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Tue Jul 6, 2021, 10:17 PM

CDC says that the Delta variant is now the dominant one in the US

According to a report on NPR news tonight, the CDC says that the Delta variant of covid-19 now accounts for 51.7% of all new covid infections in the US, making it the dominant strain as it replaces the Alpha strain.

That didn't take long.

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Reply CDC says that the Delta variant is now the dominant one in the US (Original post)
wnylib Jul 2021 OP
Phoenix61 Jul 2021 #1
SheltieLover Jul 2021 #2
PoindexterOglethorpe Jul 2021 #3
wnylib Jul 2021 #4
Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #5
liberal_mama Jul 2021 #9
Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #10
Tree Lady Jul 2021 #15
moonscape Jul 2021 #28
wnylib Jul 2021 #21
liberal_mama Jul 2021 #23
roamer65 Jul 2021 #24
wnylib Jul 2021 #25
Blue_true Jul 2021 #12
Throck Jul 2021 #6
Ms. Toad Jul 2021 #11
luckone Jul 2021 #7
Blue_true Jul 2021 #13
GPV Jul 2021 #19
Blue_true Jul 2021 #26
vercetti2021 Jul 2021 #8
Blue_true Jul 2021 #14
vercetti2021 Jul 2021 #16
Blue_true Jul 2021 #17
vercetti2021 Jul 2021 #18
Blue_true Jul 2021 #27
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jul 2021 #20
ProfessorGAC Jul 2021 #22
moonscape Jul 2021 #29
ProfessorGAC Jul 2021 #31
BannonsLiver Jul 2021 #30

Response to wnylib (Original post)

Tue Jul 6, 2021, 10:24 PM

1. It was doubling every 8 days a couple of weeks ago. nt

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Response to wnylib (Original post)

Tue Jul 6, 2021, 10:25 PM

2. Ty for posting, Wyn



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Response to wnylib (Original post)

Tue Jul 6, 2021, 10:30 PM

3. I keep on wondering at how the variants keep on being dominant.

Clearly, there's a lot about this I don't understand.

My first thought is to wonder about international travel. I know that last year a lot of that was cut way back. But are international flights more or less happening as they used to, back before the pandemic? Why?

Only speaking for myself, I have not been anywhere, other than to stores and such in my own small city, since I returned from my wonderful Hawaii Cruise in the middle of March. Yes, it was a wonderful cruise, a long delayed 70th birthday present to myself. While on the cruise, which started March 1, we were of course learning about the growing pandemic, but honestly felt extremely safe. My cruise line was Holland America, and I hope to take another cruise with them in coming years.

I am vaccinated. Perhaps more to the point I've always been in annoyingly good health. Pretty sure I have not gotten Covid, not even as an asymptomatic person.

Why are countries allowing international travel? And how is it that the variants are moving so quickly? It almost feels like a magic trick, even though I know that's not the case.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #3)

Tue Jul 6, 2021, 10:57 PM

4. The large numbers of infected people

become like petri dishes for the development of new strains. Viruses mutate constantly. It's their nature. Most mutations don't amount to much. But some of them make the virus more contagious, or more serious, or both.

When a mutation is more contagious, it doesn't take many people to spread it to new places. One person can infect several people, who in turn infect several more.

I heard an infectious disease expert say that restricting travel only delays spread but does not prevent it. Places can't stay isolated forever. Sooner or later, an infected person will carry it to another location. Ships carrying imports and exports, trains and their crews transporting goods, truck drivers delivering food and household items. Contagion will happen.

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #3)

Tue Jul 6, 2021, 11:20 PM

5. The Delta variant is becoming dominant all over the place because it is so contagious.

So let's say we start out with 10 regular cases of COVID and 1 Delta case.

Delta cases are 1.6 as contagious, so each time the regular cases double - the Delta cases increase by 1.6 x 2

So for 7 cycles of doubling, here's what happens:

10 regular -> 20 regular -> 40 regular -> 80 regular -> 160 regular -> 320 regular -> 640 regular-> 1280
1 Delta -> 3.2 delta -> 10.24 Delta -> 32.768 Delta -> 104.8576 Delta -> 335.5443 Delta -> 1073.742 Delta-> 3435.974

So even though the Delta variant started out at 1/10 of the regular cases - in 7 "doublings" it now has 3 times as many cases as the regular variant had (and the spread between the two will continue to grow)

So - it doesn't take many initial cases to create an incredibly large number of cases in a very short period of time.

And we're not doing ourselves any favors by acting as if the pandemic is over - no one is masking around here (aside from a handful of us who are already vaccinated). And breakthrough cases are at somewhere between 19.2% and 50% as many as cases in the unvaccinated, for the same exposure. I'm not sure I trust the Israeli data yet - but even at the lowest reduction in effectiveness - Delta loves that!

A friend of mine was on a Holland America cruise (the Zaandam - that was delayed going throug the Panama Canal) and got COVID as a parting gift.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #5)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:03 AM

9. This is so horrifying to me. My husband and I are both vaccinated, but he's an

essential worker and literally no one else at his job is vaccinated. They are all Trumpers and Covid hoaxers. One of his co-workers had a huge 4th of July party and my husband went, maskless, and was gone for 12 hours partying with 100s of unmasked people.

Now his mother's cousin died (who he doesn't even know, he didn't even know how she was related to him until he asked his uncle) and he's going to her funeral tomorrow. His mother had 13 brothers and sisters so there are literally dozens of cousins and relatives that will be there. His family is mostly Trumpers and unvaccinated too.

Since the CDC changed the guidelines, my husband feels he is completely safe to go anywhere without a mask because he is vaccinated. He says he can't catch Covid and he can't transmit covid. I'm immune compromised with diabetes, lupus & psoriasis and our younger son isn't vaccinated yet and he's got asthma. I am literally terrified constantly with his behavior. He acts like the vaccine is a magic shield that gives him complete protection, but I've read enough things online to know that this isn't true.

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Response to liberal_mama (Reply #9)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:08 AM

10. He's wrong - but all you can do is try to protect yourself.

My spouse was dmotionally/intellectually incapable of keeping her mask on (even before she was vaccinated). I spent about half of the first year of the pandemic sleeping in my recliner in the living room with a HEPA air purifier good to .3 microns running.

In your shoes - I hate to say it - but I'd be wearing masks in the house (as I did whenever my spouse decided to have lunch with a buddy), and sleeping separate.

Sorry! I feel for you!

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Response to liberal_mama (Reply #9)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:36 AM

15. My husband is doing the same thing

Tired of wearing a mask he says I am vaccinated and safe. Gets mad at me if I try to tell him about variants. He is done with it. If it didn't affect me I would say its your choice but when its that contagious ugh!

I just got back from trip to visit family for 6 days, everything in CA open and its like covid never happened no masks at most restaurants and shops and stores.

I wore one a few times but hard not to go along with family. We are all vaccinated but this variant is scary.

I can't wear one around the house I can't live like that.

For years we have had separate towels in kitchen and bath to keep colds and flus from spreading and its worked but this seems to be airborne.

I think I will keep us at home, I am the one who plans going out to eat or to a winery or activity.

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Response to Tree Lady (Reply #15)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 07:00 PM

28. Depends where one is in CA. I'm on the

Central Coast, very liberal area. Just got home from the supermarket and while everything is indeed open, about 75% of shoppers were masked. Varies a lot.

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Response to liberal_mama (Reply #9)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:54 PM

21. Have you considered moving

into an apartment with your son? Your husband's indifference to the well being of you and your son is appalling. Even if he didn't believe in the protections, a caring spouse would at least consider your concerns and feelings.

It might be wise for you and your asthmatic son to wear masks at home and avoid close contact with your husband.

Best wishes on this and take good care of yourself and yiur son.
.

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Response to wnylib (Reply #21)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 01:30 PM

23. I do wear a mask whenever I'm around my husband

The only time I take my mask off is when I'm in my bedroom with the door closed. He sleeps in a different area of the house. I had hoped we'd be safe after the vaccinations. I felt so relieved after I got the second dose, but now there is all this troubling news about breakthrough infections, the vaccine not working well in immune compromised people, and the ultra contagious variants. I feel like this nightmare is never going to end.

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Response to liberal_mama (Reply #23)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 02:50 PM

24. As long as there is a significant amount of unvaccinated, it won't end.

The fault lies squarely upon them.

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Response to liberal_mama (Reply #23)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 03:02 PM

25. It is scary, but at least there are things

that vaccinated people can do for further protection. I have underlying health issues, too, so I know how it feels to be vaccinated but still concerned.

This upcoming funeral rings warning bells in my head. I hope you do not plan on going, or feel obligated to. When he returns from the funeral, I would take extra measures, like not going into a room too soon after he had been there, and only when masked.

Maybe you already know that the single cloth or paper surgical masks are not as effective as wearing a NIOSH approved N95 mask. 3M sells their model #9010 on Amazon at $37.50 for a box of 50.

Or, instead of the N95 mask, you can double mask with different materials. For example, multilayer cloth mask of cotton or cotton polyester blend combined with a surgical mask. The nosepiece on the surgical mask seals well to prevent gaps and the material is very thin, triple layers. But those masks gap at the cheeks. A well made, adjustable loop cloth mask does not gap at the cheeks. So the combo is better than either one by itself.

Take care and be safe.


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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #3)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:21 AM

12. The variants that mutate to become more infectious push aside earlier viruses.

Delta is estimated to be twice as infectious as the original Coronavirus. So, it takes fewer people to spread it and it is harder for people to avoid being infected by it.

As far as transmission. We had international travel even during lockdowns. We can ban entry of people from countries that a virus is running rampant in, but if we donít also ban entry from any country that people from the blocked country can travel to, in rapid order a variant reaches our shores and start infecting people, who then infect other people.

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Response to wnylib (Original post)

Tue Jul 6, 2021, 11:21 PM

6. Are they able to tell from the swab test?

We're vaccinated at work and get pool tested weekly.

Are the local labs capable of checking this?

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Response to Throck (Reply #6)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:10 AM

11. A ordinary swab test won't tell you -

They have to sequence the genes. They aren't doing that on a routine basis, at least.

(It may be possible to do the sequence from the swab test - I just know that it isn't done as a matter of course.)

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Response to wnylib (Original post)

Tue Jul 6, 2021, 11:45 PM

7. Now the Lamda variant has entered the room

Although this one may not be any more dangerous a variant but all these mutations happening not good

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Response to luckone (Reply #7)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:25 AM

13. Isn't Lamba also known as Delta+? I am losing track.

As long as there are vaccine hesitant and masking resistant people, the virus will continue to mutate to become more infectious and ultimately defeat any immunity efforts (vaccines or natural immunity to an earlier variant).

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #13)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 08:38 AM

19. Lambda originated in Peru. It's not the same sequence as Delta plus, which is a variant of the

variant, I think.

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Response to GPV (Reply #19)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 06:43 PM

26. Ok, thanks. Makes me glad that I am vaccinated.

But just even getting moderate symptoms of Covid is something that I donít want to experience, so I still wear a mask inside when around people of unknown vaccination status. I will unmask only if I know that everyone that comes near me is vaccinated, even when outside.

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Response to wnylib (Original post)

Tue Jul 6, 2021, 11:48 PM

8. Just when you think the original strain was the final boss

Nope it was just the first encounter. The final boss fight had just begun

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Response to vercetti2021 (Reply #8)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:33 AM

14. Actually.

If there are unvaxxed and/or anti-mask people, the virus will continue to have a big Petri dish to make itself more contagious. SARS-COV-2 is not nearly as deadly as SARS (10% fatality rate) or MERS (35% fatality rate), so it doesnít scare the holy shit out of the anti-people.

You know what keeps me awake at night? If a SAR-COV-2 infects an asymptomatic carrier of either SARS or MERS then it is remotely possible to get a virus that combines the two coronaviruses, and as long as there is a pool of people large enough to allow itís spread, we will have massive death before the anti people wake the fuck up.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #14)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:40 AM

16. Once uptick in mortality hits 50% or more

We'll be at an extinction level event. And it could very well happen. In the game Plaque Inc. You can mutate your virus to become so much deadlier from DNA points essentially. Changing the viruses DNA to be easier to contract, more symptoms, lives longer in the air. I see Covid being that virus

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Response to vercetti2021 (Reply #16)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 12:47 AM

17. Yes. From a somewhat dispassionate standpoint, it will be interesting to see how

this ends, if I am still around. From a human standpoint, I am wondering what the fuck is wrong with the anti people.

I truly dread a very lethal virus in the times that we are in, with angry anti-science people looming large in society, many holding public office.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #17)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 01:15 AM

18. They'd end up dying

At least at first they will before it becomes more and more harder to prevent and then people who are vaccinated will eventually get it

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Response to vercetti2021 (Reply #18)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 06:48 PM

27. You hit on my concern, the virus variants will make the current batch of vaccines

obsolete. The thing has only been refining itís ability to infect species and become endemic in them for likely thousands of years. Now it is working on us. The problem is, how many of us will die before the virus reaches a comfortable steady-state within our species and stops killing?

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Response to wnylib (Original post)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 11:56 AM

20. It's their hoax - Donny Dotard

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Response to wnylib (Original post)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 01:14 PM

22. Hmmm!

On June 7, delta was 10% of all cases. In 30 days, it's around 52.
However, on June 7th, the 7 day moving average of total cases was 15,800. Yesterday, it was a bit under 14,000.
Curious.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/?fbclid=IwAR1vxfcHfMBnmTFm6hBICQcdbV5aRnMimeP3hVYHdlxJtFWdKF80VV8iHgE

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #22)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 07:05 PM

29. Overall cases going down due to

increased vaccinations, but Delta on the rise.

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Response to moonscape (Reply #29)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 08:03 PM

31. Sorry, No

Your answer does not address the curiosity I proposed. My numbers say EXACTLY what you replied, so your post is a tautology.
The correct answer requires correlating what I posted.
Cases flat while a more contagious variant dominates infections suggests....

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Response to ProfessorGAC (Reply #22)

Wed Jul 7, 2021, 07:48 PM

30. You can kinda tell actual case numbers are of little consequence to some

I check them every day. Theyíre more relevant than a million Peter Hotez fear bait tweets or unverifiable anecdotal stories that have become common and taken as gospel here.

Numbers were more or less the same today as well.

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