Electric automakers must brace for rising battery materials costs, Goldman says

[Klaralven]

BEIJING — Growing demand for electric car batteries will cause prices of the main materials to surge, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a March 18 note.

That in turn will drive prices of batteries higher by about 18%, affecting the total profit of electric car makers since the battery accounts for about 20% to 40% of the vehicle cost, the Goldman analysts said.

While the report didn’t give specific price targets for the commodities, the analysts’ model predicted a return to historical peak prices would more than double the cost of lithium for electric battery makers. That of cobalt would also double, while the cost of nickel would rise by 60%.

“Prices for the three main natural resources have been rising since the start of 2021,” the Goldman report said. “We believe that in order to promote sustainable EV industries, some countries may consider implementing policies to increase national stockpiles.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/goldman-electric-cars-face-rising-battery-lithium-nickel-cobalt-costs.html

[jimfields33]

1. Good grief. Aren't they 2500 dollars to replace already?

[Budi]

3. I will drive my V-6 gasoline engine car until we both die of old age.

[Miguelito Loveless]

9. A shame.

I’ve been driving electric for seven years and will never go back to gasoline. Too dirty, expensive, and troublesome. Also, very hard on the lungs.

[Budi]

11. Another shame is in Post #10. Pick your Poison.

No thanks.
I'll drive my gasoline engine car until they invent a superior mass transit so no one has to drive a vehicle at all.

[Miguelito Loveless]

6. Depends on the size of the battery pack

My Model 3’s pack is 80kWh with a 300+ mile range, would cost around $12K to replace, but the price continues to fall. Goldman is anti-EV and seldom has anything good to say about Tesla or any other EV makers. Right now the price is around $137/kWh capacity on average. A kWh costs 12 cents, and will get you 3.5-4.5 miles.

New battery chemistries and designs are coming this year, so prices are likely to fall regardless. For example, LFP batteries (Lithium-iron phosphate) are likely to be deployed in sub-300 miles EVs. What they lack in energy density, they make up for in price, safety, and longevity. All three components are in plentiful supply.

[jimfields33]

12. I think you have to be middle class at least to be able to afford an

electric car. First initial price is beyond amazing. Yeah tax credits are nice but you need money first. Then you may have to put a special docking station in your garage and increase monthly electric bill. Even 10 dollars is more then some budgets can handle. And then the replacement parts. 12,000 but might decrease? They better go down to a hundred dollars which is what is currently paid for a new battery.

[Miguelito Loveless]

13. My first EV in 2014 was a used 2012

Nissan Leaf. I bought it for less than 1/3 it's cost new, as at the time no one knew how to price used EVs.

Small cars like the Leaf can be recharged at home on a standard 110v plug. Larger batteries will require a 220v circuit. Yes, you will use more electricity, but the cost is much less than the gasoline needed to get you the same distance.

So, the avg US car gets 24.2 mpg. At $2.59/gal, that's 10.7¢ per mile driven.

An EV manages 3.5 miles per kWh. At 12¢ kWh, that's 3.4¢ per mile drive

Looking at the average of 13,500 miles per year, that translates into $1,444.50 for gasoline, versus $459.00 for electricity.

Also, you realize that the 12v battery is NOT the same thing as the 400v battery pack for an EV. The battery pack is a rechargeable fuel tank, and together with an electric motor, it replaces your ICE motor, transmission, radiator, water pump, fuel pump, catalytic converter, muffler, exhaust manifold, alternator, and all the fluids required by those components.

EV's are getting cheaper every year, and will have price parity with gasoline cars in 18-24 months, and without tax credits within 36 months.

In the meantime, used EVs are still a decent bargain.

[TheBlackAdder]

20. Let me guess, written 3 weeks after Goldman bought majority shares in all supply chains.

[Budi]

2. Lithium, Cobalt. Meet the New 'Fossil Fuel'

Good luck!
Mining of dirty toxic & environmentally destructive minerals.

Now double & triple the cost of batteries for everything from your phone to your EV auto, the skies the limit when pricing of the next gen "Fossil Fuel" & it's all you will have availible.

They're simply trading one toxic overpriced commodity for a brand new shiny one.

Its really fked up 😕

[Klaralven]

4. Global annual car production has fluctuated between 90 and 100 million vehicles / year

It's not going to be easy to ramp up mining to supply materials for all those batteries.

[Budi]

5. I agree. I did notice there is a large lithium/cobalt mine in Africa,

..where ther use cheap labor & no regulations, and the area of Africa near the mine, is the same area Elon Musk announced a new mega Tesla production factory.

Guess it will be easier & cheaper to ship lithium cobalt & nickel direct from mine to factory.

I think it may be interesting to watch where he builds his factories. Is the a mine nearby? Or the potential for one in the near future?
Watch as more talk of mining these minerals in the US begins.
Where's he putting the next Tesla EV factory?
Just an obsevation.
Where there's a lithium mine, there'll be a Tesla factory.

*See, cuz I just don''t particularly like nor trust Elon Musk.
It's not about being environmentally friendly with him & his EV cars, its all about wealth.

He obviously could care less about the toxic conditions of the Africa mine, to the point that he's willing to exploit the labor condtions & build a mega factory right there.

🤬😡

[Miguelito Loveless]

8. Lithium is primarily found is Australia, South America, China

Canada and even the US (they are re-opening a mine closed in the 90s to meet lithium demand 90 miles from my home in NC), only about six countries in Africa have much lithium, and not enough to warrant a battery plant. Cobalt is being phased out of batteries because of its problems with the environment and human rights. I would also point out that oil refineries use way more cobalt than EVs, and it is consumed, whereas batteries can be re-purposed and recycled, recovering the cobalt.

Oil companies are ramping up anti-EV propaganda with astro-turf groups, since EVs represent a major threat to their income.

[Miguelito Loveless]

7. Lithium is not that hard on the environment

since it is found in briney water, and is extracted by evaporation. Cobalt is being phased out of battery cells, and will be 0% in a few years. More cobalt is used in oil refining than in EV batteries, and that cobalt is lost forever, while cobalt in batteries can be recycled.

[Budi]

10. Disagree. The environmental cost of Lithium mining is being downplayed

From: Salon Article, 2019

SNIP
Specifically, mining for lithium — the essential element for batteries used in many electric cars, as well as other portable electronics — is wreaking havoc on the world's deserts.

Lithium is found in the brine of salt flats. In order to obtain lithium, holes are drilled into the flats to pump the brine to the surface. This allows lithium carbonate to be extracted through a chemical process.

Last week, Bloomberg published a report detailing how the boom in lithium mining is irreversibly destroying the local environment of northern Chile’s Atacama desert.
Mining for lithium means means removing large amounts of water, which means depleting the water supply for locals.
According to the report, the Tilopozo meadow in Chile used to be a shelter for shepherds traveling at night, yet has become barren due to lack of grass or water. That puts a severe strain on local farmers.

“We’re fooling ourselves if we call this sustainable and green mining,” Cristina Dorador, a Chilean biologist, told Bloomberg. “The lithium fever should slow down because it’s directly damaging salt flats, the ecosystem and local communities.”

********

Here's a better source:
Nevada Lithium Mining

"Lithium Mining: The Hidden Environmental Cost of EVs"

https://usa.streetsblog.org/2021/02/09/lithium-mining-and-the-hidden-environmental-costs-of-evs/

I have found nothing about mining of these minerals that is safe or clean.
Throughout the world it is unregulated & exploited for profit.
Its not about the environment at some point, it is profit. Exactly like fossis fuels.
But Clean & Green is an attractive sales pitch.

[Miguelito Loveless]

14. All unregulated mining will have negative consequences

The solution to the mining into the salt flats is to not use open air evaporation, and instead use a closed system evaporator, which retains the water, and pumps it back into the ground, sans lithium. This is, of course, less profitable, but ALL governments need to reign in rapacious capitalism. The shift to low/zero cobalt batteries also means a shift from lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide, which is found in hard rock, rather then brine. Extraction of lithium from sea water is on the horizon, and could be a companion operation to desalinization plants.

Now, that said, there are ZERO ways to build the next generation zero emission cars without some environmental impact. What we have to do is minimize the impact as much as possible. If we eliminate oil exploration, drilling, refining, transportation, and burning from the equation, that is a massive improvement. It is NOT perfect, or without impact, but it way less damaging than simply business as usual.

When comparing apples to apples, cradle to grave CO2 generation, EVs produce far less over their life.

But, if you have a better solution to our CO2 problem than EVs and renewable energy, please share it.

https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/does-electric-vehicle-emit-less-petrol-or-diesel

[Budi]

15. Trading one environmentally toxic resource for another is not a solution either

Here: a quick google of lithium mining in the congo should be required reading at this point.
https://www.google.com/search?q=lithium+mining+in+the+congo&oq=lithium+mining+in+the+congo&aqs=chrome..69i57.10003j0j7&client=ms-android-samsung-ss&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

As I watch the pile on by Corps & Stocks for the "lithium, new generation of fossil fuels", all I see is the same big money players vying for position as what ocvurred with Fossil Fuel industry.
Nothing has changed except the selling for profit of a new environmentally damaging industry.

I would hope that regulation can be legislated long before they become too big politically to be reigned in.
Otherwise we are no better off.

Here's what's happening as the market grows with giddy greedy excitement:

Lithium’s moment to shine appears to have finally arrived, thanks to the massive electrification drive and robust demand for electric vehicles.

Specifically, lithium prices have been on a tear thanks to explosive demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI).

BMI says battery grade lithium carbonate midpoint price (EXW China, ?99.0% Li2CO3) for mid-March was a good 88% higher since the start of the year to over $12,600 a tonne, the highest level since March 2019.

Lithium hydroxide prices are up 20% over the timeframe, although a relatively deep discount to carbonate continues to exist.

Cobalt and nickel free vehicles are proving to be a runaway success.

SNIP
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is home to over half of the global cobalt reserves and provides over 70% of the total cobalt feedstock production globally. Unfortunately, for many years, human rights groups have highlighted severe human rights issues in cobalt mining operations including child labor, leading to buyers shunning supplies from the region.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-africa-50812616
Apple, Google, Tesla and Microsoft are among firms named in a lawsuit seeking damages over deaths and injuries of child miners in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The case has been filed by the International Rights Advocates on behalf of 14 Congolese families.

They accuse the companies of knowing that cobalt used in their products could be linked to child labour.

DR Congo produces 60% of the world's supply of cobalt.

The mineral is used to produce lithium-ion batteries used to power electric cars, laptops and smartphones.

However, the extraction process has been beset with concerns of illegal mining, human rights abuses and corruption.

BTW, This is where Musk chose to build his biggest Tesla Factory
*****

Here:

https://www.google.com/search?q=lithium+mining+in+the+congo&oq=lithium+mining+in+the+congo&aqs=chrome..69i57.10003j0j7&client=ms-android-samsung-ss&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

And this doesn't even address the environmental damage to the desert areas of the US now being eyed for mining.
The plant, wildlife & all that thrives within that ecosystem is threatened, especially because of the enoumous amount os water needed for mining these minerals

Point being:
I see ZERO serious call for legislating regulations on the US mining industry, to prevent exactly what happened when the Fossil Fuel Industry was left to devour our environment.

If not dealt with asap, we will be left with the same disasterous long fight we had with the same big money political influences as Fossil Fuels.

Or, "Why Lithium is the new generation of Fossil Fuels"

[Miguelito Loveless]

16. No, we are trading one HIGHLY destructive

civilization-ending resource, for a far less destructive one. It even shows up in your quotes:

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is home to over half of the global cobalt reserves and provides over 70% of the total cobalt feedstock production globally. Unfortunately, for many years, human rights groups have highlighted severe human rights issues in cobalt mining operations including child labor, leading to buyers shunning supplies from the region.

Yes, cobalt is bad to mine on many levels (though again, it's use in refining gasoline results in its consumption, while it can be recovered from EV batteries). However, in the sentence right above that one:

Cobalt and nickel free vehicles are proving to be a runaway success.

So, the future is cobalt and nickel free batteries. No demand for DRC cobalt by Tesla.

BTW, This is where Musk chose to build his biggest Tesla Factory

Source? I have been following the EV battery industry since 2009 (which is dominated by Tesla) and have read of no plans to build a Tesla factory in DRC. Current factories are Sparks, NV, Berlin, Shanghai, Austin, TX, and rumours of one in India later this year.

Again, if you have a solution to our transportation and energy needs that doesn't use fossil fuels, or electricity, please tell me about it.

[Budi]

17. I would feel as guilty driving a gasoline engine car as an EV auto

Considering the damage to the areas being mined & the people exploited.

The arid US regions are already battling over water rights. Mining will decrease that flow even more. It harms, in the long term, plants, animals, migratory species & people.

Just cuz its not in my particular backyard doesn't make me feel like I'm suddenly contributing to some grand salvo of environmemtal greatness.
While big global corps at the top cash in.

Regulate it now & put price contols in place or nothing will change & a mass market will be unable to afford the soaring price of that EV battery.

[Miguelito Loveless]

18. Again, what do you offer as a replacement for EVs?

Seems your solution is to continue using technology guaranteed to make the planet uninhabitable for humans since EVs are not a perfect solution.

Since they still rely on mining, we must not make them, so we keep mining AND drilling AND burning gasoline.

[Blue_true]

19. Are you kidding? The form found in batteries is a serious environmental toxin.

Elements like Lithium can combine with other elements to form a large array of compounds. The Lithium combined with elements in pond and sea water isn’t the same compound as found in batteries, the molecular disassociation enthalpies and consequently disassociation tendencies are different.

[Miguelito Loveless]

21. You do realize that

EV batteries will be recycled, and the lithium will be re-used? Contrary to oil company propaganda, battery packs are not replaced every three years then dumped in a landfill. That would be laptop and phone batteries, which consume the majority of lithium currently produced.

The service life for for an EV battery pack is looking to be between 15-20 years, since after they are no longer suitable for EV use due to capacity loss, they still have a secondary use for grid storage.

[Blue_true]

22. I was responding to your statement that the molecular compound that contains

Lithium in batteries is not a serious environmental risk agent. It is not comparable to natural forms of lithium containing molecules found in nature.

It is good that the EV industry is starting off with a robust recycling process for spent batteries, it needs to be heartily applauded for that bit of foresight.

As an illustration of how unintended humans-made change can devastate the environment, I read an article about the strange deaths of eagles in Arkansas 20 years ago. It took one scientist and scientists that assisted her 20 years to totally figure out why eagles literally became uncoordinated, then died at several human-made lakes in Arkansas. It turned out that the cause was a very complicated series of coincidences, all caused by humans that lead to the creation of a unique chemical compound that created voids in the brains of eagles. If not figured out, the problem could have been devastating to eagle populations where an invasive plant and the element Boron (from some mining activities) met.

[Miguelito Loveless]

23. Then I was unclear

I was speaking about the mining process of lithium as compared to cobalt, which is a human rights and environmental disaster of high order.

My apologies for my lack of clarity.

[Blue_true]

24. Issues like what you were pointing out can be complex.

You have no reason to apologize. I may have seen one aspect of your post and focused on that part while not noticing your broader text.

[Miguelito Loveless]

25. I wanted to be sure that my response came across

as not being snark.

Our solutions to the current dilemma are far from simple. Transitioning to different modes of transportation and energy generation have their own problems, some foreseeable, some not. That said, we must move away from oil, coal and gas, and it must be something less destructive. I just don't see how we can, as some in the thread seem to suggest, just say "Nope, the solution isn't perfect, so we must wait until we have a perfect solution."

[Blue_true]

26. No "solution" is ever perfect, so we should not wait, get a ball rolling and deal

with the outcomes. Those outcomes should be far less problematic than depending on fossil fuels for the long term.

[Miguelito Loveless]

27. My view exactly

I am a renewables and EV advocate, and I swear, there are days when I get it from both sides. Especially disheartening to hear folks on the left repeating American Petroleum Institute talking points.

[Blue_true]

28. Keep pushing forward. That often is the only way to bring about needed change. nt