In the race to be the next mayor of New York, Adams leads

[brooklynite]

Ipsos

In the race to be the next mayor of New York, a new Ipsos poll shows Eric Adams appears to be in the best position to win Tuesday's Democratic primary. He has the advantage due to a combination of solid name recognition and strong marks on dealing with the most important issue in the minds of voters, crime and safety.

However, with ranked-choice voting premiering this election, the contest is far from over. Adams currently is the first choice for only about a quarter of likely Democratic primary voters. This means there is significant opportunity for voters' second, third, fourth, and fifth options to swing the race. Our simulation suggets the ranking exercise will go all the to a head-to-head matchup between two candidates before someone gets over the needed 50%+1 threshold.

In our new poll, Andrew Yang comes in second, with Kathryn Garcia and Maya Wiley tied in third. Adams looks to be in the lead because he appears (in some position) on the most voters' ballots, giving him the most routes to the 50%+1 majority. However, Yang and Garcia also are ranked on a majority of voters' ballots, giving them potential paths to victory.

Crime and safety is increasingly seen as the number one issue by New Yorkers, currently with over half of likely voters selecting it as one of their top issues. Handling the COVID-19 pandemic, affordable housing, and reopening businessves are each top issues for about a quarter of New York voters.

[Hortensis]

1. Ranked choice is scary when you think of how MANY really don't

know enough about the candidates to figure out which ones actually reflect the same general ideology and goals. Or which ones are dingdongs, which are proven competent, which have records of integrity, and which ran on red-flag campaigns of massive lies.

Remembering how in 2020 many here earnestly listed their first and second choices as either (I) Sanders or (often) a mainstream progressive liberal Democrat, of different ranges of experience and places on the liberal spectrum. Including Elizabeth Warren, who was extremely different both ideologicaly and in other very important ways was far more like Biden than Sanders. What we'd be seeing happening, or not, now and the outcomes of their presidencies would have been very different.

[Polybius]

3. It should only be used for your top two choices

Allowing people to pick 5 or so is insane.

[Polybius]

2. Who's leading for the Republicans?

The only one that I even know running is Curtis Sliwa.

[brooklynite]

4. "Sliwa likely to win Republican mayoral primary - but who knows?"

The headlines in New York City have largely been dominated by the Democratic mayoral primary – and with good reason. But there’s also a two-person Republican primary going on, giving the party a choice to select the person who will likely lose to the Democratic nominee in November. The race is between Curtis Sliwa, a radio host who founded the Guardian Angels crime prevention group in the late 1970s and patrolled the high crime areas around the city, and businessman and activist Fernando Mateo, both of whom have quietly become the laughingstock of the party.

A recent poll found Sliwa had a 6-point edge over Mateo, leading with 33% of 250 Republicans surveyed in a PIX11, NewsNation, Emerson College poll released last week. However, the poll found that 40% of Republicans were still undecided on who to choose for mayor.

Republican politicos said Sliwa’s name recognition and backing from the Republican parties in Brooklyn and especially in Staten Island – the strongest Republican county party in the city – could give him a boost. But not everyone is sure.

https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaign-confidential/sliwa-likely-win-republican-mayoral-primary.html

[Polybius]

5. Only two people running?

How would ranked choice work with that? Wonder if they leave the second choice blank or if they still vote for the other guy.