Biden campaign made decisions on 'probability' of a polling error: Annie Duke

[bucolic_frolic]

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/biden-campaign-made-decisions-probability-100000788.html

Yahoo Finance Video
Biden campaign made decisions on ‘probability’ of a polling error: Annie Duke
December 17, 2020

Former professional poker player Annie Duke joins 'Influencers with Andy Serwer' to break down Joe Biden's successful presidential campaign.
Video Transcript

ANNIE DUKE: So sort of taking this election aside, which I think is still very hot in people's mind, we can think about Hillary Clinton as well. So you know, again, we don't really think about process. We don't really think about what people knew at the time as we're sort of evaluating people's decision making. We really just think about the result.

So we know that Hillary Clinton did not spend a ton of time campaigning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. And we also know that she lost those three states by a combined total of somewhere around 80-ish thousand votes across the three states. So it was a very narrow margin.

But you could see the takes start coming out, you know, oh, you know, this was such a terrible decision. She-- such horrible strategy. Why wasn't she in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan? You know, this was her fault that she lost, because she made such bad decisions.

___________________________
More at the link. And I would add .... I kept asking myself in 2016, WHY is Trump in these God-forsaken places in Pennsylvania? I figured he was motivating GOP organizations with billionaire bucks, which campaigns do with local parties. Someone important should have asked, What is he up to? Does he know something we have overlooked? Why not trail his steps for at least a little while to remain competitive. HRC was defeated, in my view, more by poor strategy and complacency than by anything else. It was her campaign's election to lose, and they found a way.

[abqtommy]

1. Hillary didn't lose. We elected her but the reTHUGS and sPUTIN ratfucked their way

to victory. Why are the reTHUGS still getting away with anything at all? asking 4 a friend

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Trump needed to win PA. That's why he was there.

No different than Romney ending his campaign in Pennsylvania four years prior. Or McCain four years before that. The difference is that Obama hit PA, MI and WI hard from September to November, while Hillary completely abandoned Wisconsin and only focused on PA and MI when it became clear the polls were moving the wrong way.

[Midnight Writer]

3. Kellyanne said as soon as Hillary hugged JayZ on stage in PA Trump won the election.

TeamTrump2016 was counting on a white backlash in swing States, and in my opinion they got it.

They were counting on the same effect in 2020. playing up "defund the police" and "race riots", and I believe were somewhat successful, considering Trump got millions more votes than he did in 2016. However, Democrats had the revulsion factor and the insane pandemic response working for them, and it was enough to get out the vote.

[-misanthroptimist]

4. The 2016 outcome was completely predictable.

I do not know how the pros missed what was happening in the polls. The key was in the 3-way and 4-way polling. In that polling, the Libertarian was pulling 5-8% of the votes (sometimes higher). That's important because a) there was no way that was going to happen on election day; and b) those votes that weren't going to the Libertarian were going to go almost exclusively for Individual 1. By contrast, the Green candidate was getting 1-2% in polling.

By assigning the excess Libertarian polling percentage to Individual 1, it became obvious (to me, at least) that HRC would lose in the Electoral College. Using that method, I missed only in NH (which was razor-thing), and WI (where I ignored my own methodology due to personal incredulity.) I was amazed -and still am- that HRC's team didn't see this. They're pros and I'm just some idiot on the internet...but there we were.

[W_HAMILTON]

5. Read up until the false claim that Hillary didn't spend a lot of time in Pennsylvania.

The convention was held there, for god's sake. One of her last big rallies was in Philly, with the Obamas. Anyone that says she didn't spend adequate time there is misinformed and not worth reading further, in my opinion.