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WHITT

(2,868 posts) Sat Apr 3, 2021, 07:21 PM Apr 2021

"We Will Have a Fourth Surge"

"We will have a fourth surge, I'm afraid. How large and how deadly, that depends on us." Dr. Tom Frieden - Former Director of the CDC

ABC World News

So, if a large segment of the American people don't act stupidly...

Oh wait.

3 replies

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Highlight:

"We Will Have a Fourth Surge" (Original Post) WHITT Apr 2021 OP

The surge is already here in Michigan DetroitLegalBeagle Apr 2021 #1

Michigan new cases (7 day moving avg) up 5.3 fold since Feb 22 progree Apr 2021 #3

Once again, governors have failed to protect the public. What 50% more infectious means. Pobeka Apr 2021 #2

DetroitLegalBeagle

(1,923 posts)

1. The surge is already here in Michigan

Reply to WHITT (Original post)

Sat Apr 3, 2021, 07:24 PM

Apr 2021

I think we are now worst in the country in new cases.

progree

(10,907 posts)

3. Michigan new cases (7 day moving avg) up 5.3 fold since Feb 22

Reply to DetroitLegalBeagle (Reply #1)

Sat Apr 3, 2021, 08:57 PM

Apr 2021

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/michigan-covid-cases.html
daily new cases, 7 day moving average
1096 Feb 22 (lowest point since fall)
5858 Apr 2 (latest)
5858/1096 = 5.34

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Top 15 states in daily new cases per 100,000 population, 7 day moving average
#1 Michigan: 59
#2 New Jersey: 51
#3 New York: 42
#4 Connecticut: 35
#5 Rhode Island: 33
#6 Delaware: 33
#7 Massachusetts: 33
#8 Pennsylvania: 31
#9 Minnesota: 31
#10 Vermont: 29
#11 New Hampshire: 28
#12 Florida: 25
#13 Colorado: 25
#14 Alaska: 24
#15 Nebraska: 24

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)

2. Once again, governors have failed to protect the public. What 50% more infectious means.

Reply to WHITT (Original post)

Sat Apr 3, 2021, 07:55 PM

Apr 2021

Assuming everything equal. Back in mid to end of January we were seeing overall cases declining about 5% here in WA.

That was with the original wild variants. So using a R0 of 0.95, and 4 days for an average infection interval, what does 50% mean? It would be an R0 of 1.425 (relative to 0.95).

How do 100 cases spread with an R0 of 0.95 versus 1.425

In 40 days, (10 infection intervals), an R0 of 0.95 would leave us at 60 cases, but the R0 of 1.425 would leave us at 3453 cases

This is the power of compounding working against us. Opening up was the absolute worst thing to do, still is. Even holding the measures in place just another 40 days would have meant massive changes in the active numbers of cases.

Don't think epidemiologists did not inform governors with this basic math.

This is why the UK chose to go into nearly complete lockdown in early January.

50% more infectious plus time means a hell of a lot more cases than just 50%.

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