New poll by Democratic pollster Stan Greenburg in swing states and districts

[JoanofArgh]

A newly released poll from the Democratic firm Democracy Corps, surveying battleground states and congressional districts, lends fuel to the more pessimistic outlook for Biden and congressional Democrats. Conducted between April 27 and May 3, the survey finds that Republicans are tied with Democrats on the generic congressional ballot (45 to 45 percent) in these swing states and districts. Republicans are showing more enthusiasm for their party: The percentage of Democrats showing the highest levels of engagement dropped from 85 percent just before last year’s election to 57 percent in this month’s survey. By contrast, 68 percent of Republicans say they’re still highly engaged, compared to 84 percent before the election.

Far from being a divided party, Republicans look awfully united behind Donald Trump’s brand of populist, culture war-driven politics. The purging of outspoken Trump critics like Liz Cheney from the party isn’t dissuading traditional Republicans from maintaining their partisan affiliation. In these battlegrounds, Republicans are holding onto more than 87 percent of “non-Trump conservatives,” a constituency more skeptical of the former president, with just five percent defecting to Democrats. A clear majority of “moderate Republicans” (70 percent) are also sticking with the party for next year’s midterms, with just 13 percent preferring Democrats. Republicans are holding onto the softest part of their coalition, while maintaining the enthusiasm of the Trump base in opposition to Biden.

On this competitive turf, Biden’s job approval rating stands at 49 percent, with 45 percent disapproving. But the intensity of support or opposition tips the scales towards Republicans: 33 percent view the president “very favorably” while 38 percent view Biden “very unfavorably.” Biden is also losing ground with independents: Just 35 percent of these swing voters approve of the president’s performance, while 47 percent disapprove. Democrats are winning a mere 17 percent support among independents on the generic ballot, with 34 percent backing Republicans and a 45 percent plurality saying they’re undecided.

These battleground results suggest that while Republicans’ brand is battered over their abject loyalty to Trump, the Democratic Party’s own leftward drift is also deeply alienating to middle-of-the-road voter. “We were surprised by how much Donald Trump’s loyalist party is totally consolidated at this early point in its 2022 voting and how engaged it is,” the polling memo reads. “Democrats cannot fail to see how Trump’s party is fully engaged with its ongoing culture war, focused on crime, open borders, and defunding the police. Democrats are at risk of repeating 2020 if they do not prioritize defusing and neutralizing it.”

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/713769/new-poll-warns-democrats-about-overreach/?unlock=M4Z418ULEIKP13D8

[SKKY]

1. What the NY AG just put out last night, and what will likely ensue, is going to...

...tamp down some of that enthusiasm.

[brooklynite]

6. You're wrong...

It will let the Republican candidates play up "we're being persecuted" narratives.

[Champp]

12. yep. republiQons are The World's Greatest Whiners

They whine about everything. Deity Donny is their adored repuliQon Whiner-in-Chief, but they all do it. Sad.

It is so unmanly. So fugging lame, shameful, and unmanly.

[PortTack]

21. They will do that regardless of what we do. There are lots of Dems and independents on the

Fence waiting to see if justice is done. Talk about tamping down dem enthusiasm!! It will hurt us a lot more if we let them slide.

[brooklynite]

7. You're wrong...

It will let the Republican candidates play up "we're being persecuted" narratives.

[redstateblues]

2. Sounds like doomsday is approaching

[Elessar Zappa]

5. Well,

it’s up to all of us to do our part by donating, volunteering, and voting for Democratic candidates. All we can do is give it our best.

[qazplm135]

11. Ordinarily true

But that isn't going to happen if enough folks say it's over we've lost...18 months before the election.

If folks keep pushing this doomsday narrative they will guarantee it happens because enough folks will believe them and say fuck it, why participate? It's a waste if time.

I get that some of them think this approach will make HR 1 somehow pass, but it won't, and the damage caused in voter enthusiasm will be self-fulfilling.

[Elessar Zappa]

13. Oh I agree with you 100%.

I hate all these posts about how if HR1 isn’t passed that democracy is over. It will lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy because people won’t bother to vote or work for candidates.

[PortTack]

20. Agree!! Stop the negative talk and get moving!

If someone had said as little 10 months ago GA would go for Biden, AND they would elect 2 dem senators they would have been laughed at!!

[JoanofArgh]

8. Well, they're swing districts, the polling isn't surprising. The enthusiasm is more of a problem

but then it always is for Democrats in mid terms with a Democratic President. I'm not surprised that R's are sticking with their party even though the moderates hate Trump. It's what they do and why they're more susceptible to authoritarians. They follow their leader , always, even if they hate him. It's still early and the enthusiasm level can change especially when it's made clear our very democracy may be at stake.

[arlyellowdog]

3. Hmmm National Journal

[brooklynite]

9. When in doubt, shoot the messenger...

"Least Biased".

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/national-journal/

[Dawson Leery]

4. Rachel Bitecofer says that the base is needed in off-year elections.

Without Biden on the ballot, the Dems will need the base just as much as the GOP.

With that said, tamp down the "Defund" rhetoric and be reasonable on the infrastructure bill.

[SergeStorms]

10. As the elections near...

I believe Democratic support will spike. People are tired right now. Tired of COVID, and most of all tired of 4 years of non-stop bullshit from the Orange Blob. Democrats know how powerful their votes are now, and in spite of all the republiCANTS attempts to stifle Democratic voters, they'll come out in droves to rid the country of the republiCANT plague.

At least they better, or else I'll come visit every individual Democrat who didn't vote. And you don't want that now, do you? 😡

[Dawson Leery]

14. In fairness, we Democrats were in the same postion 4 years ago.

As 2018 rolled along, the trends moved in favor of the Democrats. Will they do so next year? Will Democrats see the threat of an authoritarian GOP?

[LenaBaby61]

15. IF stupid, and very ignorant voters aren't convinced by now ...

That the GQP are nothing but a bunch of fascist, authoritarian, dictator-type wanna be's who want to PERMANENTLY destroy this country by turning it into what they want, which is Hitler's 3rd Reich, then it's game over, only for GOOD this time. I'll have no choice but to move to Canada like several friends told me that they were going to IF tRump had pulled off his coup by cheating & stealing the 2020 General election from Biden & Harris.

[Elessar Zappa]

17. Heads up

that it’s very hard to move to Canada unless you have significant resources or a highly sought skill, which you may have. It’s the same for most of Europe.

[LenaBaby61]

24. Trust me ...

I know how difficult it is. But, I've done my homework in how to get my ass out of this country and to Canada if this country does fall into hands of the GQP, and their Third Reich revisited, only this time permanently goal. And if I don't make it into Canada, then Mexico. I have several very dear friends I grew up with since elementary school here in the LA County area that I've known for over 55 years who've BEEN trying to get me to move to Mexico for many years (We're mostly all in our 60's now). They knew my late parents, I knew their late parents. We know each others families/brothers/sisters. They've come to visit me here on this side of the border throughout the last 40 or so years. In essence, we are close as family.

Bottom line is that if the GQP is successful in stealing a General Election, and if ignorant voters don't care about living under a Third Reich scenario, then I have to save myself. I'm too damn old to be living through another Third Reich, only this time it'll be GQP-inspired. I'll settle on one side of a damn border (Canada or Mexico) somewhere.

[Elessar Zappa]

25. Same here.

I’ll find some way out if our democracy falls.

[NurseJackie]

16. Time for people to stop "shitting on our own" for no good reason...

... instead it's time to start kneecapping and smearing Republicans instead doing things that weaken and diminish Democrats.

[Cosmocat]

26. T H I S X 1,000,000

I just don't get how hard it is for Dems get into the game as they play it, ESPECIALLY given repubicans make 85% of what they slander democrats with out out nothing and there is PLENTY that Rs do and say that is very much worthy of disdain.

[ColinC]

18. Most polls still have them up above 5%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

[JoanofArgh]

22. It's going to come down to getting out and voting and I believe we will.

[ColinC]

31. Exactly. We had a disadvantage in gotv last election

That won't happen again...

[PortTack]

19. I don't care who's doing the polling...they have all been flat out wrong for the last 3 cycles!!

Volunteer, give..do what you can.

No one predicted the depth of the ‘18 blue tsunami, the ‘16 debacle or 2020 losses in the house or the GA runoff this year. Not sticking my head in the sand...I’m pulling it out!

This poll says nothing about the shrinking numbers in the qgop...by the tens of thousands they are leaving. Or the fact that a growing number of youth propelled Biden to a win. We were 81 million to their 74.

moody analytics was the only one that called the race for Biden and almost a year b4 the election.

[getagrip_already]

23. what needs to end is the narrative that the gop is in disarray.....

They aren't. The party establishment is going through a purge, but it isn't in disarray, and the voters who typically vote with their ticket are still there.

The only sign's of dissent on their side are the few that are being ousted.

The money groups are all still there. Their voters will still blindly vote for whoever has an R next to their name.

We need to maintain our anger, our fear, and yes, our loathing. We need people to turn out to vote and to donate to our candidates.

2022 will be an uphill battle already in both houses. If we lose the house, it will be non-stop impeachment hearings. If we lose the senate, not a single nominee or bill will pass. With either, we will likely see gov't shutdowns worse than ever before.

Realizing that won't make people stay away in disgust. It will turn them out.

[Cosmocat]

28. Y E P

nm

[Saboburns]

27. The GOP is shedding voters. Those who stay will be the most loyal.

The GOP is shedding voters. Those who stay will be the most loyal. This is hardly surprising to me. And that is exactly what this poll shows. The GOP are indeed growing more rabid and loyal. And it will continue to cost them national elections because of it.

But what it doesn't show is the 30% on Independents who decide national elections. And how they are leaning.

[getagrip_already]

29. party registration is not the same as voting patterns....

The gop is at best 25% of registered voters, but yet their candidates still post close to 50% in every race.

If anything, the loss of registered republicans will make the candidates nominated even more cray-cray. But, even crazy town candidates can still win.

[Saboburns]

30. Indeed

But the crazier they get the smaller percentage of votes they'll get.

See also GA 2020.

[MFM008]

32. Lets see how many democrats

The supreme court piss off by next November.