Do the Lincoln Project people, excluding Weaver, and the other...

[brush]

never-trumpers—Bill Kristol, Rove, Joe Walsh, et al, have a chance of beating back trump in the republican party?

I sure hope they try because it will weaken the right in '22 and '24.

[onecaliberal]

1. Weaver damaged them. They've been pretty quiet.

[Big Blue Marble]

7. They are hardly quiet.

They are dropping podcasts and have LPTV shows regularly as well as tweeting
and sending out fundraising emails.

[onecaliberal]

8. I follow them on twitter. Their feed is nothing like it was before the election. Most people don't

listen to Podcasts. It's been more than 10 days since I got a fundraising email from them.

[OnDoutside]

10. "Before the election" being the operative phrase. They got pummeled

from the far left and the far right, but appear to have stabilised the ship. They still have that report to come out so I think they're in limbo until that comes out. In the meantime they have their two podcasts, the ads and Twitter accounts. It will be interesting to see the new end of quarter filings to see how donations have gone. That will tell what their long term future is like.

[onecaliberal]

12. I agree. I hope they survive. They serve a good purpose.

I think all of them left the party.

[OnDoutside]

13. Yes, I think all the remaining LPers have moved to Independent.

[Cha]

28. Except Steve Schmidt

.. he's a bona fide registered Dem now!

[OnDoutside]

29. Yes, thanks Cha, I had forgotten.

[Cha]

36. you're Welcome, Doubtside..

[onecaliberal]

30. Definitely. He said they're the only party that believes in democracy.

[Cha]

37. Right!

[onecaliberal]

40. Novel idea.

[brush]

32. He and Wilson are the two I love to listen to. Both are...

eloquent in different ways. Wilson is earthy in how he gets his points across while Schmidt comes across as a learned scholar who just lets the wisdom spill out.

I hope they both keep it up.

[radius777]

21. TLP is restructuring with Tara Setmayer as the head.

She's just as good as Wilson, Schmidt et al in terms of being hard hitting and media savvy. We will need them in fights going forward, especially over voting rights and in the 2022 midterms.

https://news.yahoo.com/lincoln-project-adviser-tara-setmayer-225539926.html

[onecaliberal]

23. We need everybody willing to keep it real and tell the truth about the fascists.

[herding cats]

22. I'll disagree about the podcast. That's extremely millennial and flaming hot.

Ebooks and podcast are the future. Pop in your ear buds and workout/hike/run and listen. It's a symptom of being way too busy and overbooked.

Beyond that I definitely agree they appear to have scaled back. They have a much lower profile lately.

[Celerity]

27. 'Most people don't listen to Podcasts.'

Almost everyone I know in my age cohort of 18-30 (and my particular group is global in scope, including many Americans) listens to podcasts. A qualifier is needed for your statement.

Btw, TLP is far less active than they were, IMHO; for what it's worth, so we agree on the main point.

[onecaliberal]

41. Sadly, most of the people my age do not listen to pod casts.

The white males are too busy destroying everything in sight.

[Celerity]

43. fair enough (and sadly true)

[Deuxcents]

2. One bad apple

Should not cause this bushel to be thrown out. Maybe I’m not as up to date but I appreciated their efforts n think they have a place in our discussions. Agree at times or not. I hope they stay active.

[MontanaMama]

3. I see at least a post a day from TLP on Instagram.

But yes, no media appearances from Rick Wilson et al for a while now.

[FlyingPiggy]

4. I am hoping they are just laying low for awhile and in a year or so, they will be back

...with a vengeance. As long as there is a neo-nazi, Qnut threat out there, we need their brilliant minds. They are SO good at what they do. I hope they don't disappear.

[More_Cowbell]

5. I'm not sure who they affected, other than Trump

LP spent a lot, to related companies, on making really good videos. But as far as I can tell, most of the videos ran online, not on TV. Trump definitely saw them (the one about Pence, in particular, seems to have really riled him) but I don't know how many Trump voters saw most of them.

[OnDoutside]

11. They were quite specific on what they were targeting if you had

bothered to find out.

[JHB]

14. Yes, they were. First of all, Trump himself, then...

...according to reporting, to spend tens of millions of dollars in swing states through Election Day, most focused on turning GOP voters against Trump and on Senate races.

How did the latter part turn out?

Trump garnered over 11 million more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016, for a total that was higher than almost any candidate in history. Almost thanks to the very obvious exception, but as far as TLP is concerned, it doesn't point to them having any significant effect on reducing Republican vote counts.

2020 Republican turnout for Susan Collins was up by 4,000 votes from 2014, which was enough for her to handily defeat her opponent.

2020 Republican turnout for Joni Ernst was up by nearly 300,000 votes from 2014, which was enough for her to score a return ticket to the United States Senate.

2020 Republican turnout for Thom Tillis was up by over 1.2 million votes votes from 2014, which was more than enough for him to knock off his opponent.

Lindsay Graham sailed easily to victory by almost exactly doubling his 2014 vote total.

That doesn't speak well for their effectiveness in ousting Trump-enabling senators.

So where were they effective? Among Republicans, that is.

[OnDoutside]

15. That's hugely misleading. They weren't playing in every state, and

even within the ones they were, it was specific counties. It's significant that places like Maine where Collins overperformed Trump by 10% suggesting that Republicans did come out to vote for Biden, but then continued on to vote Republican down ballot. That was replicated elsewhere and suggests that this motivating factor won't be there in 22.

[JHB]

17. And is that due to TLP? Or is it Republicans who voted for Johnson or McMullin in 2016...

...because they refused to vote for "that woman," and figured that their cop-out back then put Trump in office so maybe they shouldn't do that again?

Where is the concrete data that TLP shifted anybody who wasn't already shifted? What shows they were effective? Independent of TLP itself, that is, unless they want to release the numbers they tout as delivering votes (and given its current state, if the numbers are as good as they like to claim they probably should release them to bolster some level of confidence).

[radius777]

20. Biden defeated an incumbent president largely

due to overperformance in the suburbs - the type of moderate voters TLP was targeting. 44k votes across 3 swing states (AZ, WI, GA) determined the presidency. TLP also made the Dem base feel like someone was 'in the ring' fighting back which in past elections (Gore, Kerry, Hillary) we properly failed to do. Morale is a key component in turnout.

[OnDoutside]

25. And you have the concrete data that they didn't ? I'm comfortable

with the fact that in such a polarised election that many Republicans came out to vote Trump out of office, probably the only thing that made them do so, but then went back to the GOP for the down ballot races. In a National election where 44,000 votes decided whether Biden won or lost, in States where it mattered like Pa, GA and Az, which were places TLP were working in.

Were they the sole reason for those wins ? No of course not, but it's also a disingenuous and deliberate tactic of the far left to entirely diminish/discount their contribution to the Biden campaign effort. And the reasons are quite ideological. However, I'm happy to take the opinion of solid Dems like David Plouffe over that lot. Guys like him know the score, and I'm content with that.

[More_Cowbell]

19. I'm well informed on the LP, thank you

I can't imagine why you think you have any idea about what I know. Thank goodness for DU's "ignore" function.

[OnDoutside]

24. Excellent ! And while you're doing that,

Google "Purposes of a forum"

[TxGuitar]

6. What's that expression?

something like "when your enemy is digging a hole, just watch while he digs deeper"? something like that? Let them have their civil war, they don't need help from us and they're not welcome in our party unless they embrace our values. We're not moving right to accommodate them, hell the party is right enough already.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

9. Rove?! That piece of dog shit couldn't give less of a shit what happens to

the country.

[OnDoutside]

16. To answer your specific question, no. Trump controls the RNC, through Romney McDaniel, and

potentially Don Jr.

That said Never Trumpers will continue to work on the reachable old school Republican voters, to reduce the Republican Party vote. They met a couple of months ago to work out an approach, but were split on whether to form a 3rd party or destabilise the GOP from within. Now with so many of the remaining mainstream Republican Senators retiring like Blunt, Toomey and Burr, the GOP is about to become even more Trumpy/White Nationalist. I can't see where they survive as a party long term.

[brush]

18. That would be my favored result.

I don't think trump, with looming financial and legal problems, will be the huge factor he is now in the republican party, and I don't see Hawley, Cruz, Haley or the other wannabes having the appeal to take over.

[OnDoutside]

26. I agree although I have no doubt that they will attempt to rewrite

history....it's what they do !

I think while Trump will keep the grift going as long as possible, ultimately one of those losers will get the nomination. Imagine Trump in the background running the Primaries like a version of the Apprentice

The main thing is that they won't be able to move forward while he is any way connected, and if HR1/VRA is passed quickly, the GOP will be trapped in a mess of their own cowardly making.

[brush]

31. It's going to be an interesting few months. Glad we're in the driver's seat.

What's your take on how we pass HR1/VRA with the filibuster still in place?

[OnDoutside]

33. My overriding fear is that it's so precarious, they have to get this done

next, they simply have to.

They are going to have to create an exception for voting rights, just as McConnell did for the SC and Reid did for the Federal judges.

I commented on a thread where Robert Reich said that Biden needs to work on Sinema and Manchin, that Reich has misread the situation. Manchin has already given out noises that he would consider it.

Of course he would.

Logically, who would these laws benefit most, Sinema and Manchin or AOC and Booker ? Sinema and Manchin of course !

If Republicans get away with all these voter suppression laws in the Red States, that will be Sinema and Manchin stuffed.

Get HR1 and VRA through and it not only helps minorities, fights gerrymandering but helps existing Red State Dems.

The interesting thing is whether any of these Bills will be watered down, or added to for example voter ID which is a (false) touchstone for Republicans. I think they will use anything like this to demonise Democrats, but Democrats should press on regardless. That said, I think Democrats could offer a compromise that anyone who doesn't have a passport or driver's license, would be entitled to a picture voter ID card, paid for by the Government.

[brush]

34. Good points on how Sinema and Manchin can be persuaded.

Vote suppression can hurt them. Now that you mention it, it's a blinking neon sign. Of course. It can cause them to lost their next election.

A voter ID card for everyone is fine, but is it really necessary? I've done voter reg many times on campaigns and one of the things that new registrants have to produce to the register is a valid state ID or passport which has their signature on it. Then they nave to fill our the registration form and sign it with a signature that matches.

Then when they show up to vote that signature is on file and poll worker pulls it up and has the voter sign their name and the signatures have to match. In other words, they've already been ID'd when they registered to vote.

The ID requirement is sort of a red herring argument that fool a lot of people who don't know about voter registration.

[OnDoutside]

38. Yes of course it's a red herring, but if they want to play that game,

and they will, Democrats could say that they'd agree to voter ID with picture, BUT anyone who doesn't have picture id, the government will provide a picture voter ID card free of charge to the applicant. Cut their argument from under their feet.

That said, Democrats have the numbers, so could say Eff You, we're going with the bill as is, which would be great.

One thing I meant to say is that having to produce voter ID is a very normal to thing here in Europe, it's just been weaponized in the US.

[uponit7771]

35. Without HR1 the kGOP will be the party in power

[OnDoutside]

39. 100% agree. They're going for it, so Democrats must meet them

head on. Actually I was listening to the latest Bulwark podcast today where HR1 came up as a topic between Charlie Sykes and Bill Kristol. Interesting that there was little pushback from them about it, in fact Charlie was saying that while there some things that he had misgivings about in the bill, he said no Republican was in any position to criticize in light of the insurrection.

[uponit7771]

42. +1, that's a good point. MAGA Cultist have cornered themselves because of 1/6