Here's something to ponder - the trump organization has LOTS of outstanding loans with various.....

[George II]

....banks and organizations, $600B with China alone.

After the trump organization is indicted in a few hours, how many of their loans will be called in? I would hope most of them.

[greenjar_01]

1. Nobody's calling in any loans over this small potatoes indictment

[George II]

3. It's not just tomorrow, its:

[Hoyt]

4. Tend to agree. Plus, the banks know calling the loans will likely cost

them money ultimately.

But, I’m fine with hoping and sullying trump’s reputation among a small percentage who still support him. Some will continue to love trump, no matter what.

[Skittles]

7. I think an indictment over "perks" sounds ridiculous

what about the money laundering?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. Makes me think they need Weasel-burg to prove more

serious stuff?

[Skittles]

10. I....hope

I guess we will see.

[Dan]

15. "Perks",,,

Let see, just off the top:

Providing cars. = per year figure/estimated $10 - 20 K.

Providing hotel accommodations = per year figure/estimate $75 - 100K at least.

Providing tuition money for kid = per year figure/estimate $50 - 80K

And that’s the little we know, oh and not reporting this as income = $30K per year.

Guess, the little perks add up.

[Skittles]

17. yeah but......it doesn't have the bite of LAUNDERING MONEY FOR RUSSIA

ya know?

[Dan]

18. The CFO is an old man

If they decide that 5+ years in jail - then that can be a lifetime.

But the smart move for the DA - is to go after his sons - break their asses with the threat of jail and penalties.

Suspect that the CFO as a father is not like Trump. Most fathers would not like to see their children hurt, unlike Trump (unless its Ivanka - who I suspect that he’s screwing).

[Skittles]

24. Trump would throw Ivanka under the bus

make no mistake - his priority has always been himself

[SmartVoter22]

26. Money laundering may be Euro legal issue

Trump used foreign banks, so the money laundering may fall under European laws and crimes. I would think he could be indicted for overseas crimes, here in the US and the money was spent here. But the false documentation to get the loans may be under foreign control as it originated there.
we can hope this does open Russian money laundering scams and target Americans who abused this kind of illegal financial activity.

[Kablooie]

20. I hope this is just the first move with much deeper ones to come.

[Skittles]

23. yeah, the chess moves

we've seen - or haven't seen - those play out

we will see, I guess

[Maeve]

29. It's tax evasion, same thing that brought Capone down

And I think George has it right about being the first of the dominoes

We've been disappointed too many times, you're right there---but hope springs eternal that this time, taking it slow may win the day.

[malaise]

41. One step at a time

The Slobfather is history - it's all down hill from here

[Skittles]

42. I see now he is trying to make a hero out of Ashli Babbit

the man gets more pathetic by the DAY

[malaise]

43. He's a fool

Imagine if the Speaker sent a mob to the WH and one of the mob was shot by the SLobfather's security detail. Imagine the Speaker asking for the name of the security detail.
Fuck the SLobfather.

[Skittles]

45. imagine if Ashli was black

and protesting social injustice

[malaise]

46. He would celebrate the police for killing black Ashli

[Skittles]

47. absolutely correct

[LetMyPeopleVote]

36. Deutsche Bank has already given notice that they will not renew TFG organization loans

Other lenders are not happy with TFG. We will see what happens

[mcar]

40. Still think it's small potatoes?

[RainCaster]

2. That is a very happy thought

[Calista241]

5. Banks want their loans to get paid back. More than anything else.

And they know if they all, or even some of them, call in their loans, the Trump org will declare bankruptcy, and then nobody is getting paid shit.

Trump himself is probably no longer a billionaire. He's in his 70's, and any money manager worth their salt would have most of his assets in a trust or other vehicle to be dispersed to his heirs upon his death. Given the shrewdness of his money management in the past, there's no chance this hasn't happened or isn't in the process of happening.

It also depends on what the Trump Org is charged with. If it's the un-accounted for tax shit we've been hearing about, that's basically nothing. Weisselberg may barely have a fine and probation if he's convicted of that. The Trump Org will have to pay some taxes, and maybe a penalty if the prosecution get lucky.

One things for sure, there's no pleading guilty. The Trump Org is going to fight this to the bitter end, and if it's what we've been hearing, they have a good shot at winning.

[global1]

11. Could This Indictment Be The Tr**p Organization's Exit Plan.....

And the banks know if they all, or even some of them, call in their loans, the Trump org will declare bankruptcy, and then nobody is getting paid.

The Org. folds. Tr**p and his kids probably have sheltered millions and millions of dollars - so their lives won't be hurt much.

The Org. gets out from all of its debt - through bankruptcy.

This seems like it was a giant ponzi scheme from the start.

[Dan]

16. RICO

Just a little thing, if they get the Trump org as a criminal enterprise, there is no such thing as a little thing. Income tax fraud can get ugly and the penalties can be a bitch.

[Kablooie]

21. They also know the first one to call in is the most likely to get paid.

So either they hope everyone sits back or they all rush in to be the first.
Will they trust that all of Trumps creditors think sitting back and waiting is the best move for themselves?

[RockRaven]

6. None of the banks (or whoever) that Trump owes money want to precipitate a bankruptcy.

They all want to get paid back as much as possible -- which means keeping the corpse of a business that is Trump Org alive for as long as possible. Some of the more delusional ones may even hold out hope that other suckers will come along and loan/give Trump enough money for them to be totally repaid (cognitive dissonance is a helluva drug).

[global1]

12. This Is Where The Ponzi Scheme Kicks In....nt

[ZonkerHarris]

22. yeah, they're his partners in crime.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

9. It could happen... If loans fully secured. Thought at

one time Trump Tower was worth a lot of what he owed to DB anyway.

And it's trump's MO to negotiate down debt. So a bank may be better off calling and selling the collateral if not repaid.

Would love to see those notes. Remember Lawrence said they were cosigned by oligarchs.. and then retracted?

[global1]

13. Seems To Me The Banks That Are At The Top Of The List To Call In Loans.....

might be the ones that will come out of a Tr**p bankruptcy the best.

There might not be that many Tr**p properties out there to save all the banks. Some will lose and lose big.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Depends on whether or not it's in loan agreement that you can call a

loan in the event of an associated financial indictment? Doubtful?

Can call if not paying per terms. But if a bank has first lien on a property they can sell it if client in default.

[ffr]

14. If it results in T---- experiencing something worse than the prison sentence he so rightfully

deserves, that is, an all the ilk who surround that leach as well, then I'm going to have to send out for pizza and popcorn.

[sop]

19. What happened with all those property valuations Trump was phonying up to defraud banks

to get bigger loans while cheating the government to pay lower taxes?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

27. Waiting for Weasel to flip? Total guess - Michael Cohen

Has already told them they did it. He spoke of that in his hearing a couple years ago. But they need a link to actually knowing numbers were phony? Weasel & Trump could just say... I didn't know, I counted on others to determine values? But is that matter if trump signed return?

[onethatcares]

28. maybe we little people

will get to see how the lords and masters of the universe are treated a bit differently than the working guy that can't make his VISA card payment.

A few underlings will get tossed in Club Fed and things will quietly go away.

Maybe TFG has an island somewhere with Ken Lay and a few plastic surgeons..

[tanyev]

30. Banks, shmanks. How much does Donny owe Putin?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

31. Yes! And if it's really true that they co-signed on some of Trump's debt

Wouldn't that be funny if they had to end up bailing him out

[kentuck]

32. Right! Trump is not worried about getting the money, in my opinion.

What he can't get from Putin and the oligarchs, he will get from his gullible supporters. I don't think the banks matter at all.

[Johnny2X2X]

33. Trump Will never go broke

People waiting for that don’t get it. He owns a lot of real estate. Selling a couple buildings in Manhattan alone and he’s out of debt. His whole business is about managing his debts and not paying them. These loans are nothing to him. While I don’t think he’s as rich as he says, the assets he owns are indeed worth a lot.

And there are business deals he had in the works trading favors as US President to people too that will start to pay out for him. He monetized the presidency. We’ll never even know all the ways he sold the US out to line his own pockets.

[George II]

34. He personally won't go broke, but he will lose many of his properties.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

35. Here is my prospective as a corporate lawyer

The trump organization lenders may soon take action. Every corporate loan agreement contains a representation that the borrower is in compliance with the law and in some cases this representation may be qualified by material adverse effect language to the effect that there is a breach of this representation only if the breach of the law has a material adverse effect ("MAE" on the borrower and its business. Each loan agreement also contains a covenant that the borrower is complying with the law and this covenant may be subject to MAE language. In addition the borrower normally has to notify the lenders if there is a material adverse change in the business or prospect of the Borrower.

For term loan agreements, the borrower has to submit regular financial statements and a certificate signed by a senior employee of the borrower that all representations and warranties made in credit agreement are true and correct and that the borrower has complied with covenants. If the lender is a federally insured institution, there are criminal penalties for false certifications to an insure financial institution. For revolving loans, the borrower has to submit a certificate for each draw on the loan containing the above certifications. The Manhattan DA may not enforce this requirement but the SDNY could bring suit if they want against anyone who signed a certification to a federally insured lender. The trump CFO needs to assume that if the trump organization is convicted, then the SDNY could also bring charges against the CFO for false statements made in loan certifications.

The trump organization lenders have the right to cut off future draws under any revolver and may call the term loans. Most agreements provide that a breach of covenant such as compliance with laws or lack of a material adverse change are defaults allowing the lender to call the loans. There may be a cure period for covenant breaches but this is the type of breach that cannot be cured. Weak borrowers are sometimes have to agree to an insecurity clause which allows the lender to call the loan if the lender deems itself insecure.

The counsel of the trump organization lenders will be reading today's indictment and they may either cut off loans under any revolver or call a term loan.

This will be fun to watch

[George II]

37. In a nutshell, that's what I was thinking. If they violate the law, owners of their mortgages....

....could call in the loan.

Some may not, but others worried about their reputations or liability would do so. From what we've heard, they owe a LOT of money, and even if a fraction of that is called in it could destroy their cash flow and they could default on other loans. That could destroy the company.

AND, inasmuch as the trump family are the sole owners (it's not a publicly traded company) it could financially destroy them all.

Actually, other than Ivanka's trinket business, which she said she was getting out of, all they own is real estate and I'm sure they don't own any outright.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

38. Trump Organization Charges Magnify Risks of Debt Refinancing

TFG has a ton of debt that needs to be refinance and this indictment will make the refinancing of that debt more difficult https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-01/trump-organization-charges-magnify-risks-of-debt-refinancing

Now, in the latest twist, the business and its longtime Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg, 73, are facing charges relating to tax crimes. The exact charges Weisselberg is facing will be unsealed on Thursday, but are expected to involve unpaid taxes on benefits extended to him. The move by Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance could have long-term repercussions on Trump’s ability to keep the business afloat and refinance debt.....

Commercial loan covenants don’t typically mention criminal charges in part because they’re such a rarity for businesses, but also because charges are just that -- charges, not convictions, according to professor Adam Levitin at Georgetown University, who specializes in bankruptcy and commercial law.

A spokesman for Deutsche Bank AG, a favored lender for the Trump Organization, declined to comment on how the charges may impact the loans they have coming due.

Even if the loan documents don’t speak directly to criminal charges, sophisticated lenders -- and their lawyers -- can find a way to push the issue. Federal courts are no stranger to lengthy, expensive fights over what gives rise to defaults under commercial lending agreements.

“Regardless of the specific provisions in loan documents, when a lender wants to cut ties with a corporation that’s in trouble -- particularly in trouble with the law -- the lender will often find a way to call a default and get out of dodge,” said David Prager, a restructuring and financial adviser at Kroll, who wasn’t speaking about the Trump situation specifically.

It may also be harder to find banks willing to refinance the debt down the road -- most banks would balk at extending a loan to a company subject to a criminal indictment.

This will be fun to watch

[LetMyPeopleVote]

39. Kurt Eichenwald has some good observations about the effect of this indictment on the trump org

Kurt does not see how the Trump Org survives this without some sort of corrupt deal overseas. I tend to agree

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