Le Pen on Defensive as Retired French Generals Talk of Revolt

[Klaralven]

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen went into damage control mode on Tuesday, after lending support to a group of soldiers and retired generals who penned an open letter to President Emmanuel Macron warning of a risk of “civil war” and the looming disintegration of the country.

In an interview on FranceInfo Tuesday, Le Pen denied the officers had effectively threatened a coup d’etat, before reeling off what she called a number of threats to the Republic, including rising crime in the suburbs.

“We ask you to apply the law, that’s what they are saying,” Le Pen said.

The controversial column was published last week by Valeurs Actuelles, a far-right weekly that has been moving from the fringes toward the mainstream ever since 2019, when Macron gave it an interview to discuss Islam and immigration. The authors called out the “decay” of France “with Islamism and hordes in the suburbs” and “a kind of anti-racism.” If the situation worsens, they warned, there could be an “intervention from our active comrades.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-27/le-pen-on-defensive-as-retired-french-generals-talk-of-revolt

Le Pen, the 52-year-old leader of the rightwing Rassemblement National, has made big strides in attracting younger voters. According to recent polls, including by Ipsos, some 30 per cent of voters aged between 25 and 34 are ready to vote for her. That is up from 23 per cent in 2017. 

For Macron, 43, the picture is murkier. When he defeated Le Pen in 2017 he picked up 29 per cent of this chunk of the electorate. Today only 20 per cent of those voters said they would back the president. 

https://www.ft.com/content/94eab3dd-1edb-4fc6-bc65-43ba145edc09

[DFW]

1. Le Pen's danger is that she spells out what she is against

A politician in an election should be able to articulate at least one of two positions--what they are for and/or what they are against. For the right, this is easy--they are against everything. For the left, it is more complicated.

The German Social Democrats got crushed in the last federal election because they were headed by a drunken bureaucrat whose most imaginative election campaign slogan was "mehr Gerechtigkeit," or "more justice." They then went on to spell out that what they meant was that taxes in Germany had to go higher still, so as to pay for more bureaucrats like him. This was a guy whose only jobs he ever had been paid for by other people's taxes. He had never done a day of productive work in his life. Fair enough, but in a country like Germany, with a pretty strong work ethic and taxes that are already high, that went over like a lead balloon.

Macron had a better slogan with his "en marche" movement, but "en marche" is a rough translation of "let's get going," and he was never really able to articulate where he wanted France to go. After the disaster of the Hollande (Parti Socialiste) presidency that preceded him, the French were ready to get going, but so far, he hasn't really gone anywhere. This doesn't make him any worse than some of his predecessors, but it doesn't distinguish him either. His image is strong--young, looks good, speaks impeccable English, but he hasn't figured out how to navigate France's fractured political minefield. Time is running out, and he needs to find a positive reason for people to vote for him. If he doesn't, Le Pen knows all the buttons to push. They're the same ones right wing extremists always push An Islamic immigrant from Tunisia just knifed a French policewoman to death (happened a few days ago), you need us to protect our French society from such incidents ever happening again! Plus, Le Pen followed her father's career since she was a girl. She knows the mistakes he made, and is smart enough to try to avoid them.

The French left is scattered across the political map (PFJ vs. JPF, but to the 12th power), and the far right is unified behind Le Pen. The danger of her being France's next president is terrifyingly real.

[Klaralven]

2. How the far-right has shifted France's political center of gravity

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2021/0414/How-the-far-right-has-shifted-France-s-political-center-of-gravity

It appears that Macron is moving to the right, especially on social issues. That does indicate that he can do so because the left is in disarray. But that makes the distinction between globalism and nationalism that much sharper.