General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHere's an onion in the Covid ointment:
"New study warns Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines could be far less effective against South Africa variant"
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/542182-new-study-warns-pfizer-and-moderna-covid-19
Celerity
(43,304 posts)Hugin
(33,120 posts)With that variant already present in the Eastern US.
Please, check my math here.
Those factors would mean that Moderna is roughly 8% and Pfizer around 9.7% as effective against the SA variant as they are against the current dominant strain respectively. Both of those are somewhere around 95% effective, but, I assumed they were 100% effective at what they do. So, it may even be they are a little less effective.
Ouch. Dismal.
However, some immunity is better than no immunity which is where we were this time last year. Except, those of us like myself who aren't vaccinated yet.
Celerity
(43,304 posts)MY wife and I start a tweaked Moderna vax study within the next ten days for so (here in Stockholm).
Ilsa
(61,694 posts)of the virus so mutations are less likely to occur, and prevent spread of the SA variant.
Hey Texas, are you listening?
dchill
(38,471 posts)Skittles
(153,147 posts)as if it is a cure-all
MontanaMama
(23,307 posts)I do see them celebrating as it being a step toward normalcy. Anyone paying attention knows they must continue to wear a mask and social distance. I got vaccinated today and I am celebrating it and I applaud anyone who has gotten their opportunity as well. The shot is our best chance to avoid severe illness, hospitalization and death....well worth celebrating!
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Even if the vaccine isn't 100% effective against transmission it appears to be 100% effective against morbidity and 99% effective against hospitalization.
Plenty of reason to celebrate.
Even if the variants require a yearly booster the high death and hospitalization rates will be a thing of the past. It has exceeded similar efforts in the past in both speed and efficacy.
Skittles
(153,147 posts)
.."resistance to rolled-out vaccines"
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/03/10/researchers-say-rapidly-spreading-uk-covid-19-variant-is-up-to-twice-as-deadly-as-others/
still too many unknowns
grantcart
(53,061 posts)To begin with your original point is not that there is some reason to be worried but that you cannot perceive why people are celebrating getting vaccinated, that is absurd. Three months ago thousands of people were dying a day, the intensive care system in American hospitals was near collapse and death by Covid 19 was the number one cause of death in the US. In three months all of those trends will be wiped out. Death from Covid 19 is expected to decline by 95%. Hospitalization rates are plummeting but so far the efficacy performance of the vaccinations is out performing the original high expectations.
The best data in hand right now is that if you get the vaccine you have eliminated the risk of dying from Covid, even if you were to get it.
Three more specific points:
1) The news on the variants is improving, not getting worse. (Not surprised that Forbes is, again, off the mark). From the NYT today
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwLsmpJSnNSpfzRgPDWsRrgNWhM
The variants look a little less scary
I recommend you keep two different ideas about the variants in mind at the same time: First, one or more of the variants could create terrible problems by being highly contagious, by reinfecting people who already had Covid or by causing even more severe symptoms. A British study released yesterday, for instance, found that the B.1.1.7 variant increases the risk of death in unvaccinated people.
But heres the second idea the overall evidence on the variants has been more encouraging so far than many people expected. The vaccines are virtually eliminating hospitalizations and death in people who contract a variant. Reinfection does not seem to be widespread. And even if the variants are more contagious, they have not caused the kind of surges that seemed possible a couple of weeks ago.
In Florida, where B.1.1.7 has spread widely, theres no sign of any increase in cases, Dr. Eric Topol of Scripps Research wrote. In South Africa, where the B.1.351 variant was first detected, cases are nonetheless plunging:
https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/N44Q53v1zDAdNAJNcMx1ivQJV4I8SzaylDk-9x1r1SY5CPU1reNsgAZrweLqPMgl4TWvJ4JfbCL1lQfg4P7ysMMTbH3nhxI9TsI31kbc8BBJKOqzRPGbx959neFGrugxrjTmwHuKw32wtchfljO6hnpjWuetie9Qx8A36BuhpO66ZRfGVHGm=s0-d-e1-ft#
Its a remarkable decline, given the variant. What explains it? Growing natural immunity appears to be part of the reason, The Financial Times has reported. Rising vaccinations are also helping. So did the restrictions that South Africa imposed in late December and January, including a ban on alcohol sales, the closing of all land borders and most beaches, and an extended curfew, Bloomberg explained.
2) The efficacy paradigm is real. The facts are that vaccine is radically reducing the severe caseload not only in Covid 19 but also in the variants. Let us assume your most gloomy interpretation (which the most recent facts don't share but could happen) that a more contagious and virulent variant takes hold that is resistant to the current vaccine.
The most logical prognosis would be that if the scientific community could come up with such an effective vaccine with no head start and being basically blind sided that the likelihood of the world scientific community developing an omnibus vaccine that could combat all variants is high given the attention and leadership we now have.
3) We now have a functioning public health system. We now have a government that is committed to science and public health. Just the fact that PODs are giving vaccinations at a single site is a positive sign. It means that instead of spit balling Lysol treatments that when the next public health challenge comes, and it will, that we will have a better educated public and more effective government to deal with it.
Talking to other people who got vaccinated I found that virtually everyone I know has felt an unexpected emotional response to it. The reality is if you get the vaccination you are not going to die from Covid 19.
Some folks seem committed to misery, I hope that you are not. The best objective medical news today is that getting a vaccination, and the general trends are reasons for celebrations as today's summary from the NYT times (which has been very pessimistic at times):
When I last gave you an overview of the U.S. situation two weeks ago I highlighted a mix of positive trends (declining nursing home deaths and encouraging vaccine news) and negative ones (rising caseloads and falling vaccination numbers). Since then, the good news has largely continued, and the bad news has not.
Dorian Gray
(13,491 posts)I think people are feeling relief that they'll be better protected. But, cure all? Hardly.
Corgigal
(9,291 posts)They will just clip the new rna, and again we can teach our immune system what it is.
Pretty amazing really. Wear a mask, still be careful.
Disaffected
(4,554 posts)that's reassuring. Just goes to show though we ain't out of the woods yet, not by a long shot.
Scoffer States such as Texas are just going to prolong it...
I_UndergroundPanther
(12,463 posts)Will I have to get the j&j one too?
Wonder if they are even compatible.
Shit.
Celerity
(43,304 posts)and then get it as a 'booster shot'.
My wife and I are soon starting a study for the new Moderna variant vax (here in Sweden).
They just started human trials in the US.
You will be fine, do not worry.
I_UndergroundPanther
(12,463 posts)Wow cool that you are doing the studies. Just wanna say thank you.
beaglelover
(3,466 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,754 posts)Celerity
(43,304 posts)all these firms are pounding away at 'tweaked' versions, so new, improved vax's should be out in a few months. We (wifey and I) soon start a human trial here in Stockholm for the new 'tweaked' Moderna vax.
Bayard
(22,057 posts)I was so surprised. Called my doctor about something else, and happened to ask about status of getting the vaccination. She said--Oh, just call our other office. They are giving them.
Easy peasy! 25% of Kentuckians have now been vaccinated (thank you Gov. Beshear!)
Hekate
(90,643 posts)...on a best guess basis, every year.
Thats where we are with this. So far, everything Ive heard about all 3 COVID vaccines from Rachel Maddows scientist guests is that if you get vaccinated, you might get sick later, but you won't end up in the hospital.
Also, as I read here a week or so back, there are 3 or 4 Russian news sites busily spreading disinformation in the US about all our vaccines, with particular emphasis on J&J. Cant find the link now, but it was posted here, and as a consequence I think we all need to be extra-careful about where we are getting our science news.
radius777
(3,635 posts)the more difficult it will be for the virus to spread and mutate, as even the existing vaccines have some defense against the variants, which (along with masking, social distancing etc) slows it down until we get booster shots specifically designed to fight the variants.
BannonsLiver
(16,369 posts)The fears were not realized.
Disaffected
(4,554 posts)We just had two folks die in a local hospital from the Delta. One was unvaccinated, the other was fully vaccinated (the report did not specify which vaccine the vaccinated victim had received or whether he/she had underlying conditions).