with eliminating the Filibuster.

Dems need to have a serious pow-wow on what to do about these obstructionists.

I don't care if we have to send $100 billion to WV, AZ, and MA (some of it in unmarked bills for campaigns). Get those people out of the way.

[FBaggins]

7. That isn't going to happen either

There's a list of a million things that we could get with 51 votes if we get rid of the filibuster.

But that isn't in the cards right now.

And in the case of HR1 it doesn't matter - because the courts wouldn't let it happen anyway.

[lagomorph777]

8. We can't afford to just give up. And the courts have been a bit less hostile than I had expected.

We have to keep pushing.

[FBaggins]

10. They'll be plenty hostile to illegal bribes

As they should be.

And no... no amount of "less hostile" will get HR1 through the courts. You might find a district court judge somewhere who is willing to say that it's constitutional, but I don't think there's an appellate court in the nation that would.

HR1 wasn't written to be passed. It was written to get people on the record supporting/opposing better elections.

[lagomorph777]

11. Better elections are unconstitutional?

That seems an extreme view. Especially, the assumption that most courts are opposed to elections.

So we should just crawl in a hole and die?

No thanks.

[FBaggins]

15. Don't be silly

But not everything that you can describe as a "better election" is constitutional.

"No state south of the Mason-Dixon line shall allow a Republican to gain ballot access" would probably make for better elections - but any court would laugh it out of the room.

[lagomorph777]

16. I didn't see that in the bill.

[FBaggins]

17. You were the one with the ridiculous spin that anything producting "better elections" must be ok

I was just giving you a hyperbolic example

As a more relevant example - an independent redistricting commission called for in a state referendum could be constitutional (though the current SCOTUS might very well disagree since Roberts did previously vote against it and he's now beyond the midpoint of the court) - but one that is mandated by Congress? That almost certainly won't get through.

Their relatively-recent anti-commandeering rationale under the Tenth amendment also makes things like automatic voter registration or federalized redistricting a huge stretch.

[BlueTsunami2018]

3. None.

Zero Republicans will vote for them and the Greatest, Most Outstanding Democrats of all time™️ won’t either.

[bullwinkle428]

4. Manchin would probably stop it, even if the filibuster got blown up.

[lagomorph777]

6. Put in a billion bucks for the Manchin Memorial Library and Retirement Resort.

Whatever the fuck it takes. Get this guy out of the way!

[Budi]

12. Wonder who the WV Republicans would replace Manchin with?

The odds of his seat remaining Blue is about zero.
R's would love the lock on a majority.

Manchin plays to hos State but his D gives us the Senate majority.
Until we can elect mire Ossof's & Warnocks where Manchin's D is a make or break necessity, then stop talking about replacing him.
His D is still better than his replacement's R as the balance of power stands today.

Have to look elsewhere for anothe D to elect.

[lagomorph777]

13. I don't mean retire him. Just get him to stay out of the way for a while.

Until, as you say, we can get some decent Ds elected elsewhere.

[gratuitous]

9. It's an odd phenomenon

Democrats pass HR-1 and the George Floyd Justice Act, and nobody says that the Republicans voting against these reasonable bills are going to pay an electoral price in 2022 or 2024. But every Democrat in the Senate is going to pay a heavy price for trimming the $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill by $12 billion.

The conventional wisdom has an odd skew.

[lagomorph777]

14. We already know that the Qpublicans are an implacable enemy. Manchin, in theory,

could somehow be influenced to do the right thing. So that's where we put the focus.