So What Are the Odds That Trump Is Playing the Odds

[MineralMan]

Is he betting he'll die before he gets convicted of a major federal crime, goes through appeals all the way to the SCOTUS and is ordered into a federal prison?

That's my guess. The entire process could take as much as three or four years, with stalling, filings, and hearings that keep being delayed. Meanwhile, Trump is out there being Trump - grifting and spending. Then, he dies before serving even one day in federal prison.

I think the odds are strongly in favor of that outcome, really.

[Midnight Writer]

1. 100%.

I doubt he is mulling over his own mortality, but he can apparently delay legal consequences indefinitely, and he will continue to do so.

[hlthe2b]

2. His biggest threat of prison comes from NY at the present time. Not sure how that helps.

He can try to manipulate public opinion around the prospect of Federal charges all he wants. I seriously doubt he'd find anyone in NY legal position of authority who gives a damn.

Regardless, the legal process will not allow his last years to be "comfortable free of concerns."

[MineralMan]

6. Doesn't matter. He can stall on appeal in NY as well, and even

file federal appeals if convicted there. Each time, he will avoid prison during the appeals process. Happens all the time.

The number of types of appeals that will be available to him are many, and most appeals courts will allow him to stay out of prison during the appeals process.

[11 Bravo]

16. At least he'll be spending his own damn money instead of sticking Uncle Sam ...

with his legal bills.
I wonder what Ivanka, Jr., Gums, and Not Ivanka will have to say as they watch Lard Ass piss away their inheritance.

[Prof. Toru Tanaka]

20. Well, Junior is trying to get people

to cough up $500 to get a for sure reply and the low, low price of only $19.95 for the 99% probability that they will be completely ignored.
I wonder what Vanky and Gums will come up with to match this...

[live love laugh]

3. And betting Cuomo is gone and an infiltrator replaces him by then. nt

[Mr.Bill]

4. That sounds logical,

but I honestly think that Trump thinks he will live to be 200 years old. He even made that part of the results of one of his physicals in the White House.

[getagrip_already]

5. if he is a malignant narcissist, no......

He has his own version of reality, centering around himself. He doesn't believe he will die. He believes what the religious whackos told him.

Besides, he isn't smart enough to maneuver like that. His whole life has been obstruction, bribes, threats, and blackmail. Very blunt tools taken to an extreme nobody else would dare.

He does believe he can stretch out proceedings, wear down the courts, stack the juries, ands eventually outlast the prosecution. That is what his delusions and the big lie are aimed to cover. Create enough chaos and he can win.

But he does not expect to die. If whatever judge gets the case is smart, they will issue a gag order on trump and his lawyers.

[arlyellowdog]

9. That was good. Exactly right.

[MineralMan]

10. Oh, I think he is aware that he will die in the next few years.

I'm about his age. I'm always aware of that, even though I continue to live as I have in the past. However, it is impossible to ignore that possibility once you're in your mid-seventies.

[Ocelot II]

14. The difference is that you are sane, at least as far as we can tell;

and TFG clearly is not.

[exboyfil]

7. He doesn't give a damn

but I kind of hope we have a sane country in the 2040s that recognize what an absolute disaster of unprecedented proportions his term was.

Kind of like Roberts name is going to be linked with Taney.

[Gregory Peccary]

8. I wish he'd hurry up the whole dying part of his plan

[Pantagruel]

11. The entire process itself

will be a terrific fund raising theme. He'll claim persecution and his drooling followers will open their wallets to fund his defense. They'll pay a lot of money to keep Trump, and in effect themselves, from a conviction of criminality and a perception of failure and stupidity .

[Ocelot II]

12. I don't think Trump thinks he will die any time soon,

since he has delusions of almost immortal strength and health (and his parents lived into their 90s). According to some of the latest reports, he is said to really believe he will be reinstated to the presidency in August, which would mean he would be safe from prosecution until 2024. And he probably also thinks the Constitutional prohibition against more than two terms doesn't apply to him, because the Constitution is fake news or something. I really think he's crazier than ever and has started to believe his own bullshit. It will be interesting to see what he and the worst of the Red Hats do when August comes and goes and Biden is still the president.

[getagrip_already]

18. just a nit, but the constitution doesn't say anything about the number of terms....

It limits a presidents time in office to a max of 10 years. That could be over 5 terms as far as the constitution cares.

It was designed to allow a vp to serve out the last 2 years of a presidents term, and then run twice more (assuming they won both elections).

Otherwise a VP might be limited to only 5 years in office if the standard was 2 terms.

[Ocelot II]

22. The 22nd amendment says:

"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once." Article II, Section 1, Clause 1 of the original Constitution provides for four-year terms: "The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. He shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years, and, together with the Vice President, chosen for the same Term, be elected, as follows..."

So, two four-year terms. A vice president who takes over a president's term before it expires can only run once more if he has already served more than two years.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

27. Hypothetical situation: The MyPillow guy is elected president. His VP is the Kracken.

Immediately after being sworn in on January 20, 2025, she resigns. Who should be nominated for VP, but ....

Oh, wait. My LSD dealer is here. I'm all out. That stuff just last any time at all.

BRB.

[getagrip_already]

34. thats what I said....

So if a potus serves 2 years and 1 day and dies, the vp becomes president and can then be elected 2 more times. Correct?

That is a max of 10 years minus one day.

They can only be "elected" potus twice, but they can be vp for 2 years and then finish the previous potus term before their first election (as long as it is less than 2 years).

[MineralMan]

19. Well, one thing is certain. It doesn't really matter what he thinks.

He will die. We all will. Some of us make our peace with that. Others pretend it isn't so.

[PortTack]

13. I very much agree. As much as I would like to see him go to prison, I resigned myself long ago

It most likely wouldn’t happen for the very reasons you laid out..and very well I might add.

I find the thought of him being dead flat broke the next best thing. Now there’s a real chance for that to happen.

[LanternWaste]

15. He lacks the discipline and conviction necessary to pull it off.

But still, our puerile guesswork gets us nowhere.

**-

[MineralMan]

24. I'm not sure where you get that.

He has been filing multiple appeals in cases for decades. That's his strategy for everything. If sued, he keeps filing appeals until the person suing him runs out of money and gives up.

Even if he loses, that happens years later.

It's what he does.

In any case, your choice of adjectives is noticeably odd. Puerile? More drive-by snark?

[soothsayer]

17. Lock him up

[Buckeye_Democrat]

21. He's so delusional that he probably thinks he'll never die.

Evidence (to the contrary) isn't his strong suit, either.

[Captain Zero]

25. Like Liz Cheney said,

He has to be kept as far from the white house as possible"

[tinrobot]

23. Odds are slim to none. That narcissist assumes he will forever.

[marble falls]

26. The odds is even. The closest he wants to be President is it's better than prison. It's the ...

... consolation prize if he can't simply somehow slip the cuffs.

[Tommy Carcetti]

28. If he dies a convicted--or even merely an indicted--man, that's better than nothing.

Remember, he left office literally as an impeached President still awaiting his impeachment trial. That's almost unfathomable to leave office under such cloud when any normal departing President is concerned with wrapping up loose ends and planning their post-Presidency ventures.

No matter how it plays out, his historical legacy will be absolute shit. Barring--God forbid--someone even worse, he'll be known far and wide as the worst President this country has ever had.

[MineralMan]

31. But, see, once he's dead, that won't matter to him one bit.

That's the thing about dying. Your life ends, along with your consciousness. Some might believe otherwise, but there is zero evidence for any individual existence after death. None. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

So, Trump wouldn't care about his legacy after death, I'd think. I doubt he believes in any sort of afterlife.

[Tommy Carcetti]

32. Those of us lucky enough to survive his demise, however, will know and remember.

And we can at least carry on the history in the hope that people might learn from it the next time a wretched, unqualified and broken soul attempts to run for the highest office in the land.

[MineralMan]

33. I'd hope that were true.

However, we seem to forget such things rather quickly, in a historical sense.

[orleans]

29. i think the odds are pretty good that trump is looking forward to crashing the next wedding

standing before the band, making another lengthy & paranoid speech to the stupid wedding party who actually wanted to have a trump hotel wedding--while melanoma scurries through the lobby in search of a hot little bellboy she can club and drag back up to her room for a little snack

[Blue Owl]

30. Odds are good and the goods are old