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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPolls suggest House Democrats will buck midterm curse and add to their ranks
Conventional wisdom in Washington is that the party in control of the White House usually loses any number of congressional seats in the midterms. In 1994, President Bill Clinton saw his House majority collapse with the Democrats losing 54 seats and the speaker's gavel, something that had held true since the Truman Administration. After wresting control back from the GOP in 2006 during the final two years of the George W. Bush Administration, Democrats faced a similar blood bath during the 2010 midterms losing 63 seats in what President Barack Obama aptly described as a "shellacking."
With one of the slimmest majorities for any new president in modern history, President Joe Biden is already banking on the popularity of his legislation and executive actions to buoy Democratic prospects heading into the elections. Polling from last month following the passage of the American Rescue Plan indicated that 63 percent of Americans, including 58 percent of independents, supported the $1.9 trillion package passed with just Democratic votes. Similarly, according to a new poll out from The New York Times, Biden's new infrastructure proposal, the American Jobs Act, "garners support from two in three Americans, and from seven in ten independent voters." Interestingly enough, the plan has the support of more than 30 percent of registered Republican voters according to the same poll.
In addition to the broad level of support behind the Biden administration's two landmark pieces of legislation, new polling from Morning Consult from earlier in the month demonstrates the total dominance of Democrats over Republicans on the most critical issues facing the American people. During the 2018 midterms, healthcare was the leading issue that drove voters to the polls - and that was before an international pandemic ravaged our country. According to data from that Morning Consult poll, Democrats in Congress hold a +25 percent advantage over their GOP colleagues when voters are asked who they trust more to handle COVID-19 - 51 percent to 26 percent. Similarly, Democrats hold a +19 percent advantage when it comes to healthcare writ-large and a +20 percent advantage when it comes to protecting Social Security and Medicare. Even more damning for Congressional Republicans is the fact that voters give House Democrats a five percent advantage on who they trust on issues of the economy, an issue that was squarely in the Republican column in recent elections, including 2020.
Team Blue's advantage when it comes to key political issues isn't the only concern for the House GOP Caucus. As Morning Consult's Eli Yokley notes, "Democrats are beginning the budding 2022 election cycle with an enthusiasm advantage over Republicans as President Joe Biden and his party work to buck the traditional midterm curse of losing ground in Congress. At this early stage, Democratic voters, at 81 percent, are 9 percentage points more likely than Republican voters, at 72 percent, to say they're at least "somewhat" enthusiastic about voting in the 2022 midterms, according to a new Morning Consult/Politico poll."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/polls-suggest-house-democrats-will-buck-midterm-curse-and-add-to-their-ranks/ar-BB1fOLl0
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)It depresses their turnout.
Why vote if its just gonna be stolen? Think their small wit base.
They are not on the right side of issues and without trump on the ballot I expect the Dems to win bigly.
Really.
Me.
(35,454 posts)wnylib
(21,335 posts)make sure that people do get out to vote. That is one reason why the party in power loses Congressional seats. Too often people do not turn out for midterms, unless they are from the party not in power and feel motivated by that.
Just having the numbers is no guarantee. That is especially true now with the BS being pulled by the GQP at the state level. I expect to see some court challenges in 2022.
11 Bravo
(23,926 posts)gratuitous
(82,849 posts)So, endorsing and passing popular legislation that benefits voters will get them to vote for you? Huh. I thought the path to majority status was to suppress voting, frighten people, and knuckle the vulnerable.
Johnny2X2X
(18,969 posts)If Dems get a couple more big popular bills through and Biden continues to run things so well, Dems will gain in 2022.
Trump not being on the ballot is a huge problem for the GQP, they saw it in 2018, 2020, and early 2021.
These Trump voters don't care about other candidates.
Dems will almost certainly gain a couple seats in the Senate, if they can also hold the House, maybe Republicans will finally be finished with trump.
Me.
(35,454 posts)Great Minds
calimary
(81,109 posts)I hope we get more big numbers turning out to vote next year.
Turn out for this, Dems! Show up and be counted! Let your voices be heard - en masse and in full!
We have the numbers ANYWAY. Its only a matter of getting those numbers to VOTE!
Weve GOT THIS! And ALL we have to do is JUST SHOW UP!!!
Omnipresent
(5,678 posts)Every two years (if there isnt a special election in between) I turn out to vote a solid Democratic ticket.
We need to take back some of those seats, that really never belonged to republicans, and keep them!
Carlitos Brigante
(26,494 posts)like they did with Sept. 11th and the ACA.
PortTack
(32,705 posts)Reinforcement of those feelings:
DNC flush with cash..18.4 mil donated in the last quarter
DNC Announces a 50 sate strategy for the midterms....boots on the ground..door to door
Also they have announced a target list of the 22 most vulnerable qgop congress critters
I doubt that boebert will be able to hold on, even the qgop there was asking to have her expelled from congress
Margarine will more than likely hold on..but please if you can give to her challenger Marcus Flowers. These ppl need to be challenged no matter how slim their chances. It takes guts to put yourself out there, especially in a redneck district like that...lets support his efforts.
WarGamer
(12,354 posts)Remember gerrymandering? And the loss of Seats from blue states?
Who writes these articles? smdh...
Kingofalldems
(38,422 posts)about how we will lose the House.
Kick and rec.
tiredtoo
(2,949 posts)certainot
(9,090 posts)all the radio blowhards are going to start wandering off in different ways. and without limbaugh to prioritize and start every day's spin their timing will be off. the dittoheads will still be calling in to complain if they wander off the limbaugh alternate realities but those dittoheads no longer have a single leader. they're going to scatter. whoever the replacement is in that familiar timeslot he will not measure up to their dear departed leader. the chorus leader is gone. the army of GOP radio blowhards will no longer be on the same page when they excuse the GOP and their hypocritical politicians and attack democrats.
DetroitLegalBeagle
(1,914 posts)And having having a majority in the Senate? They are predicting this a year and half out from the election, which is a political eternity, and in a country whose voters are known for their short memories. I'm skeptical. Everyone needs to work hard and not let up.
Demovictory9
(32,421 posts)SYFROYH
(34,162 posts)LiberalFighter
(50,783 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,044 posts)For decades we entered many elections simply perplexed and worried.
Mr.Bill
(24,238 posts)republicans will be running away from Trump.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)The GOP is a white nationalist anti-democratic threat to America.
tclambert
(11,084 posts)Tommymac
(7,263 posts)This is the ONLY way we Dems are going to prevail.
We need to be out there NOW spreading the word, spreading GOOD News, spreading HOPE.
President Joe is giving us the tools.
Damn it, let's all get our feet on the ground and Use them!!!!
Cha
(296,825 posts)Dems are doing an Excellent job.. TY Dems!
And, of course, we'll be ever vigilant
DallasNE
(7,402 posts)Going all of the way back to Eisenhower every Republican President has presided over at least 1 recession. During that same timeframe only Jimmy Carter presided over a recession and that was deliberate to combat the inflation he inherited from WIN buttons Ford. It is really no contest.
BobTheSubgenius
(11,559 posts)That particular part of the cycle is often considered a referendum on the President, or an admonishment or warning. So far, at least, President Biden's performance has been nothing short of spectacular and little short of perfect.
The R side of the House, OTOH, has stood around with their thumbs up their hoops...then up that of the Rep to their left...then that of the one to the right....then back to their own. In short, completely f'ing useless. More useless than ever, but now, the optics are astonishing.
The ONLY good thing I can say about them is that they appear to have been STUNNED into silence and inaction, and have no idea how do deal with a triple threat. Not only does he know what he's doing, but he has a clear vision and the means to articulate it. Now, back in the dim past (before 2016) they faced a President with similar attributes, but this one has the tragic (from their POV) attribute of being as white as hell.
This skin tone does not galvanize them into action - to the point of fervor - and they have to find actual talking points and develop arguments without their Rage Stimulus. They can't even fire up the rabid base. They are all but paralyzed. So, the "good thing" I mentioned? Their torpor is not making the country worse. For a change.
When a huge chunk of your heavy lifting in the PR arena is being done by an imbecile like Mike Lindell, you are f'ed.