Explosion of #B117 across Europe

[Nevilledog]

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Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing
Explosion of #B117 across Europe.

We epidemiologists have been shouting from the rooftops since December to no avail. Evidence was clear as day. Now we are in middle of another global surge for the 8th week in a row. #COVID19

[dutch777]

1. The ongoing opportunity for the virus to mutate is the real threat from slow vaccination

I am not much for conspiracy theories but I think this risk was deliberately downplayed by the medical community leadership (Fauci, Birx, etc.) and the media. An article the other day noted a growing pocket of the Brazilian variant in the US brought in by a traveler. (Why are we letting people in from Brazil might be a question).

I suppose when you can't get people to understand the simple concepts and benefits of wearing a mask, limiting social gatherings and washing hands, maybe layering on more complex and scary issues like as long as we allow the virus freedom to breed in the giant petri dish that is the population, we seriously risk getting an even more contagious and deadly variant and one that may not be effectively halted by the current vaccines is a bridge to far. But I think if this point is not made soon and harder and we let folks skip getting vaccinated when it is their turn and we don't help less well off countries get their folks vaccinated, we are going to have to close borders and cause other disruptions to contain deadlier mutations.

[progree]

2. I notice it ends at March 22. Some things have changed since then

For one, the U.K. has brought its daily new case rate down to well below the best U.S. state --

World: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

Hover mouse over any country on the map to see the daily new cases per 100k (7dma)
(7dma = 7 day moving average)

The U.K. is at 4.2 daily new cases per 100,000 (7dma) compared to U.S. 20 daily new cases per 100K for example. They have the lowest rate in Europe. And lower than any state in the U.S.

U.S.: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html


U.K. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/united-kingdom-coronavirus-cases.html
and the UK's daily new cases have been dropping sharply. Down 51% in the last 14 days (7 day moving average as of April 8 compared to 7 day moving average as of March 25)

Their 7 day moving average is down 95% from their peak on January 10.

They have been in severe lockdown to bring it back to this level.

Unfortunately most of the rest of Europe is pretty bad or awful, e.g.
Daily new cases per 100k, 7 day moving average

Sweden: 68 and trending up
France: 42 but trending down
Netherlands: 41 but trending slightly down
U.S. (for comparison): 20 and slowly trending up
Germany: 18 and trending flat to down
Poland: 53 but trending down
Eastern Europe - several other hard-hit countries

South America is a real mess
Brazil: 32 and trending a bit down
Uruguay: 109 (Wow!) and strongly rising
Argentina: 40 and strongly rising

[progree]

3. The world overall is up 77% since the low point of Feb 20 and nearing its all time Jan 11 peak

The world's Daily new cases, 7 day moving average
739,476   Jan 11 (all time peak)
359,766   Feb 20 (lowest point since the above peak)
636,704   April 9 (latest)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html