My favorite polling trend

[gcomeau]

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

I've liked the Rand tracking poll all year. As opposed to other polling outfits they don't randomly call different people every time, and have their demographics shifting in unpredictable ways, did they oversample group X this week, etc...

They picked 3500 people at the beginning of July and then they poll the same people through the entire election. When those numbers move it's because of people changing their minds about something. It shows real movement.

Obama just moved back up into the lead outside the 95% confidence interval, up by over 4.5 points. He's been rocketing up the last 4 days. (Yay Joe!)

[unc70]

1. It started even before VP debate

Debate probably helped, but movement began before debate itself by a day or two. Not seen any explanation of how how or why.

[gcomeau]

2. Some was almost certainly...

...simple distance from the first debate and Romney's bump from that fading out of the tracking numbers. Rand is a 1 week rolling average so they had numbers going back to pretty near the last debate that were starting to fall off as well.

[Care Acutely]

3. Nice! Thanks :-)