US military cites rising risk of Chinese move against Taiwan

[left-of-center2012]

The American military is warning that China is probably accelerating its timetable for capturing control of Taiwan, the island democracy that has been the chief source of tension between Washington and Beijing for decades and is widely seen as the most likely trigger for a potentially catastrophic U.S.-China war.

The worry about Taiwan comes as China wields new strength from years of military buildup. It has become more aggressive with Taiwan and more assertive in sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea. Beijing also has become more confrontational with Washington; senior Chinese officials traded sharp and unusually public barbs with Secretary of State Antony Blinken in talks in Alaska last month.

A military move against Taiwan, however, would be a test of U.S. support for the island that Beijing views as a breakaway province. For the Biden administration, it could present the choice of abandoning a friendly, democratic entity or risking what could become an all-out war over a cause that is not on the radar of most Americans. The United States has long pledged to help Taiwan defend itself, but it has deliberately left unclear how far it would go in response to a Chinese attack.

https://apnews.com/article/world-news-beijing-taiwan-china-788c254952dc47de78745b8e2a5c3000

[Irish_Dem]

1. This is going to get very testy at best. Quite nasty at worst.

I think China will get Taiwan eventually.

[taxi]

2. When

from the link:

He [Guoqiang] said that “attempts by outside forces to use Taiwan to seek to restrain China, or the use by Taiwan independence forces to use military means to achieve independence, are all dead ends.”

[Irish_Dem]

4. Exactly.

[Amishman]

3. IMO this is by far the most likely scenario for the start of a third world war

Korea and Japan would likely come to Taiwan's aid, and if that happens I can't see the US staying out of it.

China is becoming a menace and needs to be treated accordingly. Check their ambitions now to prevent things from getting out of hand later. Better a cold war than a hot one.

[Irish_Dem]

5. Maybe more like Viet Nam? And it will have the same ending.

If I lived on Taiwan I would start making plans to leave.

What China wants badly enough, it will get by hook or crook.

[Calculating]

7. Taiwan have supposedly been developing long ranged missiles

Possibly as a form of deterrence, if china invades taiwan might be able to take down three gorges damn with a missile strike.

[Irish_Dem]

8. Taiwan will be obliterated if they touch that bridge.

And Taiwan knows that.

[Calculating]

10. Hence the mutually assured destruction concept

If china were to invade, taiwan would be doomed anyway. Might as well have a way to make the proposition too painful for china to consider.

[Irish_Dem]

12. China will not obliterate Taiwan if it doesn't have to.

China is pragmatic to a fault and won't destroy something it has to then rebuild.

If Taiwan doesn't mess about, China will only go as far as it has to go in order to lay down the law.

There is absolutely nothing Taiwan can do to intimidate China.

China has a clear vision on the South China Sea and territories and will get there in the end.
Even if it takes 100 yrs.

[Calculating]

14. Yeah, but letting china take over is about as bad as obliteration

Ask the people of hk how well it's going letting china control things. Better dead than controlled by communist china. The goal is to make taking taiwan completely unappetizing to china. Obviously china will still win, but was it worth it if it costs them three gorges and their prize is a smoking pile of cinders?

[Irish_Dem]

15. Taiwan knows exactly what the options are. And they would prefer Hong Kong over Hiroshima.

If it comes to that.

But they are fiercely hostile to China so it is going to be a fight one way or the other.

But Asians are pragmatic, and take the long view. So we shall see how this unfolds.

There is nothing Taiwan can do to make itself unappealing to China.
China wants what it wants.

And China will not let its infrastructure get blown to smithereens.

If Taiwan or the US gets near Shanghai or Beijing, it will not go over well at all with China.

If I was a betting person, I would bet that China will outsmart us, with no need for firepower.

China is going to be like the Borg.

[Calculating]

6. Imo the chinese government is threat number one to freedom in theworld

They simply don't believe in freedom as a human right, and it bugs them seeing successful democracies like taiwan nearby. Imo the world cannot let them take taiwan because taiwan has a huge amount of the global semiconductor industry. Can't let china have control over the world's chip supply.

[Irish_Dem]

9. This is why Joe is working on the chip issue right now.

He can probably see the handwriting on the wall about Taiwan.

The American public has no appetite for another Viet Nam.

China is working hard to corner the market on many resources.
They have been doing so quietly for a couple of decades while American re-fights its own Civil War.

China wants Taiwan as they see Taiwan as stolen from them and they want it back.
And they are hell bent on capturing the South China Sea and its resources.

Yes China is the biggest threat to freedom and democracy on the planet.

[Calculating]

11. Appetite has little to do with it

If china is allowed to take taiwan there's no way they would stop there. It will embolden them and we'll be looking at china trying to take all of their neighbors. The world needs to collectively draw a line in the sand on this issue. It will literally set the world back decades if the chip industry in taiwan is destroyed in a conflict.

[Xolodno]

13. meh...sabre rattling...

The military has been saying for awhile that they can't defend Taiwan adequately. Yet we still keep selling Taiwan a shit load of arms. Add to that, China doesn't even have the capability of properly invading. Launch missiles? Bomb Cities? Sure! They can do that. Invade and conquer....not so much.

Last week it was all about Ukraine.

Lets not kid ourselves, the military brass want's more money. Or at the very least, some congressional mandated projects canceled with the funds diverted back to where they want them.