Senator Sinema and the Filibuster

[JustAnotherGen]

I understand completely that she worries about the optics and the appearance that she isn't filling McCain's shoes. She wants to be a 'maverick'. . .

But I wonder if she realizes that non-white voters in Arizona put Biden over the top . . . and if they are disenfranchised, she won't get to continue to be a 'maverick' unless she switches affiliation.

Manchin is another thought process - I believe the Governor of WV is going to run, and Manchin will lose his seat to him. I don't get him at all. Like - he's not winning the next time he's up so go big, before you go home. I don't think he can beat that guy unless he switches affiliation and goes full on Trump.

[Moostache]

1. Manchin is a submarine screendoor...

I have seen people champion his nonsense by stating that it is better to have his "sometimes yes" than another "always no" Republican...I call BS on that assumption.

If he is a "yes" only on votes that are easy ones, but a "no" on tough votes, on 50-50 votes, on agenda killing votes, then what the fuck difference does he make versus a G-NO-P Senator?

If he is unwilling to do the heavy lifting, take the tough votes, risk losing his precious seat...then just drop out and join the other side to try to retain 'power', and I hope the door kicks your ass on the way out...

[lagomorph777]

2. We have to find a workaround. Send giant infrastructure projects to WV, do oppo research, whatever

we have to do.

Same for Sinema Girl. Pork, threats to reveal dirt, whatever we have to do.

[unblock]

4. Without manchin, we pass zero laws, confirm no nominations, and get faux senate investigations

Manchin has earned his keep just by voting to make democrats in charge of all the committees. Let's not deny the massive significance of that.

Yes, it's frustrating as hell for a democrat to oppose our agenda sometimes when we hold the trifecta. But at least we won control of the senate, albeit barely.

Let's just make the most of it and be grateful we even have a democratic senator from one of the reddest states in the union.

[JustAnotherGen]

7. I agree - but his opposition

To the relief bill initially - when his governor was for it? He's going home in 2024.

I think the work around is to fight like hell to pick up Portman's seat in Ohio and Ron Johnson's in Wisconsin.
We also have to maintain Warnock who pledge $15 minimum wage - and his voting block.

The voting block includes people who will be disenfranchised unless Sinema and Manchin signal they are ready to get rid of the filibuster.

If we can get We the People and the JLVRA passed - we can overcome anything coming out of the SCOTUS.

If either of them are against those two becoming the law of the land? Then I won't support them. They are aren't out for people like me.

[unblock]

10. No doubt we'd be better off with a more comfortable majority

It's possible we get there after the midterms, but it will be tough enough just to keep both houses.

As for "supporting" manchin, I would never want him in the cabinet or in a senate leadership role, or on a federal court if he's even qualified for that. But as a senator from West Virginia, he's by far the best we can do. And for now, we need him.

But I would love to get his support to put a crack or two in the filibuster if we can't get rid of it entirely.....

[JustAnotherGen]

13. With the gerrymandering

That the GOP is undertaking in the states right now - it's critical that we get the WTP and JLVRA passed.

The fact that Senator Klobuchar is going there - and she is very much a moderate - tells me she is starting to see the writing on the wall.

And you are right - he'll never be a transformative legislator like Byrd - but that's the best we can do in WV.

[dsc]

5. He actually has cast some tough votes

he voted to convict Trump twice, he voted for the ACA and not to repeal it, not a vote but he is one of the very few who didn't try to get Franken out of the Senate. He also opposed DeVos. He isn't all that and a bag of chips but he has cast some tough votes.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

6. I don't think he's ever been the deciding vote for Republicans or against Democrats

He may vote with the Rs, but not in situations where he's #50 or #51 - like Kavanagh's confirmation.
So Far...
COVID relief is another story, but he hasn't "voted" against Democratic leadership yet. Just leveraged his vote. A fine distinction, but a distinction.

[Laelth]

11. That's my recollection, yes.

Manchin postures, but, push come to shove, he comes down on the right side.

Now, that Senator from AZ, about her I am not so certain.

-Laelth

[AZSkiffyGeek]

16. I think it's the same situation

She's voted to confirm Trump nominations, and was voting with Republicans during the shutdown in 2015-ish (she got a lot of crap back home over those votes - she was fresh in the House at that point), but it was never a situation where her vote made a difference.

[Laelth]

17. I hope that you are right.

We really need to eliminate the filibuster.

-Laelth

[JustAnotherGen]

22. Very true

Thank you. Believe it or not - I need those 'reminders'. They keep me patient.

[Mike 03]

3. Yes, this has been on my mind the past few days.

I usually defend Senator Sinema but this has been bothering me more and more.

This morning I was trying to remember what Ezra Klein writes towards the end of his book Why We're Polarized about the filibuster. He's approaching our predicament very realistically, looking at it almost from the perspective of Game Theory, and I want to refresh my memory about what he said about this and send it to Sinema as part of an overall argument.

This feels like an important moment strategically, where if we don't do something dramatic history will look back on this time and say, "Democracy was lost right here" and it comes down to these two people. Hitler's rise to Chancellor was basically made possible by two people playing political Russian Roulette with Germany's future.

[JustAnotherGen]

8. This

Democracy was lost right here" and it comes down to these two people. Hitler's rise to Chancellor was basically made possible by two people playing political Russian Roulette with Germany's future.

I think 2020 - and in particular in Georgia -

When they LET US vote, when they don't stand in our way - black voters have a major impact on election results. Sinema is foolish if she doesn't make moves to ensure that all the voters - not just white voters in her state - have access to the ballot and can be assured that their vote is counted.

The only way to get there? Get rid of the filibuster. Which means - she could win in 2026. Her non white population of adults in Arizona is growing. She's being too up close - and not looking far enough down the road.

[Laelth]

9. Don't they need a big, long bridge to nowhere in AZ?

Come on. If she can’t be persuaded to do the right thing for the right reasons, she must be bought, and the need of the American people, right now, is so great that I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it.



-Laelth

[Calista241]

12. Manchin has already said he's not running again.

So we're going to lose that seat regardless.

[JustAnotherGen]

14. I wonder then

What does he want his legacy to be?

[Calista241]

25. He's basically said that he doesn't want to be remembered as the person

that destroyed 'the greatest deliberative body' moniker of the Senate.

Personally, I think Manchin is secretly giving a lot of cover to other Dems so they don't have to actually vote on this. I think every single one of them realize that they used the filibuster to save our democracy during the first 2 years of the Trump Presidency.

In addition, we nuked the filibuster on nominees under Harry Reid, and Repubs used that power to ruin our judiciary for the next 50 years. I shudder to think what would happen if Trump and the Repubs come back in 2024, and we've just handed them the roadmap to fuck us.

How much legislation do you think we could pass in a 18 months (before the next election) if we got rid of it? Everyone likes to think we'd have judicial reform, social security reform, military downsizing, medicare for all, and all of our prayers would be answered. We can't even get 50 votes on a $15 minimum wage. How are we ever going to pass all that other shit if we can't do easy stuff like raising the minimum wage?

Just like I believe Manchin is giving cover to Dems that oppose changing it, I think Repubs FEAR what would happen if Trump could do anything he wanted. McConnell, to his credit, resisted Trump on elimination of the filibuster and the rest of his party didn't have to come out and vote on actually removing it. I have no doubt that Trump would have browbeat / threatened / blackmailed every single repub that resisted a vote on it into removing it. If McConnell had gotten rid of the filibuster, I have no doubt we'd have a flat tax and the IRS would be eliminated, abortion would be straight up outlawed, LGBTQ people would be actively oppressed, big tech would be micro-managed, and a bunch of other shit I shudder to even contemplate.

Be careful what you wish for.

[JustAnotherGen]

27. Good points - we just need TWO things

The We The People Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

That ensures that we have a fighting chance in 2022, 24, 2032, 2044, etc. etc.

We tend to look just at DC - but we have to look at the 40+ actions being taken in states right this minute - to disenfranchise non white voters.

I'm 48. I truly believe that if they do not pass those two bills - with the gerrymandering and potential devastation of what is left in the original VRA by the SCOTUS -


I'll never see another Democratic Majority for the rest of my life.

I've given up the SALT CAP being lifted. We bought our home in 2013 with the promise of a 100 year old law that we would not have to pay property taxes twice - being demolished by the GOD and Trump in December 2017.

But I'm a black American woman, I'm the party base - the absolute core -

And dang it - they aren't taking the franchise away from us.

The ONLY way to get those passed - is removing the filibuster.

Can we be honest?

Republicans don't like black people EXISTING because we vote our INTERESTS. How to stop up us? Take away our right to vote.

We only have what we have today in the Senate because non white voters were ALLOWED to vote in Georgia AND have their vote counted.

[Efilroft Sul]

15. Manchin and Sinema (and their supporters) need to realize one thing.

If they don't get rid of the filibuster, especially to pass the voting rights bill, this is an existential threat to not only the party being competitive but to the republic as well.

[Laelth]

19. You've got to dance with them what brung ya.

Kudos to the late, great Molly Ivins. RIP.



-Laelth

[JustAnotherGen]

21. Thank you

You put it much more succinctly than I did.

[Efilroft Sul]

23. You're welcome.

Too many Democrats think, "Well, all we have to do is pick up the Ohio senate seat, or the North Carolina seat, or blah blah blah in 2022 and we'll negate Manchin and Sinema. We just have to be patient."

And that kind of patience will kill us in the midterms. If we don't pass this legislation now, the midterms will be too late. We will lose both houses in 2022.

[JustAnotherGen]

24. Exactly

I don't think Sinema really understands how she BENEFITS from all people being able to vote.

She can lose a few of the Trump cross overs with the people coming of age in Arizona between now and her next race.

Meanwhile - in Kentucky - their Kentucky State Government is pushing a bill to ensure that Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is not allowed to pick McConnell's successor should he die. That's a raw power grab.

[Efilroft Sul]

26. Republicans are too deep into authoritarianism.

We need to pass the voting rights bill in the Senate so that all Americans who are eligible to vote can vote to stop them. We don't need mealy-mouthed discussions from our side about tradition or patience. Democrats were give the power to govern. Use it.

[JI7]

18. Manchin voted to impeach Trump Twice . He isn't doing any if this

because it will help him politically.

I think part of it is ego and liking the attention he gets from all of this.

[JustAnotherGen]

20. That's a good point

I read elsewhere on the thread that he is not running again .

Going out with a bang of attention perhaps?