California's Newsom might actually be in trouble

[Sympthsical]

Let me lead with there is 0% chance I'll be voting to recall Newsom. He's fine. But I was on Facebook this morning doing St. Patrick's Day things - like you do. I haven't been on in ages, so I was glancing around friends' pages. The antipathy for Newsom among my friends was unknown to me. One friend, who is the Democratiest Democrat who ever Democratted, posted just yesterday, "I have no coins to give to French Laundry right now shhhhhiiiiiit"

So I was wondering if there were any polls done. I hadn't been closely following the whole thing. This is . . . closer than I would've imagined.

There is currently an effort to recall Governor Newsom. Would you vote to recall, or to keep Governor Newsom?

Vote to Recall: 38%
Vote to Keep: 42%
Undecided: 13.9%
Would not Vote: 6.1%

And the campaign hasn't started in earnest. But this number really, really surprised me.

Regardless of the recall effort, would you vote to re-elect Governor Newsom in 2022, or do you think it is time for someone new?

Re-elect Governor Newsom: 41.7%
Time for Someone New: 58.3%

I think people really underestimated how much the French Laundry stunt pissed off people here. I mean, I was pretty pissed, but I wasn't at, "Recall the guy!" level pissed. Apparently this is a thing. We may have to gear up for this one. Sigh. Because we have nothing else going on in this state apparently.

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/exclusive-poll-californians-split-on-newsom-as-recall-looms/

[jorgevlorgan]

1. The folks who started this are doing it because they think masks are fascism

Or something. But others have been convinced that the covid cases are far worse than they needed to be and are blaming him for it, despite most of it being due to utter stupidity. His saving grace could be that "someone else" is not a viable option

[blm]

2. I hear people are really pissed about unemployment system

which seems to be running months behind.

[Sympthsical]

7. I'd read, but don't quote me, that fraud was getting flagged everywhere

Even with people who had easily legitimate claims. So people weren't being processed for a long time. It was all gummed up.

I really need to do some reading. This polling really surprised me. California is so ridiculously blue.

[blm]

12. Need to bring in a team to fix it and process claims ASAP

[jorgevlorgan]

3. Also after this is done they need to substantially increase the number of signatures

Needed to recall a governor. The mechanism is clearly being abused by butt hurt losers who can't get over losing.

[Sibelius Fan]

4. Plus, they were given a 120-day extension to collect enough signatures

after falling woefully short of reaching the number during the allotted time.

[ripcord]

8. The judge had no choice but to issue the extension

He had already granted extensions to signature gathering for two initiatives backed by democrats because of covid.

[jorgevlorgan]

11. omg

[CrispyQ]

9. Yes, to more signatures required!

The right wing nut jobs in our state (CO) have tried to recall Gov. Polis two times in two years. They also get anti-abolition bills put up almost every election.

I've come to the conclusion that 40% of our adult population haven't matured past 10 years old & still believe that everything should go their way.

[winstars]

5. Newsom won't be recalled.

[Sympthsical]

6. Yeah, I don't see it either

I was just surprised by the polling and what's being said in my social circle (all Democrats). This was entirely off my radar.

[kcr]

10. I don't live in CA and if I did, I would NOT vote to recall

However, I do not and have never really had a favorable impression of him. Yes, the recall effort is a GOP-led venture, but I don't think he does himself any favors.

[Sympthsical]

13. I've never been fond of him, to be honest

Seems entirely too pleased with himself and is a transparent political climber. People like that always rub me the wrong way.

But, I'm not going to vote for recall. If anything, I'd just vote for someone else in the primaries if someone good is in the offing.

I knew people were pretty angry with him, but the extent of it surprised me. His re-election numbers are completely tanked. It's inneresting.

[kcr]

15. It sure looks that way

Since I don't live in California I don't have a sense of how they feel about him generally, but those polls don't look good for his political future. I don't think he'll be recalled though.

[winstars]

16. The timing for him will be very good; if there can be a good time for a recall...

In April and into May, California in going to start to receive a massive amount of vaccine doses. California could do 4 million jabs per week with the facilities up and running at the moment. They are currently getting around 1.7-1.8 million a week.

So by May, a whole lot more Californians will have been vaccinated and a lot of biz restrictions will be lifted. So the economy will be better. He will be able to say while it wasn't pretty California, a state with 39 million people and with some areas with density that rivals NY, didn't do too bad during the pandemic.

I would be more worried (although I am concerned) if the recall was tomorrow.

Newsom does seem a bit smarmy at times but I think once he starts to really engage these recall idiots people will wake up to the fact that the alternative is way worse than the guy who went to eat at The French Laundry.

[ripcord]

21. The problem is that Newsom is really bad at optics

The French Laundry dinner pissed off a lot people including democrats since he had told the public they shouldn't even have family over. Now we have him backing the Poseidon desalination plant that is being pushed by his friend Jason Kinney, the lobbyist who's birthday they were celebrating at the French Laundry. This is going to push a number of buttons and get people asking if this wasn't the reason Newsom attended that dinner and is willing to go against the environmentalists who are opposing it. If Newsom keeps doing things like this it is going to be harder for us to get the level of backing he is going to need because sure as anything some democrats will have their name on the recall as a candidate for governor.

[winstars]

22. I think The French Laundry dinner pissed off EVERYBODY. It was a really stupid move.

But if Dems are willing to let a Republican become the Gov because of that dinner, well, I find that breathtaking.

I didn't know about who was at the dinner or desalination plants being built that are going to hurt California. I agree stupid ideas are... stupid... Not cool at all...


What other Democrat can win statewide if Newsom is recalled?

[ripcord]

23. People aren't thinking that far ahead

When Grey Davis was recalled it was assumed Cruz Bustamate would be elected but the field of democrats was too deep and the appeal to have California's problems terminated was too strong. That is the problem with recalls in California, they are totally unpredictable because of the two vote system.

[Yavin4]

14. At some point, voters get tired of one party rule.

And will vote for change.

This is why some Republican governors and legislators rig their systems to stay in power.

[IcyPeas]

17. beware! all those people who signed those petitions will get out and vote!

so there better not be any apathy from dems getting out to vote.

GET OUT AND VOTE.

(I am in SoCal and I will not vote for him to be recalled)

[Dorian Gray]

18. Perceived

hypocrisy is the worst thing a politician can do in a time of struggle for his constituents.

I am not a californian so I have no bone in this fight. I am not read up on the other issues. I know there is an anti-masking community that is making hay right now, but I can't imagine they are that strong.

But I do know people don't like to be told to do one thing and have their leaders do another. And in his case, it seems to have stuck.

[Tree Lady]

19. Also if people are losing jobs in mass the last

Thing you want is a photo of you at the most expensive elitist restaurant in the state. I heard him on the view, he knows it was big mistake and is apologizing I am hoping he learned a lesson and will stay in office.

[DarthDem]

20. No, he isn't

The recall is going nowhere.