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Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:17 PM

Here's an onion in the Covid ointment:

"New study warns Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines could be far less effective against South Africa variant"

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/542182-new-study-warns-pfizer-and-moderna-covid-19

24 replies, 2243 views

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Arrow 24 replies Author Time Post
Reply Here's an onion in the Covid ointment: (Original post)
Disaffected Mar 2021 OP
Celerity Mar 2021 #1
Hugin Mar 2021 #19
Celerity Mar 2021 #21
Ilsa Mar 2021 #2
dchill Mar 2021 #8
Skittles Mar 2021 #3
MontanaMama Mar 2021 #9
grantcart Mar 2021 #15
Skittles Mar 2021 #18
grantcart Mar 2021 #22
Dorian Gray Mar 2021 #20
Corgigal Mar 2021 #4
Disaffected Mar 2021 #7
I_UndergroundPanther Mar 2021 #5
Celerity Mar 2021 #12
I_UndergroundPanther Mar 2021 #16
beaglelover Mar 2021 #6
Thekaspervote Mar 2021 #10
Celerity Mar 2021 #13
Bayard Mar 2021 #11
Hekate Mar 2021 #14
radius777 Mar 2021 #17
BannonsLiver Jun 2021 #23
Disaffected Jun 2021 #24

Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:19 PM

1. Moderna's vaccine candidate was found to be 12.4 times less effective against the South African

variant, and Pfizer’s was found to have a reduced effectiveness by about 10.3 times.

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Response to Celerity (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 06:39 AM

19. Well, there's a fine howdy-doo.

With that variant already present in the Eastern US.

Please, check my math here.

Those factors would mean that Moderna is roughly 8% and Pfizer around 9.7% as effective against the SA variant as they are against the current dominant strain respectively. Both of those are somewhere around 95% effective, but, I assumed they were 100% effective at what they do. So, it may even be they are a little less effective.

Ouch. Dismal.

However, some immunity is better than no immunity which is where we were this time last year. Except, those of us like myself who aren't vaccinated yet.

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Response to Hugin (Reply #19)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 07:37 AM

21. all the vax manufacturers are quickly coming out with tweaked versions designed for the variants

MY wife and I start a tweaked Moderna vax study within the next ten days for so (here in Stockholm).

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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:22 PM

2. Then we need to do our best to halt transmission

of the virus so mutations are less likely to occur, and prevent spread of the SA variant.

Hey Texas, are you listening?

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Response to Ilsa (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:30 PM

8. Texas is not listening.

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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:23 PM

3. that's why I wonder about all these people celebrating being vaccinated

as if it is a cure-all

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Response to Skittles (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:33 PM

9. I don't see anyone here celebrating vaccination as a cure all.

I do see them celebrating as it being a step toward normalcy. Anyone paying attention knows they must continue to wear a mask and social distance. I got vaccinated today and I am celebrating it and I applaud anyone who has gotten their opportunity as well. The shot is our best chance to avoid severe illness, hospitalization and death....well worth celebrating!

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Response to Skittles (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 02:16 AM

15. The efficacy is higher than we had any right to expect


Even if the vaccine isn't 100% effective against transmission it appears to be 100% effective against morbidity and 99% effective against hospitalization.

Plenty of reason to celebrate.

Even if the variants require a yearly booster the high death and hospitalization rates will be a thing of the past. It has exceeded similar efforts in the past in both speed and efficacy.

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Response to Skittles (Reply #18)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 12:47 PM

22. Lol, gloomy, absurd and not up to date

To begin with your original point is not that there is some reason to be worried but that you cannot perceive why people are celebrating getting vaccinated, that is absurd. Three months ago thousands of people were dying a day, the intensive care system in American hospitals was near collapse and death by Covid 19 was the number one cause of death in the US. In three months all of those trends will be wiped out. Death from Covid 19 is expected to decline by 95%. Hospitalization rates are plummeting but so far the efficacy performance of the vaccinations is out performing the original high expectations.

The best data in hand right now is that if you get the vaccine you have eliminated the risk of dying from Covid, even if you were to get it.

Three more specific points:

1) The news on the variants is improving, not getting worse. (Not surprised that Forbes is, again, off the mark). From the NYT today



https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwLsmpJSnNSpfzRgPDWsRrgNWhM

The variants look a little less scary
I recommend you keep two different ideas about the variants in mind at the same time: First, one or more of the variants could create terrible problems — by being highly contagious, by reinfecting people who already had Covid or by causing even more severe symptoms. A British study released yesterday, for instance, found that the B.1.1.7 variant increases the risk of death in unvaccinated people.

But — here’s the second idea — the overall evidence on the variants has been more encouraging so far than many people expected. The vaccines are virtually eliminating hospitalizations and death in people who contract a variant. Reinfection does not seem to be widespread. And even if the variants are more contagious, they have not caused the kind of surges that seemed possible a couple of weeks ago.

In Florida, where B.1.1.7 has spread widely, “there’s no sign of any increase in cases,” Dr. Eric Topol of Scripps Research wrote. In South Africa, where the B.1.351 variant was first detected, cases are nonetheless plunging:

https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/N44Q53v1zDAdNAJNcMx1ivQJV4I8SzaylDk-9x1r1SY5CPU1reNsgAZrweLqPMgl4TWvJ4JfbCL1lQfg4P7ysMMTbH3nhxI9TsI31kbc8BBJKOqzRPGbx959neFGrugxrjTmwHuKw32wtchfljO6hnpjWuetie9Qx8A36BuhpO66ZRfGVHGm=s0-d-e1-ft#

It’s a remarkable decline, given the variant. What explains it? Growing natural immunity appears to be part of the reason, The Financial Times has reported. Rising vaccinations are also helping. So did the restrictions that South Africa imposed in late December and January, including “a ban on alcohol sales, the closing of all land borders and most beaches, and an extended curfew,” Bloomberg explained.


2) The efficacy paradigm is real. The facts are that vaccine is radically reducing the severe caseload not only in Covid 19 but also in the variants. Let us assume your most gloomy interpretation (which the most recent facts don't share but could happen) that a more contagious and virulent variant takes hold that is resistant to the current vaccine.

The most logical prognosis would be that if the scientific community could come up with such an effective vaccine with no head start and being basically blind sided that the likelihood of the world scientific community developing an omnibus vaccine that could combat all variants is high given the attention and leadership we now have.

3) We now have a functioning public health system. We now have a government that is committed to science and public health. Just the fact that PODs are giving vaccinations at a single site is a positive sign. It means that instead of spit balling Lysol treatments that when the next public health challenge comes, and it will, that we will have a better educated public and more effective government to deal with it.


Talking to other people who got vaccinated I found that virtually everyone I know has felt an unexpected emotional response to it. The reality is if you get the vaccination you are not going to die from Covid 19.

Some folks seem committed to misery, I hope that you are not. The best objective medical news today is that getting a vaccination, and the general trends are reasons for celebrations as today's summary from the NYT times (which has been very pessimistic at times):



When I last gave you an overview of the U.S. situation — two weeks ago — I highlighted a mix of positive trends (declining nursing home deaths and encouraging vaccine news) and negative ones (rising caseloads and falling vaccination numbers). Since then, the good news has largely continued, and the bad news has not.

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Response to Skittles (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 07:06 AM

20. Who is doing that?

I think people are feeling relief that they'll be better protected. But, cure all? Hardly.

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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:25 PM

4. They are both working on a booster.

They will just clip the new rna, and again we can teach our immune system what it is.
Pretty amazing really. Wear a mask, still be careful.

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Response to Corgigal (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:30 PM

7. Thank you,

that's reassuring. Just goes to show though we ain't out of the woods yet, not by a long shot.

Scoffer States such as Texas are just going to prolong it...

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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:27 PM

5. Damn I just got my 1st. moderna vaccine yesterday

Will I have to get the j&j one too?

Wonder if they are even compatible.

Shit.

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Response to I_UndergroundPanther (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 01:38 AM

12. no, just wait (go ahead and get you 2nd vax) until Moderna's next variant-tweeked vax comes out

and then get it as a 'booster shot'.

My wife and I are soon starting a study for the new Moderna variant vax (here in Sweden).

They just started human trials in the US.

You will be fine, do not worry.

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Response to Celerity (Reply #12)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 03:05 AM

16. Thank you

Wow cool that you are doing the studies. Just wanna say thank you.

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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:28 PM

6. They'll come out with a booster shot, no biggie!

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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Wed Mar 10, 2021, 10:56 PM

10. The Pfizer vaccine does protect against the Brazilian variant which is the worst one

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #10)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 01:50 AM

13. yes, it is the South African variant that Pfizer and Moderna are not so great against. That said,

all these firms are pounding away at 'tweaked' versions, so new, improved vax's should be out in a few months. We (wifey and I) soon start a human trial here in Stockholm for the new 'tweaked' Moderna vax.

A multivalent booster candidate, mRNA-1273.211, which combines mRNA-1273, Moderna’s authorized vaccine against ancestral strains, and mRNA-1273.351 in a single vaccine at the 50 µg dose level and lower.

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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 01:26 AM

11. We are scheduled to get ours next Wed.

I was so surprised. Called my doctor about something else, and happened to ask about status of getting the vaccination. She said--Oh, just call our other office. They are giving them.

Easy peasy! 25% of Kentuckians have now been vaccinated (thank you Gov. Beshear!)

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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 02:08 AM

14. It's a virus. It mutates. Like the annual flu, for which scientists have to make vaccines ...

...on a best guess basis, every year.

That’s where we are with this. So far, everything I’ve heard about all 3 COVID vaccines from Rachel Maddow’s scientist guests is that if you get vaccinated, you might get sick later, but you won't end up in the hospital.

Also, as I read here a week or so back, there are 3 or 4 Russian “news” sites busily spreading disinformation in the US about all our vaccines, with particular emphasis on J&J. Can’t find the link now, but it was posted here, and as a consequence I think we all need to be extra-careful about where we are getting our science news.




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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Thu Mar 11, 2021, 03:23 AM

17. The quicker we get the world vaccinated

the more difficult it will be for the virus to spread and mutate, as even the existing vaccines have some defense against the variants, which (along with masking, social distancing etc) slows it down until we get booster shots specifically designed to fight the variants.

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Response to Disaffected (Original post)

Thu Jun 17, 2021, 01:36 PM

23. We're 3 months down the road since I bookmarked this

The fears were not realized.

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Response to BannonsLiver (Reply #23)

Thu Jun 17, 2021, 02:53 PM

24. Yeah, we just have the Delta variant to worry about now.

We just had two folks die in a local hospital from the Delta. One was unvaccinated, the other was fully vaccinated (the report did not specify which vaccine the vaccinated victim had received or whether he/she had underlying conditions).

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