Gallup LV shows Romney doing better than McCain across ever demographic, including women

[ProSense]

CHART: Gallup Shows Across-The-Board Decline For Obama Since ‘08



http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/chart-gallup-shows-across-board-decline-for-obama

Now look at the PA poll that came out today:

In today's survey, men back Romney 54 - 43 percent, compared to a 49 - 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 - 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 - 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 - 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 - 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 - 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.

Men -11 (Gallup -14)
Women +18 (Gallup +6)
White -10 (Gallup -22)


PA poll posted here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251145441

[still_one]

1. There sampling and assumptions are screwed up. No single women, and most married women will

Not vote for Romney. Even if they tell there spouse differently in the red states the majority will not vote for Romney

The daily volatility shows the sampling is screwed up

[tarheelsunc]

2. If Obama has leads in the East, Midwest, and West, then he's going to win easily.

This is proof, as I suspected, that Romney's gains are among Southern Republicans mainly. That's distorting the national poll a great deal. Obama is still the leader as long as he controls the battlegrounds and the only real battlegrounds that can be considered southern are North Carolina and Florida. Let Romney grab a lead in Arkansas of 50 points if he wants, but he can't win if he alienates the Ohio undecideds.

[spanone]

3. so what did romney do to suddenly impress so many women?

ain't buying that.

[ProSense]

5. You don't believe winning the debate

trumps women's rights?

[Glimmer of Hope]

8. It is complete BS.

[Baitball Blogger]

4. Gallup just strung us along to develop credibiity, just to expose themselves

for the hacks they are.

[Bucky]

13. Good one!

Yes, the people who think the public opinion polls are rigged do end up saying ridiculous stuff like that! (Well, maybe not THAT bad, but near enough).

Still, maybe we should all quit making fun of them. In the long run, fact deniers and paranoid conspiracy nuts don't really matter that much to the democratic process. You should save you wicked-dry sense of deadpan humor for the Lounge. These GDers just don't "get it."

[Baitball Blogger]

16. Actually, Gallup was debunked a few years ago because they overrepresented Republicans, Bucky.

[Bucky]

27. No

Please provide a link for an outlandish claim like that. Gallup might've been criticized for overrepresenting Republicans in a sampling method in some past study (both Republicans and Democrats routinely gripe when they don't like the results--kind of like what you're doing here or what the Foxheads were doing a month ago when Obama was winning in polls), but organizations like Gallup have internal controls to make sure they're following scientifically valid methodologies in their work. Their future employment depends on it.

Here's a good article addressing some of your concerns. Gallup itself might not be "debunked" (actually only claims can be debunked, not people). But of course Gallup isn't making claims; they're releasing scientifically researched findings.
==> http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/17/gallup-poll-race-barack-obama_n_1589937.html

[Baitball Blogger]

28. You're wrong. This has been known for quite a while. Do a google.

Currently, they are oversampling white voters by six percent:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/29/1125529/-Gallup-Oversampling-White-Voters-and-Not-a-Little

- - - - - -

October 15th 2012

The Obama Campaign Calls Out Gallup’s Deeply Flawed Battleground Women Poll

The Obama campaign pointed out that Gallup’s likely voter survey was way off in 2010, “Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallup’s likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallup’s survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election. Gallup’s likely voter model predicted a 15 point advantage for Republicans, 55-40, on October 31, 2010. The final result was a 6 point margin, 51-45. That year, Gallup’s registered voter survey was much closer to reality at 48-44.”

http://www.politicususa.com/obama-campaign-calls-gallups-deeply-flawed-battleground-women-poll.html

- -- - -

And it was known as early as 2004. The main points are caught in this snapshot. Unfortunately the link is old and won't connect to anything, but the snapshot captures the main points:

September 17, 2004
Don't Believe Gallup - Their CEO is Oversampling Republicans, and Gives to Bush

The Left Coaster: Why You Should Ignore The Gallup Poll This Morning - And Maybe All Of Theirs


Given that Gallup’s CEO is a GOP donor, this should not be a surprise. But it does require us to remind the media, like Susan Page of USA Today, who wrote the lead story on the poll in the morning paper, and other members of the media who cite this poll today, that it is based on a faulty sample composition of 40% GOP and 33% Democratic.
Posted by ScreamingPoints at September 17, 2004 12:46 PM

http://www.screamingpoints.com/archives/000278.html

But

[OldDem2012]

29. Thank you. nt.

[davidn3600]

6. Im sick of polls

Im tired of one day a poll shows one thing and then the next day a different poll shows the opposite.

Just get this election over with....

[David Zephyr]

7. ProSense, what women were they polling?

Here goes Gallup on the eve of the debate creating a falsehood that defies every poll for the last six months where President Obama has a commanding lead with women.

American women know what's at stake in this election. And I trust them.

[ProSense]

12. There was no room in the title, but

Romney is doing better than McCain among non-white voters (including Hispanics).

President Obama has been crushing Mitt among Latino voters and is polling lower among blacks. In fact, the PA poll has Obama 97 to Mitt 1.

[David Zephyr]

20. OK. I bit.

And in Boston, Los Angeles, New York, Detroit, Chicago and San Francisco I hear Romney is looking at 90% support now.

[OldDem2012]

9. LOL!! Thanks for the levity!....

After all that's been said by Romney, Ryan, and the rest of the GOP, do you really think the majority of women voters are going to vote against Obama? Seriously??

Take your hands off the keyboard and back away from your computer. Take a break.

[fugop]

10. Love that 2008 numbers are so much later!

Note that the 2008 numbers are from what, the weekend directly before the election? After all the debates were over and people's minds were made up? Wouldn't it be fairer to compare numbers in 2008 from mid-October?

Oh wait. That isn't the narrative they want. What bullshit.

[Johonny]

11. Seems to me mostly loses in the South

East a little below margin of error, mid-west, west about the same and south is in free fall. I don't see Romney winning the presidency losing everywhere but the south, even if he won the south by these fantastic margins.

[Bucky]

15. Exactly.

Of course more drift is possible. But the Republican machine is chugging right on schedule. These people are dangerous.

[Bucky]

14. That's it. I give up. I'm going to go kill myself now.

Seriously, people. This only means work harder and go volunteer more.

[Jennicut]

17. Wow, the South is full of haters. Makes a difference in the national polling.

Obama and Romney are close in the east, west and midwest but Obama is ahead. Which fits with some battleground state polls, especially Rasmussen's swing state poll of Obama plus 2 today. The west and midwest is so incredibly important it's scary.

[Ter]

18. Why is this a surprise?

Does anyone on this entire site think Obama will do the same or better than he did in 2008? The race will 99% certainly be closer than last time.

[ProSense]

19. It's not a "surprise"

It's bullshit!

[Ter]

21. Well, let me ask you

Do you think Obama will win by a higher or lower percentage than 2008, about the same, or lose? I can't see him losing, but I also would be in shock if it isn't closer.

[fujiyama]

23. It will definitely be closer

I live in SC now (I'm originally from the midwest) and boy, they absolutely HATE Obama down here. The only supporters I've found are African Americans, and other transplants (OK there's a few other white natives here and there that support him, but they're few and far between).

I'm not surprised his numbers are showing up to be that low down here. And the thing is, I don't believe it's all racism (I'm a minority myself and I've been treated pretty well with the exception of one or two racist ass holes)... It's partly a delusional Calvinist streak. People here work hard, don't make much money, yet feel that Obama is giving all their money away to his base (OK, so maybe there is a bit of racism as well). Either way, it's bizarre. People without health insurance thinking Obama is giving away free phones. These people aren't bad. But they're just sooo damn ignorant.

[dsc]

22. Of course he is doing better than McCain did

He almost certainly was even when Obama had his 4 to 5 point lead (he beat McCain by 6). I think with the exception of gay voters he will do better than McCain across all subgroups (I am predicting a 4 point or less Obama win). He may do worse among Latinos as well.

[ProSense]

24. Nonsense.

Romney will not match McCain on black, Latino or support among women.

It's not going to happen.

[dsc]

26. Latino's have a right to be unhappy with Obama

frankly had the GOP not shot itself in the foot by acting fool on immigration Obama would be in deep trouble among Latinos. Obama deported more people than Bush, didn't put forward an immigration bill, and the construction industry which employs alot of Latinos is still a mess. Thank God he did the changes he did a few months ago. Now, he doesn't deserve all, or even most of the blame for this state of affairs, but the fact is Latinos have every right to be exceptionally unhappy. Now, Romney is probably the world's worst candidate for appealing to Latino voters thank God for us, but the GOP could have made some real inroads this election had they chosen to do so. I think Obama will lose some level of Hispanic support though not as much as he would have had he not implimented what he did executively.

[ProSense]

31. Frankly,

"Latino's have a right to be unhappy with Obama frankly had the GOP not shot itself in the foot by acting fool on immigration Obama would be in deep trouble among Latinos."

...get a grip!

CNN Poll: Latinos show big support for Obama policy
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021468944

Growth in Latino enthusiasm and Democratic vote numbers disheartening for the GOP
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021406110

Nate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141125

[dsc]

33. they are voting against Romney as much as for Obama

the fact is if the GOP had nominated Perry I think he would be about even with Latinos. The GOP shot itself in the head here for which we should be eternally grateful.

[ProSense]

35. Spin it anyway you want, Romney is not doing better than McCain.

Still, when did you become the spokesperson for Latino voters?

[dsc]

36. yes he is

There is no state that Obama lost last time that he will win this time. Obama will lose Indiana. So on that alone Romney is doing better than McCain. Obama also won't win the CD in Nebraska he won last time. Now, that said, I do think Romney is now, and will end up, with a slightly higher percent than McCain had in 08. I think Obama will get about 52 this time instead of 53 in 08 with Romney getting about 47 vs his McCain's 46.

[ProSense]

37. Nonsense.

"So on that alone Romney is doing better than McCain. "

Romney is doing better than McCain among white men. What does that have to do with Hispanics?

If you're interested in facts and not trying to spin super Mitt.

Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021506630

[dsc]

39. One poll showing a lead doesn't mean he is winning a state

he won't be winning Arizona.

[ProSense]

41. He's going to win Arizona and

Texas: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021569100

I the spokesperson for both states.

[ProSense]

38. Another thing

while you're trying to validate Gallup's bogus numbers.

Gallup had the President +14 in the East in 2008.

How do current leads ranging from 8 points to 38 points produce +4?

A new CT poll has him up 15 point.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/1012CTPolRelease.pdf

[dsc]

40. The east includes all of the following states

Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut. Rhode Island, Mass, New York, PA, MD, DC Delaware, NJ, Kentucky, and WV. I do find a plus 4 a bit suspicious. But surely he doesn't have an 8 point lead in WV, KY, PA, or NH. He likely has double digit leads in DE, DC, MD, RI, MA, VT, and NY. Single digits in NH, ME, CT, PA, NJ. And is losing in WV and KY. I think it is more reasonable he has a lead of about 10 in this region maybe more.

[Ter]

30. He will slightly

Not much, but McCain did exceptionally pathetic. Romney should do 1 or 2% better with blacks, and 5% or so better with women and Hispanics.

Come back to this thread after the election. You seem to still believe that Obama will do as good as last time, and I don't have a clue as to why. Zero chance Obama wins by 6 points or gets as many EV's as 2008.

[ProSense]

32. Wait

"Romney should do 1 or 2% better with blacks, and 5% or so better with women and Hispanics."

...did you miss the fact that Romney is polling at 1 percent among blacks in PA?

He's currently underperforming among Hispanics and womne in nearly every poll.

[fujiyama]

25. I really doubt he will do worse

among Latinos (at least non Cubans anyways). Romney is probably the least appealing candidate to Latinos the GOP could have put up. Obama will basically take NM and possibly NV and CO largely due to the Latino vote.

Now on the other hand, turnout itself could be potentially problematic (Latinos may or may not be the same % of the voting electorate they were). But I think the Obama campaign's outreach efforts have been effective thus far (with the exception of that forum).

[Motown_Johnny]

34. That was when Shrub was still in office and the economy was in free fall

It was a much harder year for any (R) back then.

It is perfectly reasonable to assume that Rmoney will do better than McCain.