Luck is essential for any successful coronavirus variant, study shows

[dalton99a]

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-03-27/luck-is-essential-for-any-successful-coronavirus-variant-study-shows

Luck is essential for any successful coronavirus variant, study shows
By Melissa Healy
March 27, 2021 6 AM PT

A modeling exercise by researchers at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle suggests that for a genetic variant of SARS-CoV-2 to become a menacing new presence, it’s not enough to be scary and highly transmissible. It also needs a string of lucky breaks to establish itself.

Most notably, it must gain entree to a superspreader event if it is to have a fighting chance of planting its flag in a population. In the brief period during which its carrier is at or close to his peak viral load, the new variant needs to hitch a ride to someplace like a choir practice, a political rally, a poorly ventilated barroom, or a packed indoor arena where people are mingling at close quarters and many are not wearing masks.

Once there, it needs to infect at least a handful of people. Five would be enough for the new variant to live on to compete for more victims. Infecting 20 or more will give it a real chance of becoming predominant in its new community.

Time is of the essence, the new research suggests: Even for a new variant that’s armed with transmission superpowers, that first superspreader event needs to come within a month of its arrival for the variant to stand a chance of becoming established.

....

[JT45242]

1. Reminds me of Wonderful life by stephen Gould

The survivors of the burgess shale were lucky. Everything that left a fossil record was fit ...why do some species survive mass extinctions and others died out.

[abqtommy]

2. It's sad that there's no lack of groups of stupid people around the world to help spread

any and all variants of covid.