🧵 @PalmerReport 1) Manchin and Murkowski both need voting rights legislation to pass in order to get

[soothsayer]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1401724566636924928.html

Link to tweet

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1) Manchin and Murkowski both need voting rights legislation to pass in order to get reelected in their red states (Murkowski will be primaried from the right). It’s why voting rights legislation will ultimately pass. But neither wants to be seen as rigging their own reelection.

2) What I mean by that is they’ll each face a far right reelection opponent who will accuse them of having “rigged” their own reelection by supporting voting rights legislation. And a lot of red state voters will fall for this line of crap.

3) So yeah, Manchin is doing everything he can to give the appearance that he’s against voting rights legislation, because that helps him in his reelection bid. But he’ll have to pass voting rights legislation, because that also helps him in his reelection bid.

4) So what you’re seeing right now is a very awkward dance from a mediocre politician who’s trying to be so loud about opposing voting rights legislation, no one notices when he ends up quietly voting for it.

5) And when I say “mediocre politician” I mean he’s not as slick at selling this line of shit or walking this tightrope as he’d like to be. A slicker or savvier politician would have an easier time of pulling off this particular balancing act.

6) At this point it appears Manchin wants to pass the key parts of HR1, but he doesn’t want to vote for something called “HR1.” Why does this distinction matter? He can then campaign in his red state on having killed HR1, while having also enacted HR1.

7) Biden and Schumer are going to let Manchin play this semantic game as long as it gets passed in the end. Both because it’s the smart way to play it, and because it’s only way to play it. They can’t just bop him on the head and magically get results; this isn’t a cartoon.

8) As I like to say, 95% of politics takes place behind the scenes. Biden and Schumer aren’t doing “nothing” just because they’re not publicly setting their hair on fire. Their job isn’t to dance for your entertainment. It’s to get results for you behind the scenes.

9) It’s notable that Manchin and Murkowski seem to be in lockstep on voting rights legislation. Makes sense. They’re close. And they give each other “bipartisan” cover no matter how this plays out.

10) Maybe Biden will offer Murkowski some things this week, to put the heat on Manchin. But it’s not as if Murkowski is going to heroically turn against Manchin, like in some movie. If anything, Murkoski could convince Manchin to come with her on whatever Biden offers.

11) Contrary to the fiction that gets tossed around on Twitter, Manchin actually voted with the Democrats far far far far far more often than Murkowski (look it up). So this sudden notion of Mirkowsko being better than Manchin, or Murkowski becoming a Democrat, is laughable.

12) Then there’s Sinema, who’s doing a terrible John McCain “maverick” imitation. She’s looking for an opportunity to jump in and cast a heroic vote and (in her mind) be the hero. The rest of us will just wonder why she acted like a buffoon before finally voting correctly.

13) In any case, our job is to keep as much pressure on Manchin, Murkowski, and Sinema as possible. But you MUST approach it with the mindset that you’re going to successfully pressure them into caving. If you just rant about how they’ll vote wrong no matter what, you’ve lost.

14) Finally, don’t forget that politicians are only ever trying to set the stage when they speak publicly. You all think Manchin is dishonest, so why on earth would you believe him when he says he intends to vote a certain way? Ignore his words. Fight like you’re going to win.

15) And don’t forget: Biden is the most effective Senate wrangler of the past 50 years. Schumer takes his cues from Pelosi, who’s great at this. They’re much better at this than Manchin or Sinema. Why would you presume Biden is going to lose this battle to those two lightweights?

[NoRethugFriends]

1. Lot of wishful tinking and fantasy here (nt)

[SCantiGOP]

10. And a lot that just doesn't make sense

[NoRethugFriends]

16. Yup

[PSPS]

2. This is all pure speculation (palmer report is always wacky,) but it would be nice if true.

Usually, though, palmer report stuff is out there with aliens in area 51 stuff.

[GP6971]

3. Palmer Report??

Not very reliable.

[progressoid]

8. Agreed.

[Maraya1969]

4. I hope this is right. So far all I've gotten from Manchin is disappointment.

[SergeStorms]

5. Yeah, sure.

Anyone who thinks this is a political maneuver by Manchin doesn't know his/her ass from a hole in the ground. There hasn't been a hint of anything but stonewalling on the voting rights bill by Manchin since the start.

[summer_in_TX]

6. Makes sense to me.

I think a lot of work is going on behind the scenes. And it would surprise me if Biden's relationships with Manchin didn't find a path forward, probably through the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

[NoRethugFriends]

7. Dream on (nt)

[Midnight Writer]

9. I wonder if they can't add onto John Lewis and have a win-win.

Manchin saves face, and Democrats get key voting rights legislation.

[secondwind]

11. I agree with you.

A lot is going on behind the scenes.

[Kablooie]

12. Palmer often comes up with nice sounding explanations ...

But he's almost never correct.
His whole thing is constantly claiming the left is winning and the right is miserable because everything is going wrong for them.
Almost never the case.

[bluestateboomer]

13. I'm going to try and think this is correct.

Maybe I can find some peace in the delusion. Because what I see out in the open is just too depressing. Everyday I try to think of what I or the collective we could do to head off the obvious disaster looming for the country, but I come up short. Where do you march, who do you call, where do you send money to influence the closed minds.

[peggysue2]

14. Nice thought but . . .

Unless the filibuster is reformed or eliminated, the voting rights bills aren't going anywhere because you're not getting 10 Republicans to vote on anything any time soon. You can't pass the voting bills through reconciliation (not budget related). Unless, of course, there's some magic trick to get the Parliamentarian to redefine reconciliation.

Manchin doesn't need to worry about his reelection being perceived as 'rigged'. His term doesn't run out until 2025, a lifetime in politics.

That's taking nothing away from Biden who is a seasoned legislator. I'm sure there's plenty going on behind the scenes. But short of breaking arms and legs or calling up the ghost of LBJ, I'm just not optimistic.

It's a conundrum. Also another reason to hate McConnell and his evil elves.

[obamanut2012]

15. hahaha Palmer Report

[msfiddlestix]

17. There is a lot of logic to this analysis

I think it's the best way to consider our prospects. At least better than any one else has put forward, on a practical level.

That I've read anywhere. Targeting Manchin in the form of ouster isn't to our benefit on any level.

Let's at least be clear eyed about that.

And one more thing, Let's please not give Manchin any more mentions here. It's gone to his head, he's enjoying the spotlight immensely, and that's pretty much how he like it.. So what is the benefit for us? Not any that I can think of.