Republicans gaining House control through gerrymandering

[ibegurpard]

I'm not buying into the conventional wisdom on this. California loses a seat likely Republican. New York loses a seat likely Republican. West Virginia loses a seat definitely Republican. Ohio loses a seat already so gerrymandered I can't see how they eliminate a Democratic seat. Michigan loses a seat done by a commission so likely status quo or loss of a Republican seat. Illinois loses a seat and it will most likely be Republican. Pennsylvania loses a seat their court will likely keep things status quo
Texas gains two...already heavily gerrymandered. Florida gains one already heavily gerrymandered. Oregon gains one... good chance a D seat. Same with Colorado and Montana. North Carolina gains one unsure but I don't see a lot of change there either.
I've played around with congressional district configurations all over the country and I just don't see a lot of room for growth for them past what they've already put in place.
I'm a lot more worried about some of these voting nullication and supression measures they're putting in place.

[Chainfire]

1. The can't win if they don't cheat.

[andym]

2. Here is an article that agrees with you

http://www.ncpolicywatch.com/2021/05/05/inside-the-gop-gerrymander-for-2022/

[ibegurpard]

4. Here's what I'm thinking

Republicans know they don't have nearly as strong a hand on this as they are projecting and are trying to craft a narrative to depress Democratic voters and thus votes.

[PortTack]

3. You are absolutely right about the gerrymandering

As far as the voter nullification they cannot do that.
Read the 15th amendment...

[lagomorph777]

5. Thanks for something to brighten my day!

I appreciate the level of detailed thought you've put into this.

[ibegurpard]

6. Read the article posted above as well

Says a lot of the same things I'm saying here.

[WarGamer]

7. logically the census delivered 3-4 Seats for the GOP

And a few more EV's in '24.

So... GOTV!!!!!!!!

[ibegurpard]

8. Not necessarily

As I've spelled out and has the article someone else linked above.
But yes GOTV

[sciencescience]

9. On average in the last 10 elections 21 house seats have flipped

So gerrymandering alone probably won't be the deciding factor.

The median change is 13 so gerrymandering alone probably won't be the deciding factor looking at that number either.