Can Democrats Avoid a Wipeout in 2022?

[Celerity]

Biden’s plan: Go big or go home.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/04/biden-address-can-democrats-avoid-2022-wipeout/618746/



The good news for Democrats who watched Joe Biden unveil a historically ambitious agenda last night is that newly elected presidents have almost always passed some version of their core economic plan—particularly when their party controls both congressional chambers, as Biden’s does now. The bad news: Voters have almost always punished the president’s party in the next midterm election anyway. The last two times Democrats had unified control—with Bill Clinton in 1993–94 and Barack Obama in 2009–10—they endured especially resounding repudiations in the midterms, which cost Clinton his majority in both chambers and Obama the loss of the House. The scale of the agenda Biden laid out last night underscores Democrats’ conviction that their best chance to avoid that fate again in 2022 is to go big with their proposals. Counting the coronavirus stimulus plan approved earlier this year, Biden has now proposed more than $5 trillion in new spending initiatives over the next decade—far more than Clinton or Obama ever offered—to be partially paid for by tax increases on corporations and affluent families.

On cultural and social issues, Democrats are likewise pursuing a much more ambitious lineup than Clinton or Obama did; Biden is endorsing measures related to a panoramic array of liberal priorities, including election reform; police accountability; citizenship for young undocumented immigrants; statehood for Washington, D.C.; LGBTQ rights; and gun control. “There’s a very different strategy this time,” David Price, a Democratic representative from North Carolina and a former political scientist, told me. “There’s an openness now to the sense that a bolder plan, ironically, might have greater appeal for independents and others we need to attract than trying to trim and split the difference” with Republicans. That “bolder plan” from Biden and congressional Democrats is so all-encompassing that historians are legitimately comparing it to the two titanic 20th-century programs that transformed government’s role in American society: the New Deal under Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s and the Great Society under Lyndon B. Johnson in the 1960s. “This is definitely FDR and Johnson territory, especially in the current age of polarization, where so little gets done,” Julian Zelizer, a Princeton historian, told me.

What makes Biden’s approach especially striking is that he’s pursuing these goals with a tiny House majority and a Senate split exactly 50–50 between the parties. (By comparison, Democratic senators had a 23-seat advantage during Roosevelt’s presidency and a 36-seat advantage during Johnson’s.) Biden’s job-approval rating stands only slightly above 50 percent; most surveys suggest that his base of support hasn’t changed much since the November election, despite a recovering economy and his success at accelerating the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations. Republicans believe the magnitude of Biden’s plans will inspire significant backlash from GOP voters in 2022. “Democrats get in trouble when they overreach on spending, taxes, regulating guns, and when the border is a mess,” Bill McInturff, a longtime Republican pollster, told me. “You can see the possibility already [that] all of this could come together in 2022 and create a difficult cycle for President Biden and the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.” Democrats, for their part, are hoping that they “will be rewarded for solving big problems and … Republicans will be punished for sitting on the sidelines and just driving political rhetoric,” John Anzalone, one of Biden’s lead pollsters during the election, told me.

Yet Democrats’ fear of failure may be fuelling the ambitions on vivid display last night just as much as their hope of success is. While most Democrats believe that going big offers them their best chance of maintaining at least one of their majorities next year, many quietly acknowledge that, no matter what they achieve, they face long odds of holding the House in the first midterm election after the decennial redistricting process spurred by the census. And given the difficulty of reaching consensus with Republicans, many Democrats think that their window for significant legislative accomplishments will slam shut if the GOP wins either chamber in 2022. “There is this recognition of this moment and how fleeting it is, and an evaluation that, absent the trifecta of control, it is very hard to move big policy,” said a senior official at one of the party’s leading outside advocacy groups, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategizing. “So you have to take your shot. I think that’s part of what undergirds ‘Go big.’”

snip

[Shell_Seas]

1. I don't have room for this type of negativity in my life.

[brooklynite]

3. What you call negativity, I call reality...

It'll be a tough election, especially given the limited majority in the House and redistricting. The key is to accept reality and work to overcome it.

[ColinC]

13. The reality is that Dems lost far more seats than they would have because of the

Pandemic last year. The field advantage Republicans had because their people were willing to knock on doors at the risk of infecting people was enormous. Now we will be going into the next election with a field advantage larger than the Republicans have ever seen and win back seats lost almost solely to that disadvantage. We will also be going in with one of the biggest job booms and pandemic recovery we have ever seen. I support being realistic, but doing so requires looking at our advantages as well as our disadvantages. Also the more populist policy the democrats are able to get passed, the better they will do next year.

[Cosmocat]

27. That is absolutely a factor in the outcome in November

was something I noted to people early in the summer, Ds were going into the fall with one arm tied behind their back.

Either way, for one fin time, Dems gotta understand how fragile our Democracy is right now, how insane AND relentlessly driven the republican party is, and show up for a friggen mid term for a D POTUS for a change.

[ColinC]

29. Yep

Hoping and praying we do. I certainly will!!

[StarfishSaver]

11. Thank you

[Poiuyt]

15. There's nothing wrong with assessing your threats and weaknesses to better prepare

for the next election.

[USALiberal]

21. Head in sand! Great plan! Nt

[NoMoreRepugs]

2. 3 Months in and already we have to speculate on how

disastrous the next election might be? Give me a F’en break.

[Omnipresent]

5. I know what you mean...

If the economy improves and covid numbers drop, why would Biden and the Democratic Congress pay a price at the polls?
It wouldn’t make sense!

[Celerity]

6. primary elections start in 10 months (the first one, Texas, is March 1st, 2022), some states filing

deadlines close in November and December 2021

[msongs]

4. mich mcconnell is one heartbeat away from being senate majority leader again nt

[Celerity]

12. The Dems in states with Rethug Governors

Sinema
Kelly
Ossoff
Warnock
Cardin
Van Hollen
Warren
Markey
Tester
Shaheen
Hassan
Brown
Leahy
Sanders
Manchin

Then the following are Dems from states where the governor cannot picked a replacement, it is filled via special election only

Widen
Merkely
Reed
Whitehouse
Baldwin (the main one who would be in real danger here)

a total of 20 of our 50 Democratic Senators


Connecticut and Washington (4 Dems) have a Dem governor who picks replacements, BUT by law there also is a special election (unless it is too close to the next US general election), although those are pretty sold Blue states

[Claire Oh Nette]

7. Child Tax Credits

When low to middle income families start receiving monthly checks for their children this summer, that will sway a lot of voters. When vaccines reach more and more of our population, and businesses, restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues open up to more capacity with more offering, and we begin to return to normal, a whole lot of voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote Biden will.

Historic trends may not play out. Biden seems to be the right guy for the time. When schools host proms and graduations this year, and kids return to the classroom 100% in the fall, and family life returns to normal, more people will want to see that stability. The stock market is up, so hit them with "How's your 401(k)?" and remind the GOPers who's President.

THey'll talk of Biden Republicans for decades, just like they spoke of Reagan democrats. The blue collar, working class, non culture warriors aren't going to pine for the days of unrest in the streets and disease at your door.

Guiliani is going down. We have real grown up in the Justice Department. A few seditionist face prison time, and lots of them will suddenly plea bargain.

Biden's had a great 100 days, not perfect, but out of the gate with big, bold ideas that he knows are popular. He's been party to the senate debates and knows what the hot button issues are. He also knows how government works, and I think the next 100 days should be equally encouraging.

YMMV

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

8. If the Democrats keep on letting people know EXACTLY who is taking care of them,

it will be a Republican wipeout. Already billboards have been put up in a number of states letting people know that their Republican Senators did NOT vote for the stimulus.

I suspect that sort of messaging will continue.

[Aristus]

9. I wonder sometimes if the 1994 and 2010 Mid-terms went the way they did

because of disaffected progressive voters.

We already know that many people voted for Nader in 2000 because of the perception that Al Gore was not sufficiently progressive for some people. And we had a gaping, bleeding hole on our collective faces for the next four years after cutting off that particular nose.

I'm pretty far to the left, but I just can't understand the absurdity of thinking "Well, Candidate Unicorn didn't get the Democratic nomination, so I'm just not going to vote at all!"

Joe Biden is promoting the most progressive Democratic legislative agenda in sixty years. I hope it will draw Democrats to the polls...

[MustLoveBeagles]

10. Agreed on all points

[Celerity]

16. really interesting interviews today/yesterday with Trymaine Lee on MSNBC and Milwaukee black voters.

Milwaukee is THE bellwether for black turnout in the entire Midwest (if not the nation) as the black voters there are so, so hard to get to come out (the did for Biden, which let him barely scrape out a win in WI in 2020) AND they hold all Wisconsin state-wide offices and US Senate/POTUS races in the palms of their hands.

If just 4 cities (Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Detroit) had had 2012 level (2008 level was not even needed) black turnout, Clinton would have beaten Trump. The difference in fall-off for black voters from 2012 to 2016 was greater than the total number of Stein voters in all 3 states. (and not every Stein voter was a Dem anyway, roughly 65-70% were, the rest were always Green who will almost never vote for a Dem no matter what). If black voters had turned out in WI at 2016 levels, Biden would have lost the state, same for GA and likely AZ (data is a bit thin there so far). Remember, just 22,000 or so D to R flips split between 3 states (AZ, WI, GA) and Trump would be POTUS still. (270-270 tie with the Rethugs electing him in the House due to their controlling 27 state delegations, and now, post 2020 Census reapportionment, he would have won outright with the exact same vote totals).


Milwaukee voters want targeted relief for Black community

https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/milwaukee-voters-want-targeted-relief-for-black-community-111082565878


Milwaukee’s Black voters assess Biden’s first 100 days

https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/milwaukee-s-black-voters-assess-biden-s-first-100-days-111047749955


Black Milwaukee voters want more action on police reform, grade him 'B minus' so far

https://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watch/black-milwaukee-voters-want-more-action-on-police-reform-grade-him-b-minus-so-far-111067717716

[Cosmocat]

28. Just generally

Ds let both O and Bill dangle 7 of 8 years during their presidencies, showed up to get them reelected, but otherwise let Rs tear them apart like a pack of wolves.

[Progressive Jones]

14. As simple as this sounds...

All the Dems can do is keep working hard, as they have, and build or maintain this momentum.

Re-districting is going to be a mess.

[PortTack]

17. Most articles I see show an easy keep in the senate..even gaining seats

The house, yes a harder battle.

A few things in our favor
The census was not nearly as unfavorable to the Dems as thought. The IL seat lost will be a qgop seat, as possibly in NY

Yes, we have a very narrow majority in the house, this doesn’t necessarily bode well for the qgop in that they made gains in 2020 and now have very little room to expand

The DNC has already put together a list of 22 of the most vulnerable qgop congress critters and has already begun campaigning against them. having seen record breaking donations- 18.4 million in the first quarter, they are flush with money and are organizing on the ground campaigning.

The DNC is also moving back to a 50 state strategy

Cawthorn and especially bobert will probably not survive. Bobert has become an embarrassment to CO and law makers there have been writing letters asking to have her expelled from congress. Cawthorn won by a very narrow margin. Both candidates are facing some very worthy dem opponents

And of course, as Biden continues to surprise and delight..the voting public may be much more willing to keep the Dems in power

[jimfields33]

18. Cawthorne won 54 to 42. Not exactly close

Bobert was closer 51 to 45


I hope your right we can get them tossed out of office. Neither one should be in congress.

[Celerity]

19. Anyone claiming that keeping the Senate in 2022 will be 'easy' is putting on rose coloured-glasses,

especially if we fail to pass all the voters rights/protection bills. Also, historical trends need to be factored in, and the last 2 first midterms for a Dem POTUS were disastrous (1994 and 2010).

We have 4 at-risk seats, plus a potential wild card

in order of risk

GA (Warnock)
NH (Hassan, especially if Governor Sununu runs, plus NH, despite voting for Biden, lurched to the right at state levels in 2020, we lost both the state Senate and state House)
NV (Cortez Masto, we did dodge a bullet when the extremely popular Rethug ex Governor Sandoval recently said he is not going to challenge for the 2022 Senate election)
AZ (Kelly, it helps us that Ducey is not going to run)

wild card from hell

VT - IF Leahy retires and the very popular Rethug Governor (Phil Scott) runs

Bennet in CO should be safe


in terms of flips

there are only 3 that can be called 'fairly possible'

PA (open) the most likely to flip to us atm
NC (open) Jeff Jackson is our best hope IMHO (I think he would have won in 2020, but instead we had the fool Cunningham self-destruct late with the sexting scandal), but that POS Lara Trump is a true wild card, so thank fuck for our Dem Governor there.
WI (still no clue if the traitorous scum Ron Johnson is going to run or not) I would love to see Mandela Barnes, the Lt Governor, run for this

All the rest range from very large reaches (FL, barring Trumpian shenanigans with little Marco, which might push it into the possible reach category, and maybe, maybe OH, now that Portman is retiring, but wow, is Ohio now a red state) to huge reaches (MO, despite Blunt retiring, barring some psycho winning the Rethug primary, then IN, with Young likely an easy winner, and finally IA, where even if Grassley retires, his grandson will be a huge favourite) to finally the damn near impossible. (yes, Rand Paul in KY included, he is not at all likely to lose, as much as we all want it to happen.)

Almost all those key defence states except for NV are Rethug controlled, and the only thing standing between insane voter suppression in NC and PA is a Dem governor. WI too, but barely (the Rethugs just missed supermajority control).

It is certainly within the realm of possibility that we win only one of the 3 probable's (my money would be on PA), but then lose GA and say, NH, which flips it back to the Rethugs. The odds of all that go down IF we pass the voters bills, so Manchin and Sinema need to suck it up hard.

The House, post reapportionment and likely redistricting, is almost dead even before the election goes down when looking at the new seats. (Remember this not NOT even counting the pre-existing at risk seats for anyone, see the next part for that). It is going to take a minor miracle to hold onto the House. We have at least 35, 37 to now as many as 45 or so problematic seats to defend, versus the Rethugs coming in at 25 to 30, 32 or so shaky ones.

[albacore]

20. This nightmare scenario is certainly possible.

No Empire lasts forever, and if our country goes back to Republican control, we may see the end of this experiment.
How the Republicans can con Americans into killing the country, I have no idea, but it certainly is possible.
Biden's approval rating (538) is 10 pts higher than trump ever got, but still, about 40% disapprove of the job he's doing.
Maybe we ARE just that collectively stupid.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

22. Only way to avoid a wipeout is to get Moderate Dem Senators to

do the right thing, and line up with the rest of the Dem Senators behind President Biden and vote further his agenda.

The filibuster must go.

If they won't allow the President to move his agenda forward, there is little or nothing we can do to avoid a wipeout. The President's agenda, if moved forward, will help an enormous number of individuals and families in so many ways, and this will convince them to vote for Democrats.

If Moderate Dem Senators refuse to stand down in their opposition to the filibuster, McConnell will make sure that the Senate won't pass anything that is beneficial to anyone.

[Celerity]

23. Modifications are possible without entirely binning it, but so far Manchin was thrown water on every

one presented. Sinema likely will do so as well. Without at least some truly impactful mods, anything not Reconciliation-eligible is pretty much dead in the water, including the extraordinarily important voter rights/protections bills. If they do not cave in and we pass nothing of import outside of Reconciliation (and Manchin and Sinema will no doubt play games there too) and we then proceed to lose the House and/or the Senate in 2022, they will both go down as two of the most hated Dems in the modern era. I so hope it never comes to that.

We also need to replace Breyer soon on the SCOTUS. We are crazy if we wait to see what happens in 2022.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

24. I am skeptical about Moderate Dems allowing further Reconciliation eligible bills to

move forward as well.

Agree that Justice Breyer should step down ASAP. Wondering if can we trust all Moderate Dem Senators to fall in line and vote for President Biden's replacement nominee, and other nominees for the federal judiciary that our President nominates.

I am hoping that Moderate Dem Senators opposition to passing the President's agenda is just a ploy to make Republicans look bad, and that they will come around once it is clear that nothing they do will convince Senate Republicans to pass anything, particularly HR 1.

Otherwise, democracy in the US will be toast.

[Kingofalldems]

25. So you're saying Trump wins no matter what?

Biden at 60% says you are wrong.

[Celerity]

26. That is your projection, not mine. Furthermore, if you do not

think those voter rights/protection bills are utterly foundational to our fututure forward political power projections in the electoral cycles both near term and further down the path, then I am afraid that you and I are on strongly divergent paths of analysis.