General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNo, we're not going to have a civil war. Not one that lasts more than a day.
When the Southern states seceded from the Union, they were still states -- organized, functioning political entities with taxing authority, in a position to form and fund a real army, with real professional officers and hundreds of thousands of enlisted men -- an army capable of putting up a credible fight against the United States Army for four years.
But the present political divide in America is not between states, it is within states -- between traditionalist rural areas and cosmopolitan urban areas. You can't make a civil war out of that, only a culture war in the suburbs and exurbs. If every private militia club in the United States were to gather in one place and join forces under a unified command, they would not last 15 minutes against any state's National Guard. Considering how much military equipment (and, presumably, training) local police departments have been acquiring in the past decade, they probably could not even put up a fight against the local police or sheriff's department.
So, what's all this talk of civil war? What does anybody think can actually happen, that would amount to one?
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,902 posts)I am myself rather weary of the "OMG! There's going to be a Civil War" any day now.
People of various stripes have been predicting this for decades. Heck, if I recall correctly, Charles Manson was certain the murders he orchestrated would start a race war.
politruk
(88 posts)The race war was to wipe out all whites except Manson's Family, who would hide out in Death Valley. Then the blacks would find themselves incapable of self-government, and fall in behind Manson when he emerged.
In other words, Manson assumed the blacks were (1) capable of winning a genocidal race war against the much more numerous and better-organized whites, but also (2) so inferior, and so conscious of their inferiority, that they would naturally follow a white leader.
Well, he was crazy, whaddaya want.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,902 posts)January 6 was NOT a Civil War. Although I suppose a Six Hour War is possible, sort of like the Six Days War.
But when people are talking about another Civil War, it's pretty clear they are picturing something more or less like the one a century and a half ago. And that's simply not going to happen.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... of 1/6 didn't happen and the "thank you" in the response.
I'm thinking 1/6 is the start of the civil war, not just a one off thing ...
If its not the start of the civil war what should it be?
thx in advance
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,902 posts)being remotely the same as intimating the bad stuff of 1/6 didn't happen. We can just leave it as I don't think the events of that day were the start of a current civil war and you apparently do.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)Ocelot II
(115,875 posts)from the '60s to the '90s. Which would also suck.
Tree Lady
(11,499 posts)We have some but if a poll was taken I am sure more republicans own guns.
Hekate
(90,841 posts)It appears to be back, too.
Also, weve got plenty of that over here to go around.
bluecollar2
(3,622 posts)I lived in London and various other locations between 1968 and 1975...
Grandparents retired in County Roscommon. Other relatives all over the Isles...
Some RAF.. Some Royal Army...
It wasn't pretty.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)just be the tip.
TheRealNorth
(9,500 posts)This is the flaw in the OP's argument. They are presuming that that Guard and Police will follow orders. They are also presuming that there won't be governors and other politicians that the police/guard report to that won't join the insurrection.
brush
(53,908 posts)There will be no civil war. There might be OKC incidents here and there...guerilla warfare-type incidents with militia in their pick-up trucks, but massed forces against the Nat'l Guard?
Nah. Not gonna happen. However many wingers are on police forces, they are nowhere near the majority.
Those overweight, middle aged guys in camo carrying AR-15s will be exhausted after a week in the field and will wish to hell they had stayed in basement continuing to imagine "watering the tree of liberty" with blood, as long as it isn't theirs'.
TheRealNorth
(9,500 posts)I think its very likely that the National Guard in and significant portions of the police in that state will follow suit.
Especially if the governor has ensured that loyalists and sycophants are in key positions.
brush
(53,908 posts)a million to one, two million? Govenors are not crazy. They are not up for treason. And that would be actual treason, not sedition or an insurrection like Jan. 6.
The punishment for treason is hanging, btw. Grant let Lee off easy.
TheRealNorth
(9,500 posts)While its more likely that Republicans will opt to destroying Democratic institutions and free and fair elections (Plan A), if they fail that way, we must be vigilant against Plan B. They were almost successful on 1/6.
brush
(53,908 posts)and it failed. IMO even the most ridiculous republican governors, the ones in Florida, Texas, Georgia, Arizona, are not crazy enough to back a revolt against the federal government.
TheRealNorth
(9,500 posts)Driven by social media, Faux, OAN, etc. I am seeing it in my extended family.
brush
(53,908 posts)backing a revolt of their state against the federal government, not some individual wingers foolishly imagining taking up arms against the government.
TheRealNorth
(9,500 posts)The governors will do what their base wants.
If the base is ready for the fight, they will revolt if they think they can win. They may think they can win if they know they have people on the inside of the security forces that can assure their support.
This is not about some isolated group of RW wackos, this is about a coordinated effort by multiple states to overthrow the federal government. It is arrogance to suggest that it can't happen here.
brush
(53,908 posts)And why are you on this site if those are your beliefs?
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... part of slowing down the response to the 1/6 terrorist attack !!
This is 100% of what you're talking about happening on 1/6
This flag officer still is part of the US military, screw that
Treefrog
(4,170 posts)dameatball
(7,400 posts)Infrastructure, such as water sources, utilities, communications, etc, can't all be secure 24/7 all over the country. These jackasses will eventually decide that going to jail over targeting highly secure locations is not as much fun as they thought.
CrackityJones75
(2,403 posts)What do you think these shooting massacres are? Sure some of them are incels but many of them are people wanting to punish liberal ideology.
politruk
(88 posts)They happen all the time. Whatever their motivation, they would have to be a lot better coordinated to constitute a war.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... the number of massacres in America is not normal what so ever
brush
(53,908 posts)Until that's remedied, it will continue. Nut jobs shooting up grocery stores, massage parlors and packaging facilities do not constitute any coordinated tactic or organized war.
They are what they are, products of a culture awash with guns accessible to crazied one-offers with a grievance who want to take others with them before they go down.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... or low level civil wars or insurgencies etc it is what the definition these things say they are.
We can go through the process of renaming everything but when we look at things in their definition shit is going down.
This is like what happened BEFORE 1/6 when Trump started firing defense personal, there should've been hollering and screaming then ... no people want to say those things are "normal"
No, its time to start hollering and screaming even when the cattle our out of the barnyard
1/6 changed everything for me, we're not the same country any longer seeing there's a good portion of the people who don't believe in what the bill of rights says it wants for Americans.
brush
(53,908 posts)to get it together.
Hogwash.
It's no organized, low-level civil war. It's what we see several times a week. Some deranged, lone gunman with a perceived grievance gets a hold of an assault rifle and starts blasting away at the place he targets.
These shootings are not a part of a whole. They're just another mass shooting in America where there have been 47 already this year, and that doesn't included the hundreds of shootings where there were three or less people killed (like the two three-person shootings yesterday). What they are are separate, unrelated incidents that happen and will continue to happen in a nation flooded with easily accessible guns and republicans unwilling to pass sensible gun laws.
It's no war.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... military and the president of the united states like 1/6 did.
Your OP started out with "No, we're not going to have a civil war ..." which didn't include massacre shootings by themselves like Columbine (if that was the meaning of the reference) ... maybe not if that was the only factor, its not.
Also
You said "You can't make a civil war out of that, only a culture war in the suburbs and exurbs... " in your OP.
This is text book false, Spain and Syria started out very similar to this historically including Rwanda
brush
(53,908 posts)Last edited Mon Apr 19, 2021, 05:56 PM - Edit history (1)
day-trip outting/insurrgency like many of the other posters on this thread are?
Ok, fair enough. I'm not either. Neither are part of a low-level civil war. Jan. 6 was a field trip/vacation day off from work for magats answering a fool, defeated president's call to help keep him in power. It failed. I don't care if some Proud Boys in orange caps/vest, or Oath Keepers in camo were there keeping in touch with each other by cell phone, it failed and they all went home after celebrating over a good meal and foolishly published selfies of themselves online committing crimes.
Como on. Those were no civil warriors. They were cosplay actors pretending. Where's the follow up attack? Reservoirs, food supply lines, power plants are unguarded for the most partsoft targets, easy pickings. Any serious, organized force would've already done that. And who is their leader now that trump has washed his hands of them except grifting them for more donation money online than they intended.
He's lawyered up and trying to save his ass from going to jail when he's not on the golf course.There's no one else who can get those clowns to come another "mass" cosplay outting.
We're going too far with this. Those out-of-shape, weekend warriors would be exhausted after a week in the field against state troopers, not to mention the Nat'l guard with tanks and helicopers and actual intelligence monitoring them knowing who they are and where they live already.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... years or something like a "Field Trip"?!
I'm honestly asking, I know enough about US history to know 1/6 has never happened where we've had multiple 9/11's for instance.
brush
(53,908 posts)vacation day from work to be there. It was a day-trip outting for them and they got caught up in the fever from trump and Mo Brooks and Ghouliani and Jr. exhorting them at the rally to march on the Capitol.
Most have learned to regret it. especially the ones who've been apprehended. The Proud Boys and Oath Keepers certainly have not followed up with their promises to come back, or any other follow-up action for that matter. Looks like they've shot their load already, even with all the soft targets out there.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... year occurrence or 150 year or 260 years the country has been in existence.
Why wouldn't 1/6 be the START of something bad?
brush
(53,908 posts)uponit7771
(90,364 posts).. civil wars are varied and wide in deliberation.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/02/capitol-riot-january-6-trauma-terror-attack.html
Sumpter was 2 months after the south succeeded
1/6 was different, that's a fact not in dispute
Treefrog
(4,170 posts)CrackityJones75
(2,403 posts)We are also in a psychological and technical war with a foreign country who is working to foment said civil war.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)CrackityJones75
(2,403 posts)I believe many of them are happening because of the propaganda that is beingnpushed by a political party and its mouthpiece.
CrackityJones75
(2,403 posts)Also did you notice that those same people who were subjected to that propaganda attacked our capital and tried to stop a free and fair democratic election?
There was an insurgency and political leaders of a political ideology had directed it through messaging. We are and have been in a civil war for some time now.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... officers or some of them quit right before 1/6.
I've seen it before, people don't think it can happen here ... IT CAN
We're damn near text book, " the troubles" and heading towards Spain circa 1930
CrackityJones75
(2,403 posts)Hekate
(90,841 posts)Also, have you been actually following the information about the 1-6 Insurrection? It was pretty damn well co-ordinated. It also had all the earmarks of being a dress-rehearsal, equivalent to the 1923 Beer Hall Putsch of the Weimar Republic.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... "spontaneous" among the people who are the white supremacist terrorist.
sarisataka
(18,786 posts)Why didn't it succeed? That wasn't the day for a dress rehearsal, it was the big game. Trump is out, their opportunity is gone. It is exponentially harder to put someone in to power than to keep the person who is already there.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)sarisataka
(18,786 posts)In that it was an absolute failure.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)Kaleva
(36,355 posts)People went along with their normal routines. That isn't the behavior of folks who are "terrorized".
One can tell a lot about how a person feels about an event by observing what they do in response to it. The greater the event poses a threat to that person, the greater and more vigorous the response the person makes. Watching an event on tv and posting about it isn't much of a response.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... sympathizers in congress and on FAUX News.
You're 100% wrong on that one, text book terrorism along with the PTSD from it including members of congress
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/02/capitol-riot-january-6-trauma-terror-attack.html
Kaleva
(36,355 posts)Have they acquired weapons?
Are they actively training with these weapons?
Have they joined up with other like minded citizens to form a defensive unit?
Have they stockpiled food and other necessities?
Have they fortified their residence?
Did they flee the country?
When War of the Worlds was first aired back in the 1930's via radio, some listeners thought it was real and were terrified.
"The radio play was extremely realistic, with Welles employing sophisticated sound effects and his actors doing an excellent job portraying terrified announcers and other characters. An announcer reported that widespread panic had broken out in the vicinity of the landing sites, with thousands desperately trying to flee."
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/welles-scares-nation
The people responded vigorously to the threat by trying to flee. An act that showed they were truly terrified.
I'd be interested in hearing from you the actions of the people you know who you say were terrified.
Your link is interesting and I may read it in detail later but article is about people directly involved in the riot which is not the same thing as the nation as a whole.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... Wells story was fake 1/6 was not.
1/6 was different in history of US no?
let see if we can agree on that
Kaleva
(36,355 posts)I won't argue with you about that as your evidence is clear.
What we disagree on is if the nation as a whole was terrified by the events of 1/6 and we'll probably never agree on that but that's okay.
I'm not here to convince you and others I am correct. I come here to learn by engaging in these discussions. The article you posted before will make for interesting reading later.
Take care and have a nice evening!
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... is one of the reason why I believe that 1/6 was a start and not the conclusion.
Its text book a START seeing what we can read about in the past.
Kaleva
(36,355 posts)" They terrorized the damn country, they 100% succeeded at that"
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... There's already a text book insurgency forming supported by MAGA Cultist in congress who aren't being put out yet so I don't see why more 1/6 terrorist attacks wont be called a civil war.
sarisataka
(18,786 posts)And as we have seen, asymmetric wars can be pesky things. With no central target to go after it is necessary to break the will of the opponents or turn the overwhelming majority against them.
That said, my crystal ball isn't predicting any such war coming soon.
Journeyman
(15,041 posts)uponit7771
(90,364 posts)DetroitLegalBeagle
(1,927 posts)There would be no set front lines or set battlefields. Very little unit vs unit fighting. Sure, no militia would stand a chance against a regular army unit or national guard unit in a one on one fight. But that's not how things would be fought. It would be an insurgency. Ambushes, assassinations, and bombings would be the rule. Anywhere could be a battlefield. The militias might not be able to knock out a tank, or take down that drone, but they can surely hunt down and kill that tank crew or drone pilots families. And depending on how long such an insurgency lasts, that's not even a guarantee. Heavier weapons would eventually make their way into the insurgents hands, either smuggled in from outside powers wishing to add to the chaos, or stolen or given to them from defectors within Federal forces. Add in our rather undefended and faulty electrical grid and we could have real problems. It wouldn't be too difficult for determined individuals to knock out power to a city.
Voltaire2
(13,200 posts)0rganism
(23,972 posts)here are the forces you list to protect us from right-wing insurrectionist death squad militias:
state National Guard
local police department
local sheriff's department
what happens if those organizations are aligned with the insurrectionists? saturated with fascists and bloodthirsty self-styled "patriots"? that is the problem, and apparently it's a real documented problem that we ignore at our peril.
2naSalit
(86,817 posts)We just don't want to call it that yet.
Kaleva
(36,355 posts)2naSalit
(86,817 posts)We already have a constabulary that perceives the public as the enemy and they act upon that belief with impunity, half the Congress is not performing its duties in good faith and are actively working to overthrow the government from within and a rag tag military of trained ne'er do wells and criminals to attack us along with other tactics of warfare...
So what is it other than a civil war?
It sure looks like one to me from over here in the cheap seats.
Voltaire2
(13,200 posts)I guess it is just too much.
2naSalit
(86,817 posts)I speculated, about thirteen months ago, that there would be a massive shift in the entire species regarding philosophy, psychology, and socially, on many levels by the time the whole covid event is under control. This is happening to our entire species all at once, it will have massive impact and really shake up how the human world functions going forward. I transplanted Stephen Jay Gould's Punctuated Equilibrium theory to this event because of the major shift we are experiencing in real time. I wonder how our species manages to survive the next fifty years.
I need more coffee.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)Blue 808
(1,542 posts)THEY have already declared war on We the People, and it's surreal to me that many on our side do not see it..
SYFROYH
(34,185 posts)A la Tim McVeigh or radicalized loners like Dylann Roof.
2naSalit
(86,817 posts)former9thward
(32,085 posts)"It will be over by Christmas" and all of that. This is not 1861 and a modern civil war in an advanced state would not look like the 1861 version either. Well placed bombs and attacks could easily knock out most electricity to cities. They could easily stop truck traffic to cities starving them of food and supplies. But go ahead and whistle past the graveyard.
Kaleva
(36,355 posts)Not a ingle one. An indication of how little they are willing to sacrifice in fighting for their cause.
Crunchy Frog
(26,659 posts)That's all I'm going to say.
Kaleva
(36,355 posts)Another fact is that many of them are out of touch with the real world and thus cannot formulate a strategy that has any chance of success because that strategy would be based on falsehoods.
brush
(53,908 posts)as some are imagining. We saw many of them on Jan. 6 having a day trip field day. Then they went to their motels, celebrated over a meal and went home the next day to unload their exploits online.
Seriously?
They had a great day until the FBI knocked on their door.
Kaleva
(36,355 posts)Initech
(100,107 posts)Why? They have jobs and lives and families like we do. A civil war would end all of that. Even their martial law fantasies would end all of that. They're just keyboard warriors, nothing more.
Kaleva
(36,355 posts)Initech
(100,107 posts)Kaleva
(36,355 posts)They quickly forgot the vow to fight to the death even though they continue to say we stole the election.
Hekate
(90,841 posts)They simply exist to destroy, kill, and reduce to rubble.
And they are here already.
Kaleva
(36,355 posts)They are going to have to do a lot in order to get even just media attention.
As far as I know, nobody here armed up on the 6th of January in response to the riot.
politruk
(88 posts)They're an organization of self-ID'd leftist rednecks, and they're armed.
I suspect/hope/fear we'll be hearing more about them in the future.
brooklynite
(94,751 posts)A silly broad-brush stereotype.
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)It wouldn't be regular people lining up against the military and national guard. National guard and military is also made up of basically the same people.
It would be factions of the national guard against other factions. Parts of the military against other parts of the military. Civilians groups against other civilians groups. Any every other combination.
It would be a nightmare. Millions would die and it would take a century to recover.
politruk
(88 posts)in which the U.S. Armed Forces, including the NG, are so politically divided as to subvert discipline and the chain of command. To use state troops in a civil war requires GENERALS sign on for it, and ours won't.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... building and happens to be the brother of an admitted traitor to the country.
No, I think people are whistling past the grave yard on 1/6.
1/6 was different and never has happened in US history
kairos12
(12,877 posts)All you need to see is that atrocity of a Confederate Flag being displayed in the Halls of Congress.
Traitors they all are.
The entire Reich Wing was a Trojan horse that culminated with Chump. Inside were Q crazies, anti-vaxers, anti-science, racist, religious zealots, and My Pillow warriors.
uponit7771
(90,364 posts)... that the 1/6 assholes are not finished.
Hell, look at the
fescuerescue
(4,448 posts)That's why I don't think a civil war is a current danger.
But if things decline much much below where we are. Then the circumstances will be vastly different.
Yavin4
(35,446 posts)One drone strike operated remotely would do it. The drone operators would have time for a long lunch.
ansible
(1,718 posts)I hope those of you who keep pushing for it realize this.
Mr.Bill
(24,331 posts)...to pry their guns from their cold dead fingers.
Voltaire2
(13,200 posts)politruk
(88 posts)about 5% or less of Americans own about half of all guns in private hands . . . They don't seem to realize that nobody can effectively use more than one gun at a time.
raptor_rider
(1,014 posts)Itd be a Revolutionary one 💜 oooooohhhh I cant wait.
Voltaire2
(13,200 posts)(although at this point 'armed forces' includes the police.)
I suggest that the events of Jan 6 demonstrate that your assumption is unwarranted.
Also as others have noted, a classic territorial civil war, as we had here in 1861-5, is not the model of modern civil wars. The model is far worse, with armed groups spread out across the country attacking each other not in large organized military formations, but instead opportunistically in small groups, primarily against soft civilian targets. Think Rwanda. Yugoslavia or Syria, not Blue vs Grey.
Amishman
(5,559 posts)Or at least itself be fiercely divided.
National Guard in particular would be problematic as they are 'locals' for the most part. Red states would have an especially high concentration of right-wingers in their national guard
politruk
(88 posts)that there was a time in America, within the memory of many now living, when it looked like we would have a civil war and the LEFT would start it, despite most (certainly not all) leftists of the time being avowed pacifists.
BGBD
(3,282 posts)It would take much fewer people than you think to wage sustained asymmetric warfare on the population of major US cities. I have outlined it on here before and I'll do it again later when I'm not typing from a phone.
TheRealNorth
(9,500 posts)All it would take is for the deplorables to block food and energy from getting to the cities. And they know that.
msfiddlestix
(7,286 posts)since !861 and hasn't actually ended, despite the Surrender at Appomattox Agreement between Grant and Lee.
It has been simmering with cyclical eruptions of violence on small and large scale ever since.
It's simply a horrible and painful fact, with no end in sight.
WarGamer
(12,485 posts)A Civil War in 21st Century terms, in the US would mean States flat out refusing to follow Federal law and/or ignoring Constitutional law.