PBS: Coronavirus Delta variant 'may hit us pretty hard' this fall.

[BlueWavePsych]

And we are beginning to see this pattern play out in hospitals and in states, where there are younger people coming in the hospital. And, in many cases, they are unvaccinated. And, of course, they thought they were fine. But they are not.

But when I talk to colleagues around the country, and they say, who am I seeing in the hospital in the intensive care unit, it increasingly is folks that did not get vaccinated or have only gotten their first shot.

So, that is a warning sign that, if you're not vaccinated, you may be lulled because you see the case rates going down and you say, look, I don't have to worry about anything. But, in fact, you do. The case rates are going down because the vaccinated people are not getting infected. You are no better protected than you were in January 2020.

And, actually, you're less protected, because the virus is better at its job than it was in January 2020. So, those of us who take care of patients, just — we plead for people to get vaccinated. Please stop waiting. This is the time, particularly if the Delta variant is going to hit us. It will hit us in the fall. And it's — it may hit us pretty hard.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/coronavirus-delta-variant-may-hit-us-pretty-hard-this-fall-heres-what-you-need-to-know

We can't do anything about the anti-vaxxers and hesitant Repukes, so let them go extinct. If you haven't yet, get fully vaccinated.

[global1]

1. MSM Needs To Loudly Communicate This Fact To The American People......

What I've been hearing on the news is that this country is normalizing. The States are opening up and dropping the mask mandates, social distancing and everything is opening up again.

Ticker tape parades. 4th of July BBQ's. Broadway re-opening. etc, etc, etc.

We see the number of Covid cases going down. We see the hospitalizations going down. And the death count is also down.

What they fail to report is that the cases, the hospitalizations and the deaths that they ARE reporting are heavily weighted to people that haven't been vaccinated.

They need to drive that message home to the American People and they really aren't. They are concentrating on the normalization - but not on the critical info that - un-vaccinated people are the ones that are succumbing to Covid.

They are setting us up with a false sense of security and what worries me is that at some point in the future - due to the anti-vaxxers and the new virus variants - we're going to see a surge again and may even have to go back into lock-down.

We're not out of the woods yet people.

[Initech]

3. Oh god, no way I could take another lockdown.

And I'm sure that most people can't. I hope this report is just fearmongering but we'll wait and see what happens.

I think a surge or third wave will be inevitable, mainly thanks to anti-vaxxer idiots, but at this point anything is possible.

[notpolltested]

5. There won't be another lockdown nt

[Initech]

6. Yeah no, that will not end well.

[Hugin]

7. Yeah, unfortunately, I agree.

Not even if people are falling dead in the streets.

[Blues Heron]

16. There will if the hospitals fill up

Bet on that

[liberal_mama]

17. If the hospitals get overrun, they will do another lockdown. They would have no choice.

The government and CDC doesn't really care if 100,000 people die, but in a situation where the hospitals get full, they would have to take action. Whether it's a Covid variant or another pandemic in the future. The restrictionss are dependent on how contagious the virus is and the mortality rate. They predict how many people might die without mitigations. The only reason they did the restrictions with Covid was because it was projected that millions of Americans would die. The lockdown and masks prevented that from happening.

[notpolltested]

21. No Republican governor will impose any restrictions and I'm doubtful even a Democrat would

at this point. Also, I very much doubt there would even be a need.

[Hugin]

23. Once again, I agree.

Unfortunately, with the first part. But, happily with the second.

The vaccinations have proven to be a pandemic turning point in the US.

Now, if only the covidiots would run out and get it, we could all get back to arguing about whether water is wet. It's free for crying out loud!

[liberal_mama]

27. I'm not saying they would for the current pandemic, unless there is a particularly nasty variant

that can break through the vaccine and becomes more deadly. Between the amount of people vaccinated and the amount of people who have already had Covid, I think it's probably unlikely to get bad enough again that Covid19 could pack the hospitals.

However, if there was a situation in the future, with something like the 1918 pandemic or the Black Death, they would have to lock it down again. Like what would happen if there was a coronavirus that was as contagious as Covid19 with a mortality rate of MERS. It depends on the R0 number, the incubation period, and mortality rate.

I hope a pandemic never happens again in my lifetime, as it's been a year and a half of terror for me. My husband is an essential worker who went to work everyday when the area in New York we live in was getting slammed. We lost a family member to Covid last February. There was never really a lockdown for me and my family, but I appreciated the people who did stay home as there were less people out there spreading it.

My husband and I are both high risk medically, so we were able to get our vaccinations in early March. I'm immune compromised as I have diabetes, lupus, psoriasis, and RA, so I still have to take precautions and wear a mask in public. As long as these anti-vax fools refuse to get their shots, the nightmare is still ongoing for a lot of us.

[Yavin4]

2. The federal government should have mandated that Medicaid and Medicare recipients get vaccinated.

That would have gone a long way towards to getting the nation to herd immunity.

[womanofthehills]

20. The federal government can not even mandate the military get the vaccine

Until it is no longer classified as experimental. It it not licensed by FDA yet. What do you want to do- take peoples Medicare away from them if they don’t get the vaccine???

[Yavin4]

33. If you're on Medicare, you are at great risk from dying from the virus. Greater than any other group

Statistically, COVID-19 is indeed no worse than the flu IF you're under 50. If you are of Medicare eligibility age, you are at the highest risk from dying from the virus.

For people on Medicare, it's either take the vaccine or die from the virus. There is no other choice.

[notpolltested]

4. Some like Michael Osterholm were also talking about a category 5 hurricane in March when in reality

cases plateaued for a bit and then continued falling, so I tend to tune out the doomers at this point. Yes, people need to get vaccinated to protect against future vaccine-evasive variants, but this is not one.

[BannonsLiver]

9. The CDC predicted a huge wave in May

And so did a lot of people around here. Didn’t happen. Those who said it wouldn’t were viciously attacked by our resident “experts.”

I expect this variant will be troublesome but unlike so many here I’m not quite ready to push the melodrama-panic button.

[Initech]

10. Yeah they said that about the British variant and that didn't happen.

So I will take a wait and see attitude in approach to the media fear porn, but anything is possible.

[BlueWavePsych]

12. Here's Where COVID-19 Cases Are Rising and Falling

Missouri had the highest increase with a 101 percent jump to 4,517 new cases.

There were 21 states that reported an increase this past week in COVID-19 deaths, compared with 11 states the previous week.

Florida recorded the most COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days with 232.

Texas was second with 217 reported deaths. That was followed by Georgia with 172, Pennsylvania with 130, and Illinois with 118 deaths.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/here-are-the-states-where-covid-19-is-increasing-2

Don't think this is a case of 'media fear porn'; the data says otherwise.

[Initech]

13. I personally am not shocked at all that it's red states where this is rising.

When the third wave hits, that's exactly where it will hit. But I'm not expecting anything to be as bad as the second wave was. Even my brother who's an ER doctor who has been working on the front lines, has said that he thinks the worst of this is behind us. There's still a lot of unknowns out there, but nothing will be as bad as it was last December.

And if a few anti-vaxxers want to take themselves out of the equation, let's just say I will not miss them.

[BlueWavePsych]

11. That's exactly the complacency that gets people infected

[BannonsLiver]

15. If it were complacency

You’re confusing complacency with an accounting of actual facts.

Fact: The CDC predicted a massive wave of cases in May.

Fact: Those who said hey wait a minute cases our going down, maybe we’ll get lucky, were viciously attacked, called “complacent” etc.

Fact: The May wave did not happen. Cases continued their downward slide.

I’m sorry you feel like an accounting of facts is complacency. You can save the sanctimony about complacency etc for someone who is actually complacent. Fully vaccinated and still masking up on this end.

I just don’t shit my pants when I read news stories such as these, that’s the critical difference.

[BlueWavePsych]

18. The CDC works with real time data and adjusts their models and projections accordingly.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is predicting that Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths will fall over the next four weeks. The CDC ensemble forecasts conclude that there will be a total of 596,000 to 606,000 Covid-19 deaths by June 19.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/28/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Data from six models indicate that with high vaccination coverage and moderate NPI adherence, hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationally, with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 2021. Lower NPI adherence could lead to substantial increases in severe COVID-19 outcomes, even with improved vaccination coverage.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7019e3.htm

Now, the CDC is sounding the alarm on the Delta variant and how it will impact projections.

https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/cdc-calls-covid-19-delta-variant-a-concern-114857029852

To simply dismiss their projections and use their May 2021 projections as a predictor for future performance would be dogmatic and encourage complacency (fortunately impacting mostly red states).

[womanofthehills]

22. Part of their alarm could be our vaccines are not optimal for the Delta variant

In the UK news the last few days, 42 people died from the Delta variant - one third of the dead were fully vaccinated.

[notpolltested]

25. Our vaccines are primarily Pfizer / Moderna while UK is primarily Astrozenaca so you can't quite

compare.

[ProfessorGAC]

29. Understated, But Totally Correct

96% of USA vaccinations were Pfizer or Moderna.
In the UK, it was under 20%.
The preponderant vax there was Oxford/AZ.
That's a tiny(!) fraction here.
There's absolutely no comparison possible at this point between the 2 countries.

[Ace Rothstein]

35. There were supposed to be so many spikes according to DU virus experts.

Super Bowl
Spring Break
Easter
Mother's Day
Memorial Day

[BannonsLiver]

37. We have people who desperately want it to continue

Either because they don’t want to go back into the office or like the ready made excuse not to socialize (I made liberal use of that myself). And in some cases, I assume some are hoping for a Darwin effect on the unvaccinated.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. There is herd immunity in many places in the US already

My country is at 60% vaccinated, another 1/3 of those not vaccinated have had Covid, so we're in a place where community thread will be very limited at most.

The South? A lot of the South will not get there, so this is their problem now.

Furthermore, with continued spread comes new variants, but there's nothing we can do to stop that, the new and potentially more dangerous variants will come about overseas regardless of what we do here.

[roamer65]

19. In-person schooling will be the match that lights it.

It will spread via the usual fall route for noroviruses, influenza and colds.

[womanofthehills]

24. Maybe breakthrough cases - many kids have natural immunity

More Than 500 Breakthrough Infections Reported in Mass. in Under 3 Weeks..

As of June 5, there were 3,641 cases of COVID-19 among 3,500,011 fully vaccinated people in Massachusetts, according to the Department of Public Health. That's 558 more cases than the reported 3,083 fully vaccinated people who had tested positive as of May 17, first reported by MassLive. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/more-than-500-breakthrough-infections-reported-in-mass-in-under-3-weeks/ar-AAL6O3L?ocid=uxbndlbing

[notpolltested]

26. Less than 1% chance of a breakthrough per their own numbers nt

Last edited Thu Jun 17, 2021, 02:05 PM - Edit history (1)

[dalton99a]

28. Saying PLEASE didn't work. Begging didn't work. Pleading didn't work.

It's time to improve the incentives

Free meth? Free blow and hookers? A free F-150? A free F-150 AND a boat?



Fuck them. Let them die.

[DrToast]

30. It's going to hit some STATES pretty hard this fall

Some states have vaccination rates of 70-80%. Those states will largely be protected and the the strain will have a hard time spreading there. In the states with low vaccination rates, they are in trouble.

[roamer65]

31. We all know what states those are...

Generally down south, generally Repuke, generally Dump lovers and full of anti-vaxxers.

They generally are a drain on the US Treasury and will the cause of my health insurance premiums going up yet again next year.

[wiggs]

32. While it's clear that the fully vaccinated don't, at this time, get as sick and perhaps don't

get infected at nearly the same rate as unvaccinated...but I believe it's still an open question what the true rate of infection is among the vaccinated. If there are no symptoms among the vaccinated, there's no reason to test. And without testing we don't really know if we carry the virus and transmit at some level above 0%.

So I believe it would have been more accurate to say 'The case rates are going down because the vaccinated people are not getting infected...at the same rate as the unvaccinated'

And we don't know if there are long covid reverberations among the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic with Delta. Just hasn't been enough time to know, and that's something about covid19 that's been true all along...there's a lot we don't know and we are always playing catchup, weeks behind the trend (to paraphrase Fouci).

[liberal_mama]

34. I've been fully vaccinated since March, but still taking all precautions

I'd rather not get Covid at all, not even a mild case. The doctors and scientists don't know if vaccinated people can get long haul Covid from mild or asymptomatic cases of Covid so I will wait until they do know. I understand that some want to go back to living their lives and that's fine with me. If I were younger and not immune compromised, I would probably be willing to take more risks.

[wiggs]

36. Wise. That's another thing we know...is that each individual needs to evaluate risk according

to their own circumstances. CDC proclamations can't possibly address individual needs and comfort levels. From the beginning, we've had to do our own fact-finding and research to be more informed. I relied a lot on epidemiologists such as:

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing

Recent posts indicate that rate of hospitalizations with Delta is 4x greater than original, and that the severity of symptoms among younger unvaccinated is significantly increased.