General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDem pollsters acknowledge 'major errors' in 2020 polling
Five of the biggest Democratic firms have signed onto a joint statement that seeks to explain what went wrong in last years election.
By STEVEN SHEPARD
04/13/2021 04:31 AM EDT
A group of top Democratic Party pollsters are set to release a public statement Tuesday acknowledging major errors in their 2020 polling errors that left party officials stunned by election results that failed to come close to expectations in November.
In an unusual move, five of the partys biggest polling firms have spent the past few months working together to explore what went wrong last year and how it can be fixed. Its part of an effort to understand why despite data showing Joe Biden well ahead of former President Donald Trump, and Democrats poised to increase their House majority the party won the presidency, the Senate and House by extremely narrow margins.
Twenty-twenty was an Oh, s---' moment for all of us, said one pollster involved in the effort, who was granted anonymity to discuss the process candidly. And I think that we all kinda quickly came to the point that we need to set our egos aside. We need to get this right."
Thats about where the answers end. The collaborations first public statement acknowledges that their industry saw major errors and failed to live up to our own expectations. But the memo also underscores the limits of the polling autopsy, noting that no consensus on a solution has emerged.
snip
more at link
Important information and some lessons learned.
JanMichael
(24,875 posts)MichMan
(11,870 posts)Takket
(21,529 posts)Cunningham led almost every poll.......
https://electionprojection.com/north-carolina-senate-election.php
So did Gideon
https://electionprojection.com/maine-senate-election.php
i also don't know how the polling firms account for rethugs lying to pollsters but i think that's a major source of the errors.
the article highlights the biggest challenge of this... accounting for how drumpf's presence poisoned the well so to speak, and how to account for him going forward if he does NOT run in 2024.
you can count me among the naive people that thought we had a chance in these races. i thought we would lose texas but it would be VERY close. it wasn't.
Celerity
(43,135 posts)by Collins campaign. Manchin endorsing Collins certainly did not help, it allowed her to falsely claim herself as this great pragmatic slightly conservative bi-partisan moderate Maine Senator, when she is just a RW stooge in 98% of the big votes. Racism personally hurt Gideon too (as she is half east Indian and half Armenian).
Klaralven
(7,510 posts)People get a lot of spam calls these days, and many do not answer if they don't recognize the name or number.
Plus, how do you know at the outset whether it is a legit pollster or a push poll? Or a call that asks a few questions and then asks for a donation?
They probably are now making 20 calls to get one survey completed.